i remain in typ (3x short tech), vxx, tbt, and short some individ stocks like GILD (yes might need to take a loss on the GILD, will see... others still have a valid trade premise. The TYP is red now, but still valid for me. SImilar to when my longs were red around Feb 6, but then moved green. GILD is currently the only "iffy" one, somewhat of a mess
***************************************************************************
It seems that everyone is getting excited about this recent rally. During the daily ramblings today, I mentioned several things that I see as bearish, that I've noticed during the day today, as well as in the last few days.
Yes, I realize that I am once again in the minority here. When the QQQQ were down and most were bearish, I was calling for a move in qqqq to 44.47. The target was achieved, and qqqq made a slightly higher price. Maybe it could pop up higher. But overall, I am mid-term bearish.
I still will be looking for that 3 day bearish eve star candle pattern tomorrow (that I postulated earlier today).
WE COULD GO HIGHER, but I still see at least a minor pullback, then maybe 1110/20 (if we get there at all), then 1030, then a bounce, then a break under 1030.
Other notes:
rally is on declining volume
could see 1110/15 but should go down first if we do, then up 1110
60 min macd hist momen declining (lower bars)
qqqq bear rising wedge 60min. macd hist falling (of course, wedges can convert to bullish up channels instead).
Today during the day, i made some comments. I've looked at the charts this evening again, and still see things the same way.
Below, I've cut and pasted some comments I made during the day today. I believe these are all still valid.
0448
qqqq daily volume is very low the last 7 trading days, prices can drift up until we see volume. i expect a move down whenever volume returns. we could drift up all
week, with minor pullbacks.
0349
i have an "early short swing" setup now
0307
this rally up has been ...advancing prices on declining vol... but of course we've seen THAT before, sometimes relentlessly... bearish
0257
i like the vix action here... suggesting a bounce up in the vix (down spx)
0241
a tbt close over 49.62 would be nice for tbt longs.. last 4963
0230
a vix 60min close over 22.67 would be bullish for vix, bearish for spx... last 21.90 ... charts suggest a move higher in vix
1357
on vix...compare 2/2 and 2/3 and with yesterdays candle and todays candel.. what do u see? suggests that vix will move up (spx down) in coming days
1356
6 days of spx clawing up to undo one red candle....below the 50 MA, lower highs, lower lows, ... to me this is bearish still
1328
Alt view: bearish ... look at spx candles on 2/1 and 2/2. then 2/3 and 2/4
1258
qqqq can chop around in this narrow range, push it up to overhought, and then the TYP should do well.. last qqqq 44.44
*****************
1249
the qqqq daily spin top could possibly set up a bearish 3 day eve star pattern tomorrow
9:16
i see qqqq just over the 4447 now just over my feb 6 target of 4451.. watching to see if they decline after open or striver for 4471. I do expect a pullback to around 44 to backtest, at least, sometime in the coming hours
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
No comments:
Post a Comment