Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

416
the 119.51 and 119.60 prints were for 500k and 1million shares, red

352
4pm method remains hedged long and short sds sso, may change at 358pm unsure,,,in either case its v close

320
look at ES 3min vol bars,, suggests lower ES

248
at the moment,,, 4pm method would sell the sso and keep sds,,,suggesting lower spx in comoing days weeks but could easily have a signal change b4 the close,,, 4pm signal will not generally stay hedged long and short for many days

231
trading idea: on large block sales, expect an initial move opposite the direction of the block trade, then another larger move in same


direction as the block,,, positions can be taken on the first contra-move,,, this is what we saw on the 3million red share sale in SPY earlier today
 
 
229
theres the SPY move well below 119.18 expected 6 minutes ago, 118.77 last

227
INTC seems weak,,,it couldnt hit the 2047 trgt even on the fomc surge

226
fake move 1 up,,,now move 2 down usually continues after sometimes a move 3 up fomc,,,should go lower,, the FOMC first move is usually a headfake direction

223
no large blocks in SPY since announcement,,,suggests a move back below the  119.18 spy

219
here are those typical long leg doji candles after fomc,,mentioned this morn

149
correction: it entered sds at 27.22 on oct 25 and sso at 42.54 on oct 25

149
well theoretically it can give gains on both sds and sso since they were not entered same day

148
for 2010 ytd it had 100% wins but clearly it will give a loss this time on one of the 2 hedges,,,bias down

145
this is the only time during 2010 it has been indecisive using a hedge of sso and sds at same time

145
the 4pm indicator for SPX remains in rare position of long and short,,hedged in both sds and sso,,, v rare to be hedged on that signal,  bias is down,,, the signal measures 3-60 day trends with avg 2-3 weeks, not intraday scalps

130
pomo crash protection team tomorrow

127
spy moved up to the 115.30 and reversed lower, last 119.13,,,could get some more chop b4 lower

126
another 3million shares red spy sold at 119.18,,,rigth near the prior 119.15 red for 600k

109
csco hit .58 trgt,,,watching to see if reverses lower in this area

105
cancelling order limit to short aapl for now

1252
INTC remains in very dangerous terr for long atm,,still short intc swing

1237
shorting csco 2345, close enough,may add more later

1231
lower csco lim to 2351 short

1218
SPY 3min trendline resis 11920 adn 11930

1217
csco 1min chart suggests a 10 cent pop higher to .58,,,which aligns with mon n tues 60min lows

1211
csco tgt .58 ,...still trying the .56 short

1204
normally it will move over the 11915 then continue below it,,,not a tradeable bounce but tradeable short on bounce

1202
SPY red sale, 629,000 shares at 119.15,,,big enough to warrant attn

1154
lim short CSCO 2356 if able, good for next hour

1144
ES 1189 resist held on first try as expected

1144
cancelling INTC short 2047,,,will do manually mayb later

1140
csco daily chart is interesting,,,it shows that csco could break its daily uptrend line simply by moving sideways not down

1135
later also FOMC is likely to produce some volatile long leg dojis

1126
no long scalp setup in SPX to hold for more than 15min yet,,,may get one but not b4 12pm

1117
es 1189 sellers should be waiting, good for next 14 min

1115
could take partial profits here scalp JPM cover .14,,, smaller pos would hold for lower to cover

1112
i'm only doing combo scalp/swings today,,,if scalp trgt is hit i'll take profits on partial shares, if not then will hold overnite swing

1102
JPM sell alert at 3721

1046
we got the up, then sideways, on 3min ES chart,,now down

1031
lim add INTC short 2047 if able

1029
intc short looks good here,,,i may add more intc shorts today swing, 2035, waiting for now, 2035 last

1022
INTC is resting right on support precariously here,,,needs to move higher else risks a break lower to 2020 and 2000 targets ,,, i am still swing short intc

1011
the move down there in ES was the "down" part of 930 AM roadmap,,now entering up, folllowed by sideways

1010
*31474 not 31505

1009
the lim short aapl 313.87 is in expectation that it won't hit the 315.05 horizontal high trgt

1007
but i do have a "spike higher" short aapl 313.87, good only for today

1005
aapl pierced yest trgt 311.40 higher and reversed lower under it,,,,31120 last,,,aapl shorts could work around here 311/312 but i'm not taking a positino here

949
csco just hit 2336 trgt but did not take the short,,already swing short csco, may add later more

944
JPM may wante 3737/3740 but i wanted to participate so added some at .24, so higher JPM is ok for short setup atm

935
CANCELLING csco limit for now,,,since have many JPM shares for combo scalp/swing

935
filled on JPM short 3724

934
also will lim add shorts in JPM 37.24 if filled

933
i will lim short csco 2336 again if filled, last 2327,,,may not make it that hi but only want "extremes" rite now

930
charts ES suggest something like down, up, sideways, up higher,, down lower to hit below ES 1185 today or tomorrow,, with all of that except below 1085 happening today, with all of that except below 1085 happening today, tho could see under 85 today

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".