Wede thoughts

545
FAZ moved up about 1% afterhours from todays close. i changed my mind and decided to take profits here, because i have other short positions that i'm keeping.

401
FAZ jumped to 2570 AH,,,still holding tho

359
on 60min ES chart, that big red candle on volume, followed by selling near close,,to me is one indication that sellers are not done yet

356
wow ANN near that .80 support,, ANN down 4% today

353
inconclusive on my gap analysis,,,tho gap down more likely,,,but timing analysis for SPX still has 4-8 more hours on its downward bias / short rally status tho

351
HPQ has dropped over 16% since entry

349
HPQ just keeps falling,,,down another 3% today :)

349
i'm not holding TVIX overnite,,,but will hold the shorts in ANN HPQ NSC,,and long FAZ

346
stop tightened now on TVIX to prevent a loss

325
first day in a week i thinkk,,,that its managed over 78%

324
80%,, only prob is support is close by lower so down may be limitied, suggests test of low, it could break it

319
depending on todays close, gap analysis might suggest a gap down, ignoring news and first of month,,but analysis incomplete atm

305
78% could cause a test of low of day, and a new daily low

258
76% ES sell now

255
in coming hours/days if EUO gets 19.88 i'll take profits on half of swing from 18.76

248
tomorrow, opp may present on TLT long swing,,needs a few more hours first imo

245
faz "buy" rang

241
watching for vix to shoot up before close some

235
ES still on 74% sell short scalp intraday, needs 74--85% to really move

234
i dont expect 2380 to break rigth away on ann,,,but if it does,,,,another drop likely

229
looking for EUO swing to continue higher tomorrow,,poss take profit on half tomorrow, unsure,,longer term 20--22 targets on euo, last 1900

220
if it can get over 1373,,es may try to test its high of day instead,,,imo under 1372 bearishy

219
ES was rejected right at trgt 1372 (prior supp turned resist),,,wathing now if it stays below 1372,,,simple uncomplicated horiz prior supp break 1372

1256
will sell some of the TVIX if it hits 1698

1249
74% ES sell signal just rang at 136850

1233
took TVIX here 16.51

1200
1368 es short could work now, imo,,,,tho i'm not trading it--

1159
for scalpers, a short opp is setting up for ES,,,not quite ready yet but could be any minute

1155
ES could go either way here: 1367 pullback to new daily low, or creep higher first....aggressive could trade the short if it moves lower

1144
poss short may present if ES can creep to 1370--72 area (creep not surge)

1143
mentioned yesterday, still watching, that Since Jan 18, there have been 3 "sets" of red candles on ES,,,that often marks top,,today thus far we have a red candle, and it may move lower from here in coming days,, 3 sets of red candles is "similar" to 5 waves up, for Elliot wavers

1132
watch for a possible daily SPY bear engulfing pattern,,no matter what it does, spy will have a tail today if not the bear engulf,, also a poss SPY bear key reversal day with a higher high and lower low, if it closes near the lows, tho a low thats lower than now is preferable

1128
that bounce on es was weak,,,is breakable here for new daily lows imo

1122
bulls need es over 1355 imo,,, if it moves back to 1350, the bounce will likely be sold, as it will not be making a higher low on the daily chart

1119
ES has extremely weak bounce so far, could be in trouble intraday, for a run to the second ES trgt lower

1055
huge drop in ES, now stalling as-ES right at support, watching to see if bnc is weak or not

1053
NSC puts up 50% from yesterday,,,,lower trgts should give much more

1052
faz now at trgt 1,,,holding it for trgt 2 higher

1047
26.97 faz target #2

1046
SPY  SPX still on the 8-12 hour "short" bias that started yesterday

1040
NSC short targets are 6775 and 6500 trgts lower, last 6930...if 6750 breaks the 6500 trgt is poss

1031
EUR/USD now at daily 3 day support,,,if this breaks, could see further intense selling on euro, for now support is holding but looks breakable

1027
EUR/USD just dropped sharply lower, may see a reaction in ES SPX
meanwhile still holding the EUO from yest

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

352
and NSC for transports

352
yea,,,personally i chose shorts in ANN and financials (faz)

351
imo: short euro, short spx, short qqq, short dow, short russel all look good for swing entries to short at the close,,also short ANN ,, will look for long opps later in individ stocks

214
if es 1363 breaks lower  then 1355 trgt

213
SPX on a 4-12 trading hour short rally, swing short setup now,

148
here is the 1368 test---watching

138
if es goes to 1368 it could lead to 1364 es test

132
72% es sell signal intraday, needs 78-85% to move

118
From Jan 23, ES has 3 sets of red candles on daily, often tops come after 3 sets

114
SPX is in process of forming a sideways with bearish bias swing trade pattern, to last 4-12 trading hours in spx (not futures time)

1242
  on ES 60min chart: if the bounce from 1365 is under 1375, then the 60min turns bearish on break of 1365 and better confirmed under 1350, as an exampl

1238
1370 ES sell alert rang at 70%, intraday, needs 78--85% to move

1224
still looking to add ANN shorts, if it can get higher, 2500 or higher

1221
NSC is a transport component, weaker than the sector,,, NSC puts could work

1004
bought EUO swing 18.75, may scalp half of it

9:22 AM
oftentimes the market moves because of supply and demand and price, not because of news. the media always needs to give a "reason" for the movement, so they assign it erroneously to a news event.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

342
ZSL here, or short slv, could work for swing,, i'm going to keep 25% of SLV shorts, and take profit on 25% (having taken profit on other 50% earlier)

339
i'm keeping this FAZ stuff overnite,

324
still trying for trgt 3 on second half of slv tho,for now

323
silver breaking, almost at trgt 2 now

316
took profit on half silver scalps, keeping other half for now

253
if ANN moves high enough it would be  gift imo, and will add shorts on ANN,,no added entries yet, let them try for 25 or higher and use up energy

251
i think SLV may hit its 3425 trgt today, tho holding out for 3378 for now

245
1364--1370 is the ES range imo,,inside of that its all noise

128
2485 VXX could work, but i'm not taking it

233
still on 74% es sell signal, intraday scalp

231
SLV broke support, 3425 next trgt lower

226
3445 SLV  silver testing intraday support,,looks breakable lower

158
watching 1364 ES: over it bullish, a break bearish intraday,,,looks breakable lower after stall first

157
74%

155
3378 SLV trgt, may cover sooner since actively trading it

154
added faz #2 at 2540

153
72% ES sell signal just rang at 1366.50

111
just made a marginal new high of day in TLT

1128
started FAZ 25.72

1115
ES is close to giving a scalp short signal intraday, imo

1112
shorted SLV silver 34.58, it may try for 3465--3500 first, but entering a piece short here

944
I'll take 5% profit on 75% of ANN shares short at 23.30 if it gets there. still see lower ANN below 23 to 22 and 20ish later, but will actively trade it.

917
TLT is trading above its 118.00 swing target 1, at 118.42 last

909
Friday's gap analysis proved accurate. On friday I said that gap analysis suggested a gap down today Monday. ES futures are down 6.5 points now.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

359
Monday gap down, analysis suggests imo

352
2487 vxx stop raised

vxx stp

351
2487 vxx stop raised

349
tlt stop 117.33 raised

337
12,972 last dow....they want 13000 close ...will they get it?
es still on scalp sell,,vxx on buy scalp

331
Did retail sell at the open today, b4 weekend? possibly
If so, may see a move lower into close. on spx

327
agressive scalp still valid on vxx,into the close, same stop

316
Something to think about:  Studies show currently Gen X and Gen Y hate stocks, not investing in them. And Baby Boomers are starting to cash in as they retire.  Multi year 5-15 years could be very turbulent in stock market, until the Gen X and Gen Y decide they want stocks,,,,where's the demand? vs the baby boomer selling supply

311
aggressive could buy back any vxx sold at 2505 here at 2488, stop 2467

301
2505 took off more vxx from 2380,,,have last 25% of shares now

251
ANN--possibly putting in a bear reversal day today, unsure, could be in troubl, ann,,, but good for shorts

249
that VXX spike did not take out my .67 stop,,,still in vxx

245
VXX stop remains the same at .67 for now, for second half

244
1366.50 es short idea from 12:31 PM,,makes sense to tighten stops here, or take profit on half, 1362 es,,,,i didnt short it

237
76% now on es short scalp signal

236
SHORTED the DOW 13,000, swing posiion multiweek hold

234
117.22 stop raised on tlt, last 11751

231
TLT now testing its high of day, trying for the 117.80--118.20 trgt, 117.50 last

228
2467 tite VXX stop to protect profits, in case of move down, can always buy back

224
either TLT holds 117.25 or I'm out, with the stop just below it

224
raised stop on TLT scalp to 117.07 to protect a vicious move down in the 2-3pm timeframe

220
toook the 4% profit on VXX entry from this morn, on half, holding half, as it went over .73 limit order

216
i'll take off a piece under the trgt at .73 if able

215
VXX moved nicely from 2380 to 2455 last,,,still watching the 2477ish target 1

118
74% now short es intraday, needs 78--85% to move,,still see vxx and tlt as better than short es or short spy

1242
TLT hurdeled the 117.44 trgt, watching to see if it can get .57 and then 117.80--118.25ish

1237
72% now, short signal ES

1233
60 cents move on TLT is approx like 6 points on ES

1231
for scalps ,,,TLT long better than SPY short, imo,,or TMF 2x long

1231
es close to 1369.50 priuor daily high, may try for that, or overshoot to 1372

1229
ES short scalp signal at 70%, es 1366.50,,yesterday signal did not work, got stuck on 78% with no movement

1227
over 117.44 TLT would give the 118.00 area trgt a good chance, last 117.30

1226
VXX waking up?

1137
scalp (diff from swing from 116.00 tlt) long TLT 117.20 stop 116.73

1050
ANN position trades: lower targets 22.50 and 20, then even lower, 8%--22% move
targets 8%--22% move lower in ANN


1040
ANN swing still shortable here 2438 imo

1035
VXX 2385, trgt 1 is 2477

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

247
NSC can really fall hard, if IYT transports fall, swing

244
broken record ,,,still at 78% sell,,,its not perfect
remains stubbornly at 78% tho


242
poss vxx dbl bottom 3min charts

234
changed order, shorted ANN here 24.40,,,may add more later,unsure

230
If ANN hits 24.89 i will swing short it,,,second entry.... last ANN gave 15% profit, this one 10-15% trgts on re-entry

213
NSC Mar12 70 Put at 1.85/1.95

206
TLT hit the 117.20 trgt, for swing,,,still have higher swing trgts later

201
3min vxx has a higher hi, needs a higher low now, then should move nicely, if it gets it

153
NSC and HPQ may both present swing short re-entry opps, wathcing them

141
for candle watchers, VXX 60 min chart is building a bull morn star (3 candles) and bull harami pattern (2 candles)

136
2550--2600 vxx trgt, stall there wqould be ok

135
active trades could take off VXX if it stalls when ES hits 1355

134
60min TLT triple top--they usually break higher given the underlying stats

131
vxx hit micro trgt 1 .57

124
tho its unusual to be at 78% without much ES price movement, so maybe something else happening, or just earlier than normal

118
stopped out, took TLT scalp profit

117
116.67 tite stop on 75% TLT,, as TLT is right at resist trgt 1 now and under the stretch trgt 1

113
117.20 TLT trgt 1

109
VXX on a buy at 2437

105
1355 test on ES suggested soon

103
78%,,,getting stronger sell tho no price movement yet on ES

102
76% sell on es now

1250
if it hits 1357 ES, it will "probaby" kick it up to 76--78%, unsure

1249
ES still on the short scalp sell 72% ,,,but unknown if it wants 1362 higher first, or the 1357 requirede break lower first

1151
ES now at 74% sell short scalp, tho still near same price 1359

1136
es 1359.50 short could work here, need to watch to see if breaks  1357, would be early entry b4 break

1132
TLT scalp buy signal 72% at 116.15 last

1131
HPQ still rallying, now up to 2760 last,,still waiting to re-enter swing shorts on it, HPQ now down 5% from yest close, vs 6% earlier

1024
TLT long 116.25, scalp

1008
out of 75% of HPQ for now, last 25% shares stop set higher near breakeven as always,,,looking to reshort HPQ maybe today

1006
2730--2770 bounce on hpq could hjappen, not wanting to ride it up that high

1005
to protect profit, put stop on HPQ 27.18 stop in case of sudden surge higher,,trying for lower trgts meanwhile

957
hpq---else i will likely take profit on half today after a small bounce, then lower off that bounce to retest of daily low or new lower low

956
if HPQ can make it lower to 2630, i'll take profits on half of the shorts, then look to re-short bounce or sideways

945
a 3-5% decline in spx, likely will be bought on the first trip down,,the real test for bulls vs bears comes after that, imo

944
ANN also hit its re-short # yest at 24.80, likely going to 22.50 and then 20-21...last 2416

942
HPQ market maker reports since Jan suggested they were running that stock up, not buying it, before earnings,

940
HPQ likely has another 10% lower move in it, even aftetr todays 6% single hour decline

935
HPQ  down a whopping 6% this morn,,still see lower HPQ for swings,

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wede thoughts

407
HPQ now at 2808 afterhours, vs 2896 close :)

359
HPQ falling back near low of day, down 1.4% today

357
1937 TZA trgt not getting hit, yet

354
80%

347
this is the second part of the down, which should be larger than first, according to pattern, on ES

347
tza broke the .16

326
78%

323
if tza hits 1912, should break 1916

321
that was the ES bounce mentioned b4,,,this time if ES goes down, should move lower than first try, if the pattern holds


318
interesting: TZA gave a buy alert,,,IWM and TNA did not give sells,,usually are simultaneous

316
tza 1900, swapped for the SPY SPXU

303
76% now

257
74% now on es sell signal,scalpo

256
if it gets over 2617 vxx may move higher nicely,, above mkt buy stop longs could work,,2589 last

250
HPQ may get some action in next 90 minutes, due to earnings reports

242
half off for 2 points scalp,,took small profit on half since the pattern often boucnes first


240
1354 es scalp trgt 1 if able

239
scalp stops set near breakeven

236
usually this pattern, into the 415pm close,,will move lower, then bounce, then the second move lower is larger

234
shorted 1358 ES

233
ES selll signal intraday, at 72%, at 1358 lastt

101
vxx 2621 here could work, scalp

-------
HPQ continues its downward treck nicely, down 1.56% from yest close

TLT higher

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

316
VXX 15min chart has sloppy bull asc triangle / coil

258
out of tlt scalp breakeven, holding vxx scalp half

245
TLT 115.88 trgt

244
1358 es minor break ,,,1353 next

238
ES now testing impt support at 1358 ;ast,,,with 1353 supp under it if 1358 breaks

237
2870 vxx trgt if able, last 2688

217
HPQ weaker today than spy

216
took off half VXX scalp at 1% profit, TLT scalp 10 cent loss atm,,may exit TLT scalp

1120
vxx needs over 2663 to move ,,,above that may pop nicely

1119
agress vxx scalp 2650 could work too here, or tvix

1116
TLT 116.62 here scalp, or TMF 2x, could work...   .20--1.00 trgt TLT scalp

1030
Last week I had a 20% profit target for VOG. today, VOG overshort the 20% profit target.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

401
nice move in TLT at end of day,,,still time to enter or add more TLT next week

357
took half of VXX off , the second entry accomplished its purpose in reducing basis

336
2633 vxx, added

308
indicators suggests that VXX may move up in the final hour, 70% of conditions met, below the 78-85% tho


151
vxx swing looks good here:    daily: broke dtl, backtest,,,right now has a higher low (unconfirmed since could go lower) with an equiv high: usually goes back up when like that

142
out of EUO for now 1958 vs 1956 entry this morn
on sidelins in the tight range
I still see higher EUO,,,exiting only to reduce risk, due to number of open positions in other stocks

1229
vxx still buyable here imo for scalps/swings

1203
EUO looks "safer" than TLT for swings, imo

1201
vxx 3min starting to move now :)

1158
73% VXX buy signal, at 2677 last, or tvix

1152
VXX trgt 2807 to start

1147
2673 vxx agressive long here,,,EARLY entry, to scalp and swing both

1136
TVIX VXX still building its prev mentinoed pb and base on 3min and 15min charts, not done yet

1112
alternatives to short ES, which should also do well if ES SPX moves lower:   short euor (long EUO),,,

1108
EUO first trgtr 1972 if able from 1956 entrry, may trade it more actively in and out





1106
TMF is 3x alt to TLT 1x but i prefer TLT for higher vol and better fills

1105
took tlt off 116.40, to buy back lower, scalping and swinging it both, from 116.00 entry this morn,,,about equiv to 4 pts on ES

1103
ES 1352--1354 will likely hold first test,,,a break of that could see a 10 point drop after stalling after such break lower,,,but bounce first more likely

1058
tho scalping TLT or TMF would be better safer,imo

1057
ES should bounce after testing supp a lil lower,,the bounce may be shortable for scalps

1055
shorted euro using EUO, 1956, will scalp and swing it both

1050
vxx still doing its 3min pb, not done yet

1004
next pb on tvix or vxx 3min charts may present a long opp,,,may take awhile for pb as this pop up may not be done yet

948
 TVIX 15min and 60min charts suggest choppy next 1-3 hours,,,i might join in long later,but waiting for now,,,,
tvix bias still lower/sideways a bit longer imo

834
bought back TLT pre-market in the 116.00 area, target 118.7 to start,,, over time TLT may break the daily downtrend for a run to 121, 125, 130 later

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

419
ES needs to hold 1354 afterhours here or else it likely will move lower a few more points

405
ES tested 1354, watching to see if goes under it

352
poss es below 1354 by 415pm

350
my charts suggest a turn lower for swings in spx

332
i'm closing the SPY scalps today by 4pm, or perhaps AH up to 8pm, but will be covering them, whether for gain or loss

312
70%,,,still not at 78%

248
68% now

238
at 1356 es

237
64% sell signal on ES intraday, needs 78--85% to move, but building atm

216
i have a lim order to cover half of SPY shorts at 135.27 to take profit on half there, if trgt is hit

152
Added to SPY shorts here next 2 layers 3 and 4...at 135.95

1147
MPWR up another 2% today, stilll see higher on it fo eventual 9%--11% profit taking area

1143
AAPL is DOWN today 1.6% vs SPY up 0.6% and qqq up .24%

1140
i have an order to cover SPY short and take profits if it hits 134.61

1138
SPY just hit the 135.40 trgt, may go higher, but see lower later even if higher first

1137
 i took the short at spy 135.39 instead of .40

952
i will short SPY if it hits 135.40 before 2pm, have limit order in place,,be back in a few hours,,,

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

353
out of silver,, small profit but not much

311
3min ES bull hammers, intraday value only

301
HPQ might put in a dark cloud cover candlestick today bearish, but support may hold on it here,,,it would need to pierce lower into yesterdays green candle to give a dark cloud

253
slv trgt .54 next but watching if it breaks to a .70 trgt instead,,,a stall would suggest exit at .54ish trgt,watching reactions

251
still see higher bounce intraday on es, not finished yet

228
took half of SLV off 3245,,,to reduce risk

219
added 3225

216
will add SLV 32.24 limit if filled, last 32.3

158
74% scalp buy signal just rang, es 1346

156
ES still looks like it wants to bounce higher here, last 1345,, aggressive could scalp long daytrade

115
LOL mpwr 3min chart actually moving HIGHER thru this nastiness on spx down

108
MPWR is not affected at all by this sell off in spx or aapl,

1258
broken record, i know, but check out daily IYT candle--transports--IYT now at support test,,, a break here could be disastrous, but bounce likely first

1256
DXD short dow---outperforming SDS short spx

1251
ES should bounce now, off 1347,,not trading it long

1251
this is still part of the "down" from prior pattern mentioned, the bounce may be shortablle, ES

1226
slv triggered buyback while typing, at .67,,,,could still see .50 or .40 lower but buy triggered for scalps

1225
active slv scalps that took some off at .77 could buy back soon here, near the .60--.67 area

1222
ES is now forming the pb mentioned b4 for the intraday pattern,,,still not finished, could take awhile

1203
buying the pb long on es could work too, depending on charts at the time

1202
ES pattern suggests wait for move lower on 3 min, then a rally, and then that rally may be shortable scalp,,,could take awhile to bake

1152
SLV 3277 is a trgt area to sell pieces ,,if have large position

1148
SLV,,,may be in and out fast for small amounts, and will keep another piece for higher levels,,,that is i will layer out, since i doubled shares in it

1146
SLV intraday scalp buy now at 76%. last 3272

1127
doubled SLV shares here, same price , for a move to .85--.99

1121
if it gets 3277, slv should give 3285--3300ish pop higher

1118
bte, for silver, this entry is a bit early, if it pulls back i might add more,,,bought 15min chart support but could break to next supp lower on slv...or may add more at higher price if it moves up,,, but 3min chart on SLV was suggesting a poss pop higher now, so took initial entry,,, a short entry may present later today in slv

1114
3285  3300  3318   3340 slv trgts,,,keeping trgt simple, just prior horizontal resist as trgts

1109
went long SLV 32.60, for quick trade, to later short it on reverse

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

246
SLV did not hit 3260,,cancelling order to short, for now. may reconsider later.


147
i will short scalp silver via SLV if it hits 32.60, 32.52 last

126
.64 stop spy...hitting .62 but not stopped at .63

117
134.66 stop spy on half,,,again just manually trailing lower

113
stop spy 134.71 on half to protect profits

110
spy may stall or bounce here, tho move down rather heavy

109
5 more poitns lower to es scalp trgt 2,

102
still have half sco, manually trailing the stop to protect profits, not posting all stop updates here ,

1258
then 1335 es trgt lower

1256
1341 interim ES trgt on scalps

1255
134.01 limit cover trgt on SPY, if able

1215
took profit on half of oil shorts, good enough, can always reshort, still have half

1210
if oil moves up now on 3min chart i'll take profit on half, about 1.5%ish,, 3min needs to berak support or form wedge, else will bounce

1155
Here is the expected test on oil 101,,if it breaks, another 50cents to 1dollar lowe4r,, stall likely at support test,,,watching reactions ,,,to see if it makes sense to take some profit or wait

1151
15min ES chart suggests to wait for long entry, until a pb on 3min chart, intraday, imo,,,so tried a short at prior es resist on 60min chart

1149
oil could be in troubel,,,stil short

1145
shorted at 1345 es,,, 2--10 point trgt

1124
oil looks headed to 101 supp test,,if that breaks, it could fall another 50 cents to $1 fast, tho generally expect a stall or bounce at support

1124
MPWR could drop to 1680--1700,,,or go higher to 1757

1122
OIL has dropped back down, ES may follow it

1119
took off MPWR, half, here to lock some profits, for 2.3% profit from this morn,,,still see the higher 10% profit but trading it actively

1059
spx SPY 60min chart is on a "short rallys" setup, for next 4 hours imo

1056
still same es trgt #3==1335

1055
1344 aggress shorts could take 2 points here on half or all, with half better to hold for lower

1053
72%

1053
 a test of ES lows likely now, will be watching if it gets the test, if it makes a lower low, and how much lower the lower low is if it gets one

1043
tho the break of 1343 es today may foreshadow an expanded larger range on es today

1040
68% now at 1343

1037
at es 1344,,,ES intraday scalp sell signal now at 61%,,,it needs 72% min, and 78-85% to really move,,,but the 61% is giving warnings, or poss short rally setups

1032
60min HPQ has bear Head SHoulders, from Feb 1

1026
i'm not shorting es here, since have other positions, incl short oil

1026
es 1344 aggress short could work here, would need to be willing to exit at loss and reenter, or scale in wider stops

1023
bounce on the first test of 1343 would be normal, what's impt is how high the bounce is, for bears, imo

1013
oil is now at scalp trgt 1, about 60 cents move lower,,,other lower scalp trgt are lower than here, scaling out gradually, or setting tite stop on a piece here, makes sense,, SCO up 1% in 15 minutes since entry

1008
1343 support has broken es,,,bounces still shortable imo

1005
1343 es test here, or near here soon,,, a bounce may be shortable, if it holds,,,

957
shorted oil resist 101.70, using sco etf

954
in sco 3630 to short oil, may close sco position today

950
still waiting for NSC to rally up a little, to re-short it second time swing short, or maybe CHRW...NSC = play on transports sector

948
second swing trgt MPWR is 10.2%ish profit if hit

945
MPWR long jumped 1.6% in 10 minutes since entry, but holding it longer this time, for swing scalp combo

942
 MPWR it has a nice bull flag from Jan 16 that broke higher, after earnings, and pb a little since, for new highs expected after 1870 test

936
bought back MPWR, long swing, that i took profit on yesterday, for higher in coming hours days, sold at 17.50 yest, 16.89 last

930
OIL   GOLD  SILVER may all offer some nice trading opps, both scalp and swing, in addition to ES TF SPY QQQ etc

926
would set up a 1335 test lower next, if broken

925
over 1343, ES is not v bearish, but a break of 1343 to 1340 would set up bearishness imo

919
Yesterday I mentioned to look for a gap down this morn. ES now down 4 points, But ES futures are now near support, so watching reaction here. 1343 impt support area.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

619
tightening stops for ES short scalps, will take profits on scalps from 1348 tonight, with tite stop,,,,keeping the short swings from ES 1352,,, tightened stop on scalp piece to reduce risk, holding only the swing piece,,,swing from 3 days ago, scalp from today,,,,oil was much better intraday trading today than es

324
still on 72% sell es

308
MPWR just dropped, pressured lower by ES, but no-reentry yet on mpwr, prob will not reenter today

305
added second piece of ES short scalp there

305
72% confid ES sell signal, intraday only not swing, at 1349.75

303
being proactive since ES suggesting it may move lower, may pull MPWR down

302
took quick 1%ish profit on MPWR,,will look to reenter later again

146
went LONG in MPWR, swing, at 17.33  17.34

129
PKD still looks like it will make the higher trgt, but elected to just exit it

129
i'm out of PKD for now,,,may enter later,,,it hit the .871 trgt and stalled, no sense letting profit slip by, tho it did not hit its .95 target

118
despite move up, ES still buildking a sell signal intraday

1232
es starting to move lower now,,,watching to see if sustains

1227
SHORTED ES 1346.50, agressive entry short, similar to aggress entry long setup on friday, scalp trgts to start vs swing

1221
its starting to turn from buy to sell,intraday

1220
ES buy signal confid now weaker,,,suggests "do nothing" in ES atm lol,,buy signal gave a measley 2 points, why not worth trading the narrow range, oil has better range

1204
also the US dollar moving higher intraday, and while oil has ignored the dollar quite a bit, wanted to lock the profit here since not a swing

1202
took p[rofits on oil scalp 100.10 from 99.50 entry
may buiy back, may go higher, but 3min warns of pb

1159
heres the expected pullback on TLT<,,may present a long swing opp,,,still no entry imo

1130
100.50 and 101.20 oil next trgts micro, last 100.22,, will take profits on half via pre-existing order if it hits 100.50,,,should stall if it gets there, and stall near here also likely as it tests todays high

1127
oil is moving more than ES,,,since entry Oil moved equiv of about 5-6 ES points, vs 1 point for es since entry

1126
oil scalp up 65 cents ,,,watching the reactions here at 100.15,,still see higher poss intraday

1115
not much room higher on es bounce tho, better to trade oils wider range for day/ scalps imo,,or silver

1113
ES is still on its bounce alert from earlier, alert not expired, intraday

1112
TLT should pull back intraday, may give a long opp entry

1110
PKD pulled back and hit 6.81 trgt, llooking for 695-6.99 next still

1041
HPQ short swing starting to kick in now, testing friday low, hpq down almost 1% vs es up almost 1%

1027
ES bounce signal 72% confid, intraday, at 1345

1017
long on the 99.50 oil futures test

1017
went long oil here using USO, alt is uco 2x but uso has higher volume so using 2x shares in it,,, oil trade i do not plan to hold for that long

1009
PKD looks like it wants to break 6.81 higher for 6.95--6.99 trgts, last 6.78

959
PKD long up 2% from friday close, if it can get 6.81 then next trgt 6.99

957
TLT...the first pb here "should bounce, ".....as the 15 and 60 min charts are aligned..no entry yet

956
TLT quicker trade: waiting awhile for the 15min chart candles to settle down, get smaller, then may go long, with a quick exit, until TLT decides if it wants higher or lower on the daily\\

954
llooking to short next rally in euro, or long EUO on next pb, waiting

950
looking for a spot to re-short NSC again, waiting on it awhile for now

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

405
 i took loss on last TLT TMF today on its move higher for "less painful" loss,,,,not sure of what TLT does now, so will watch and look for re-entry in TLT long or short later

400
but exited 1 min early,,,scalp only from 5267,,,es 1334 in 1340 out

359
out 5290 on second half sso

355
llooking 5304 to fill 5300

353
sso 5300 trgt

352
out of TLT TMF with a loss,,will explain later why

345
filled. took profit on half

344
half off sso 5284 if filled

333
apl survived the stop and popped up on 3min chart

330
mental stop .74,,,not hard,,will see reaction if hit

322
5285 sso resist

321
53.22 trgt if able sso....may not make it

313
took profit on NSC 7142,,,will look to reenter short later

306
5266 sso,,v agress trade, taking it long

303
possibility only, no setup yet

302
LONG on ES could work into the close or 415 hour for agressive brave, setting up , scalp only not swing, setup not triggered

256
still in the NSC short,,,tite stop not hit yet...try to ride lower

254
actually i think its more dangerous for the bulls: if we do not sell hard into the close today, but rather have a spin top candle like we have now, on spy

252
1335 and 1339 rnage now on ES, not myuch happening unless one breaks

249
7151 last

249
stop 7156 on NSC scalp short from this morn at 71.96

hmm sell signal now 67%,,,may bounce ES


237
out at 19.26===;last 1930 tvix

233
1912 stop tvix now v tite

232
1912 micro tvix, looks lower then maybe buyable again

226
1-6minutes: es setup to test 1334 triggered, watching if it works or not


224
APL is about 20 cents from stopping me out, for a LOSS if stopped

217
7095 trgt below the 7105 low on NSC, if high vol hits can get a lil extra,,,

215
trying to see if NSC tests its low of day, if so would give $1 move on the short from this morn

210
it is NOT unusual to see no panic on a bear EVE star reversal on dailyk,,,if thats what we get today,, panic sets in when it closes under the low of the 3 day star pattern

208
pattern setting up for poss ES 1334 test lower, but not finished baking yet

138
this is the "down" i mentioned b4 re: selll signal, bounce then lower is normal pattern

130
still on 74% es sell signal,,,it can take awhile when triggered at noontime,, ES at same price now as when it rang

127
one intersting thing, is that qqq down 0.60% even with appl higher, many of the ndx r tired here even with appl higher

1258
ES is up 2 points,,,sell signal still the same on it

1257
poss bear HS also on PKD, so being cautious....BUT these low priced stocks often do not adhere to pattern expectations, so trying the long,for now

1257
PKD i'll trade in and out of,,,,if that is NOT a bear flag daily the i see 7.50 and 9.00

1255
PKD 6.90 first trgt

1254
bought PKD , LONG, swing, at 6.70,,also from focus list last 5 days

1249
REN poss multimonth bear flag daily

1238
ES is at 60min downtrendlin resist now,,trendline could be higher depending on how u draw it

1235
DragonTrader maybe,,,still on the 74% sell, needs 78 then 85% to really move

1232
74% confid sell signal rang on NSC

1225
scalps, this intraday es pattern, usually lower, bounce, then down harder after bounce, if it plays out the pattern

1223
74% sell on es now, tho price has not moved since 72%, signal went up just a bit

1220
7200---7220 resist area on NSC

1219
HPQ 2640 next mini trgt on break of this supp, then 2820,,,under 2800 HPQ may be in real trouble

1215
ES--- 72% confid sell signal just rang, at 1338

1212
hpq weak, but hpq is at support ,testing it, so could bounce,,,but break lower likely since it has not moved up with ES intraday

1209
i might get stopped out of APL not aapl, for a loss today,,,not changing the stop, can always buy it again if stopped out long

1205
looking ok so far nsc,,,the 3min has turned lower, ahead of ES, obviously for swings/position holds the 3min is irrelev, but also trading it intraday

1204
btw, unlike some other stocks that are more volatile than spx spy (higher betas),, NSC trades with about the same volatility as SPY, so more shares needed to get 3x-etf like performance,, however when moving down, NSC could have a temp higher beta

1201
yea its always tricky---i'm trying the short with the belief that if UNP falls, or IYT, then NSC will get hit harder

1157
shorted NSC at 71.97, to both scalp and hold as position,,, filled at .97 and .96

1134
fwiw, NSC and KSU look like they might be good shorts,swing, in transport sector

1122
looking for another component to short,,,the previous CHRW shotr i closed a few days ago was a compon, one reason shorted it,,,looking for poss new entries short in transport area

1103
daily HPQ has a bear harami pattern from yest, a close today under yest low would confirm and be bearish for hpq

1059
IWM russell has an island top, or close to one, with a close under 8175 today

1059
QQQ also has the poss bear EVE star, if it closes under the gap, and the QQQ pattern is more "textbook" since yesterdays gap is easier seen than SPY

1055
And... if SPY should happen to get another gap down, under 133.51, then it would have a 6 day island top pattern

1050
then, that pattern would be confirmed stronger if SPY closes tomorrow or next 1-3 days, BELOW today's low

1049
Yesterday I mentioned a possible bear EVE star was forming on SPY, that a gap down would be needed to finish the pattern. If we get  small or medium candle today, that closes below yest close, then SPY will have the pattern. A larger red candle would be more bearish, but a smaller spinning top is all that's needed to meet the pattern definition. The pattern is not "texbook" because textbook would show a larger gap UP on yesterdays candle, but it still meets the criteria imo. Also, the single candle from yest is a bear dragonfly (one day pattern) vs the additional 3 day morn star pattern.

941
still holding hpq shorts, lower 1.25% today vs yest close

936
The LINE short has gapped down nicely this morning, below the daily lows (prior support) from 1/13 and 2/9....still holding LINE short for same trgts posted yest

841
Took profits pre market on OIL  GOLD since I'll be out this morning.

805
OIL is down nicely this morning. The oil shorts via SCO entered yesterday should give a 3-4% profit.
GOLD also is down nicely. Shorts entered 2 days ago DZZ It too should give about a 3-4% profit.
AAPL position hold short is underwater atm, but holding this multi-week multi-month short.
TMF is underwater also but i still see higher TLT and TMF.  TMF is up about 2% from yesterday, tho, where it may have put in a short term low with its bull hammer candle.

So although form time to time we must take losses, in the long run as long as profits exceed losses, a trader is doing well. The diversification among several positions, instead of just one position, serves as a risk management money tool. Diversification is also a psychological aid, because the trader knows that although some positions are underwater, other positions are showing profits, and this prevents panic or sleepless nights.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

345
3812 fiurst sco trgta

333
i'll take profits on gold shorts entered yest, b4 the close today,

324
EUO may form a bull morning star tomorrow if it gaps up, today is day 2 of the possible pattern formation, for higher EUO lower euro

232
if LINE breaks 3580 and then 3500ish, it could really fall hard (position trade, not today) to 33 or 31

212
gold may try to break 1726 support for 1715

154
trying 3763 SCO, to short oil, may take profits today on it

1220
LINE: expecting daily prior support to break, and move 4-5 % lower for additional profit if it breaks, swing

1219
LINE shorts are now at target one lower, taking pforits on half  and keeping half makes sense

939
es hit over 1352, shorted ES 1352 per yesterday's post of that short level

i'll be back around 1pm

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wede thoughts

421
LINE swing short continues to look bearish

357
DZZ at 4.26 to short gold, or GLD could be used to short it, swing

340
out xiv 933, not moving

307
933 XIV

306
tvix sell warn at 1468

303
1344 es test should hold first try, poss short bnc entry

257
dont like that test on tvix of supp at 1455 at this time of day, too risky imo,,on sidelines for now,,, used bounce to get out

256
im out of tvix 1475 here, for now, from 1470 entry,, will reeval later

253
or if es hits 1344, will prob short bnc off of it,,, if it were 11am--1pm i wouldve shorted the test 134, but this time of day, could go crazy so waiting

251
will short es 1352 if it hits there in 30 min

236
*1440ish, we wish 1540 :)

236
tvix has volume on its upside today, looking at intraday 15min charts, with supp 1540ish volume

227
there goes my short, on ES scalp, stopped out of second half for measely 1 point, and 6 points profit on first half

225
over 1512 tvix gives 1570 trgt

210
117.20 next TLT trgt

208
TLT on the move higher at its critical 2pm--3pm period,,watching reactions

203
a red candle on HPQ 60min chart would end that "wait 4 hours to short hpq" from late yesterday

159
74% confid intraday buy signal on tvix just rang

156
i have sell stop 1570 tvix if it gets there, to take profit on half if trgt hit

150
usually the oil trades in SCO and UCO give about 15% profit trgts, but having to weave in and out faster since Jan 1 on them

136
i believe that oil will break the 95 support, eventually

136
QuickSwing indicator for silver is "short for 2 days",,,but it rang at a higher level,,may short it on a 15min bounce

133
14.70 tvix now looks nice for early entry,,,,,,,half size, to give ebough for combo scalp swing

124
1344 es was rejected, as expected

1233
looks like the headfake break over 1342, also the bear stoch dbl top near confirmation soon

1226
poss bear stochastic dbl toip on 3min es here, needs to move lower to confirm it

1225
also EUO trying to put in a higher low on 15min chart

1224
3min looking a bit tired, so giving a lil room to breathe

1224
hard stop set 1345.25 to prevent loss from 1346 entry

1223
waiting on cover here,,,1342.25 not hard stop

1218
if 1342 breaks, could pop to 1344 and 1344 may get a fast rejection lower

1217
looks like 1340 es could break,,,tricky here at 1340/42

1204
watching the 1342.25 area for poss exit on the shorts from 1346 second half,,,1342 held so far

1157
below 1340 would give another short setup, for next 9 mis only

1155
1340.50 minor 3min es resist broke, but can it get over 1342.24?

1153
could be headfake probes higher,watching

1152
they r probing now, tryiong to trigger stops,,,iof enough get triggered will get over 1342

1150
1342.25 stop for es shorts scalps makes sense now, from 1346, could always reenter

1146
under 1337 es, could give 1325 es, today

1143
right now rsi is bleow it,,,but that would give a bull rsi failure swing if it went above

1142
3min rsi over 36 may suggest taking profits on shorts and look for reentry,,for scalps, if gets ther, on 3min chart

1136
1343 mental stop, hard stop higher

1135
> should se 12337 es now

1135
no volume diverg suggests sellers not tired yet, not done selling

1134
no bullish vol diverg yet on 3min es,,,suggests lower es and short its rallies intraday

1131
added back in at 1340 es shorts, all other orders canclld

1129
if 1342 comes b4 133850, i'll reshort the half i covered at 1340

1127
APL stop 3540, if stopped it will be loss not profit, on the second APL entry,,last 3646

1126
1338.50, adding ES more shorts if hit1338.50, adding ES more shorts, instead of 1337

1122
TLT just hit 11680 trgt from yest,,,, the 15min Bull W has now formed,,,wathcing next for 60 min W,,,could stall here

1120
taking 6 point small profit on half es shorts

1119
watching 1337 es....v impt imo, intraday and also swings

1118
oil short will prob give an exit to take profit and then re-enter bounce,,,then the BIG move lower for swing, imo

1116
notice all the topping tails on the daily CL oil futures candles

1108
1339 ES "should" move confid from 76 to 78%

1106
if es gets under 1337---could really sell off imo

1105
broken trgtr...watchinhg for sustain under 1343 now

1104
another ES rejection below 1346 on the 3min charts

1059
a bounce that didnt make 1346---v v bearish imo intraday,,,under 1346 es v bearish imo

1058
76%confid sell es

1056
i still thinkTLT will form 2 bull W's :  first on the 15min chart, then a bigger one on 60min chart, for swings,,, 116.85 tlt would give the first W on 15min chart

1055
ES getting rejected under that 1346, for now,,,watching those 2 pivots 1343   1346

1052
i "think" an ES bnc to 1346 and turn lower, or fail to get 1346 on bnce, will put es confid at 78% sell, unsure tho

1048
the oil freight train is much stronger than spx freight train,,,,move away from it, or ride it

1047
still holding the newly entered oil shorts swing from yest,,,it could really start moving now

1044
a 1345-46 bounce in next 12 mins would be shortable imo, if it gets one,,could break the 1343 instead

1042
74% confid sell signal, 1343 breakable needs 78%, but getting higher

1040
BELOW the mkt, 1337, i'll add ES shorts, from existing 13436 shorts

1039
over 116.70.,,,TLT  TMF  could soar higher intraday, also ZN  ZB futures

1037
and 50%ish "feeling" that it could break on first try without much bounce,,,feeling only,

1036
watching 1343 ES, bears must break it, bulls must hold, bias down after stall on 1343

1029
72% confid sell signal on ES, up from 70%

1027
70% confid es sell signal, intraday

1009
SLV approaching a resist test here,,,may be shortable again, but waiting for entry

957
hpq scalp trgt a little less than 1% move

954
hpq 2917 scalps or day could work here,,hpq could still make a minor higher hi over 2925 to 2935--48ish, but entry here could work too

948
1346 short scalp es

946
hpq remains inside yesterdays 2pm "wait 4 more hours" to short setup, may get a swing short setup on it today as it develops, tho i'm already short hpq from earlier ao qont add more

940
apl hit trgt while typig,,,3740 next trg

939
3727 APL trgt, then stall ,,,will watch reation at .27 if gets there

938
APL up higher at the open as expected,,,letting it run for awhile,,,might still take profit this morn,unsure

930
long TLT or TMF scalps / day could work well today, at the open, or ZB ZN futures

929
if HPQ tests 2879 lower,,it will prob break and continue lower after poss stall,,but at the open can blow right thru that support if tested

923
i will be watching APL closely at the open, and may take profits on it, then try to re-enter. i think APL will gap up this morn.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

350
i see lower spx,,,but i think APL long will be ok, so holding it,,,i dont think VOG can hold up, so exited that one b4 optimal target hit,earlier today

336
oil might try 101 first b4 lower tho

335
imo,,short oil swings better than short spx

334
*9874

333
shorted oil here at 99.74 for swing,,,might even take off half b4 the close if it moves down, else swing trade

258
1:33pm signal still valid,,,that ES "might have" finished its up move, and begin sideways then decline,

246
REN re-shortable here imo 1166--1179 range

240
tomorrow may present SLV short, zsl,

233
inmpot support test now imo on hpq,,,breaking this and down to .40 trgt micro

227
that TLT 60min chart that looks "so bad".... watch for a BULL W to form on it

140
ES should pullback between now and the close 415 ,,,last 1343

137
APL moving up nicely since the trigger hit

133
ES "might have" finished its up move, and begin sideways then decline, in next 2 hours,,,tho the signals are premature, warnings are there,,, but this is the first "might have" signal i've had for some time now

121
 i'm OUT of VOG for now
4% profit,,,did not achieve the 7% and 15% targets on VOG,,,may reenter later

118
APL hit its .64 buy trigger higher,,,watching for reaction and followthru now

109
TLT falling but a bull  diverg forming on its 60min chart

106
APL buy stop 3664 above the mkt could work long,into close or swing

104
HPQ 2935, ABOVE its last high, short could work if it gets up there, before 230pm

1257
VOG popped up 1% since the "intraday buy signal",,,still see .97 trgt

1253
starting to get those smaller 15min bear candles on HPQ,,,not done yet

1244
BAL cotton may be giving a "buy back again after taking profits" for swing long cotton, maybe in next 10--120 minutes

1242
hmm,,, my charts say UCO low was 4023,,,but my stop at 4021 was hit,,,so bad data---or "something" else happened,,and filled at 4024,,oh well

1233
VOG trgts:  290,,,297,,,307,,,324

1232
over 285 implies 297 imo on VOG, good for next hour intraday

1231
vog just triggered a 77% confid to break 2.90 higher,,,,,,,not suggesting to buy it here, but could pop to its next trgt

1229
either it holds here to move higher, or im out of oil for awhile

1229
raised stop on UCO oil long now to 4021---tricky here so tightened stop

1214
3987 stop on remaining half of UCO oil long 2x,,,,last 40.50,,riding it up but need a stop in place now that the 99 futures trgt was hit,,,oil moves fast hence the stop

1207
an agressive, early oil swing short might present today

1206
oil outlook short term: a pullback to a higher low, then long on the higher low,,,,then a swing SHORT on the bounce while exiting the long.  SHORT may present in 1-2 days, depending on action of 60min charts

1143
watching 9770 oil if it drops near there, last 9832

1142
after it calms down, another reentry long oil may present

1142
OIL just hit its 99 trgt from yest post,,, for 2% profit oil or 4% sco quickTrade,, i posted to have a lim order at 99 because if it got there fast it might pb

1136
if HPQ 15min chart starts to put in smaller candles, sideways, may present a short opp

1132
283--286 vog could work if it gets there in next hour,,for new entries, i'm holding from 280 still half after taking half off for 3% yest

1131
APL over 3850 would give 4070 trgt,,,but longert term i think it can go higher,,,think it can do a move like ROC did

1128
TLT...15min bull harami

1057
VOG new entries might be better to let the 15min charts base for awhile, then enter lower or above mkt

1054
my APL hard stop is at 35.40,,mental stop is higher than that and may exit early b4 stopped out, but hard stop in place in case of sudden downturn, computer problems, or if i forget about the position for a day''

1052
there's a Downtrendline on HPQ 15min near this area

1039
2885 hpq may be tough to crack higher

1034
TBT puts, FEB 19 at .33 and Mar 19 at .74, could work nicely (if TLT moves up, tbt goes down 2x)

1019
tlt  tmf buy signal intraday at 74% here, 116.48 tlt

1016
sell signal on es, 70% confid here at 1335.50,intraday

1008
133.44 spy test is trgt,,,and see if that holds or breaks,,stall likely if it gets there

1006
SPY chart is diff than ES...notice SPY has begun to fill gap and broken all its supporta above it,,,,133.76 spy supp

1005
1336/34.50 es trgt 1 is 1330 to cover half there, hold half

1003
aapl shorts are underwater 455.55 vs 465.57 last,,,but holding them mid term for 41--425 first trgts lower

1000
stopped out of ROC long from Jan, about 27% profit,,,may re-enter later, not today

957
very very agress could short 133450 here

954
1335.25 mini resist es

953
1330 next mini trgt lower after 1333

952
looks breakable 1333,,makes sense to wait imo b4 scalp profit take...LOL charts changing while i'm typing

951
watching 1333/34 es 2-3 pt scalp trgt reaction, if it breaks lower, can get a nice move lower, active traders would watch closely to exit small profit on half, re-enter,,

945
still see /ZB  /ZN futures long or TLT  TMF long as better than es shorts tho

941
ES shorts here could work, 1336

940
hpq weak this morn,,,still have 2820--2840 hpq trgt lower,,will see reactions there,,,with the 26 then 24swing trgt still in play

938
stop 54.20 on ROC from Jan entry long swing,,,at 27% profit now and don't want to get caught in downside correction, move up been parabolic

933
still have same targets on VOG: 300 and 3.25

932
APL, not aApl, here is a good buy long imo,,i'm not adding since already in from higher levels

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts afterhours

up 27%, ROC long from Jan 11 at 43.18 is now up 27% to 54.85. Continuing to trail the stop higher to protect profits makes sense. A pullback should be expected soon, so likely will take profits soon. The move has been parabolic.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

410
look at TLT 14,3,3 stoch, it may turn higher from here and not go to 20. If TLT does happen to move lower, then the stoch is going to form a bull diverg,,,but other charts and signals suggest higher TLT instead next 1-3 days

410
TLT or TMF 2xr 1-3 days imo,swing

405
VOG target is still 3.00 (for 7% profit), but i have raised my order set hiogher to sell at 3.22 (15% profit) in case it surges fast, if no such surge will consider selling at 300 trgt in coming day(s).

353
next trgt 7% on VOG,,,may buy back half if able tomorrow on pb

352
took 3% profit on half of VOG longs from this morn,,will hold half

349
VOG hit 2.89 trgt,,,still could get over 290 b4 close but trgt 1 hit

348
hpq in trouble methinks


343
9717 watch for short oil scalp,,breaks could be viscious

341
and that one, if it comesk, may not get bid up like today

341
starting to look like another gap down tomorrow in spx,,,

322
VOG moves seen small, but percentwise its up 2% vs flat ES today

321
9730 oil should give .45   .55 micro

319
76% confid buy signal intraday on vog, for a pop to test .90

312
74% confid sell sig on HPQ

312
hpq at .67 would suggest lower to next trgt imo, if it hits .67,,,last .78

302
this time of day,,,VOG can run thru the 8.90 stall area without a pause, removed the stall area

257
if oil gets to 9775, i think it will go over it,,,after a pullback stall first

248
72% confid ES sell signal, intraday at 1338

247
2777 trgt on hpq if breaks supp

246
hpq tricky here cuz at support,,,if es moves lower, hpq could break it tho

236
HPQ---testing yesterdays lows now

228
2470 VXX buy stop ABVOE the mkt could work,,,not there yet

227
VOG going for 289 trgt,,,then stall again ,,trgt still 3.00 or 7% profit

 
215
VOG "stall" should be done,,,should see 2.89 next

213
oil popped nice, over 9730 should pop again

210
if it can get to 117.71 TLT should give it new highs intraday

209
long oil, now, at 9700 could work

204
VOG will prob stall here now at 285,,may get interesting next

201
going long TLT or TMF may be easier than shorting the ES SPX QQQ

159
VOG hit its 2.83 "break higher trgt",,,watching for followthru or not

158
HPQ down 1% vs flat ES,,good for shorts

155
next bounce on ES, on the 3min, forming now but not ready yet. ,maybe shortable, watching setup, intraday scalp short poss

143
TLT on the move since the .30 trgt broken higher,,,.71 last

12219
TLT next trgt 118/.50,.,, 117.30 last

1219
i'm trading the breakout over 2.74 on daily---look at vog from November-present,,and then the 60min chart .... naturally breakouts always have more risk

1213
TLT hit 117.30 trgt from 15min ago,,,should be good for swings now

1207
watching LINE shorts, to see if it can break that 3640 for lower,and better profit exit

1202
VOG could go to 266 or lower, first

1200
IF TLT hits 117.30, would be long TLT signal, or add more TLT TMF,,,swing

1152
bought VOG long, 2.77--2.80, for expected break over 2.85 toward 3.00 next

1118
29.04,,,finally added to my HPQ short position

941
intraday under 457.50 may bring aapl selling intraday, and spill to qqq

917
the first 30 minutes may tell us the direction of SPX SPY for the rest of day

917
spy may get another spin top today, not filling the gap. if it does, then it would be day 3 of 3 day candle pattern mentinoed on friday, bear eve star, with day 4,5,6 neededed for confirmation of the star

8:37 AM

I'll be in and out today, so posting some thoughts here Pre-Market:

In general, stops tightened on all QuickSwings that are in profit zone, for half of the position, and a looser stop set for the second half to convert to MidTermSwing hold instead. Depending on how charts develop during the day, I may take profits on 100% instead of 50% of EUO  TLT  TMF  SLV  SPXU

On Friday, I posted to look for a gap down today on SPX and ES.  THe ES traded to 1330.25 overnight low, about 9 points lower, and is currently down 5 points. Unless ES manages a rally in the next hour, it will gap down as expected.

On Friday, I also posted to look for higher US Dollar and lower Euro. Euro futures are now down nicely  almost 1% (2% effect on EUO etf), and the Euro futures have BROKEN Friday's low.

Newly entered SILVER shorts entered Friday: Silver is down nicely 1.4%, or 2.8% effect on ZSL.

TLT longs trading 0.5% higher, TMF longs up 1%.

Newly entered long in OIL, starter size position, is trading lower today, but UCO etf is approx 1% profit above its entry price. Watching oil carefully. I mentinoed that oil may make a lower low before bouncing much, hence the starter position. I may exit this and look to reenter later. needs to hold prior daily lows.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

331
i changed my mind,,,i'm going to keep a piece of SLV shorts overnight,,,the 60min looks tired toppy

325
closing analysis suggests a 5 point pb,,,into 415pm,,,but i'm not sure i believe it LOL

323
3265-3250 SLV gives a 3235 trgt, below the .40 trg,,,,,3miun chart,,so the targets line up,, kind of amazing how these things match

322
silver is being stubborn here but it still looks breakable lower today

318
fwiw, those SLV trgts are simple horizontal support and resistance, nothing complicated

316
TLT is taking off after 3pm,,that is a bit unusual,,,usually 3-4pm on tlt is consolod rectangles

307
i might regret it, but i will NOT hold the silver shorts overnight, unless chart changes a lot next hour

303
will cover half of the remaing half of SLV at .40 if able, and let other half of half (one quarter) ride lower
 i think .40 bounces if it gets there

258
stop on last half of silver short #2---just above breakeven for a small loss, let them work for it to push it higher, giving room, downside risk greater so willing to give up profit on the last half,,,already took profit 3 times of 4 on slv today

255
if VIX closes like this, hollow red candle,,, bull hammer

244
SLV--tightening stops on remaining half, manually trailing lower using 3min chart

242
silver hit .60 :)
.40 next SLV trgt

2430
.61 on half of slv i will take profit,,keeping half

211
slv sell signal,,,,may break .70 within 6min, watching

155
My TLT is a mess now,,but been here b4 ,,, but i'm not averging down, not adding more

145
idk if ES will do it or not, but this time of day, it can blow thru downside trgts, last 2 hrs,, just watching reactions

143
IF the slv stoch on 15min chart fails here near 60 instead of 80, bearish for slv, but still baking'

136
quickSwing long oil that triggered yest says "hold longs in uco" another 1-3 days

122
es 1340 short here could work, scalp,

119
if slv can get back down to .60 again, bounce may not get over .80, and .60 may break for .40

118
silver now moving, in that "next 9--12 min" timefram

110
next 9--12 min in slv intraday could be interesting

100
usually it converts to a bear rising wedge

100
see that pattern on 60 min ES? a "reverse bull flag"??? It's a bearish pattern

1258
nervous ones would exit slv second entry here breakeven, i remain short LOL nonetheless,, still have the 1-2% profit from prior entry

1253
i'm starting to like holding SLV short overnight, the timing analysis suggests sideways down on SLV for 4-8 trading hours, but its still baking

1233
lack of bull vol diverg intraday usually means sellers are not done yet

1232
slV does not have intraday bull volume diverg yet, so likely to retest lower sometime today

1231
im donw 10 cents on second slv short but net profit from first one,,still holding this a bit here,

1218
slv jhit the .74 below mkt trade trigger,,watching reactions for sustain lower or not,,tho i reentered at .80

1215
.83--.86 mental stops on slv

1211
if SLV can retest .65,,,then should get the .41 trgt next

1210
lim order filled, back in SLV short .80

1210
or short stop .74 below mkt

1209
.80 limit reshort slv,,may be fast in out

1206
out of rest of slv,,,going to .80-.85 i think

1206
slv at .67 mental stop,,watching reactions, may exit

1203
profits on SLV are small because i'm not willing to hold overnite, yet,,,so needs active trading''

1202
.71 mental stop slv,,,,    .77 hard stop in case of surge, to protect scalp profit,can always reshort

1200
72% confid on es sell now, up from 70%''
needs 78--85% to move

1158
1% profit on slv scalp, or 2% on zsl, approx, in an hour

1157
covering half .62

1154
.68 should give .60

1154
limit to cover half of SLV 3241 and reshort expected bounce if it gets there,,,may need to take off half at .60-.65ish depending on reaction there''

1150
caution  shorting slv swings tho, its in a daily uptrend

1149
IF SLV hits 3190--3210 it will prob bounce, and if it does get that low today, the bounce may be shortable as swing

1146
slv 3285 is 3min resist

1144
a satall at .65 slv, would make sense to take off half

1143
ES sell signal 70% confid, intraday

1142
SLV hit .75,,,watching .65 next

1140
if gets 3279, SLV should give 3265 lower,,last 3284

1136
1339 es now shortable again, but not taking it, other better optinos imo,

1129
3210 SLV would give  2.5% profit, or 5% on zsl ,approx

1126
idea:SLV short 3292

1123
imo, this is not a reshort setup scalp on ES here back at 1339

1111
i got out of this ES short for small 2 points, and replaced with AAPL short, sitll TLT TMF longs scalps

1101
Stop orders are one way to manage risk. Other ways are smaller position sizes with layering in and out.  Another often overlooked risk management tool is diversification through having multiple positions in individual stocks in various sectors, instead of everything in one stock or etf. Shorting weak SPX stocks and gonig long strong SPX stocks will generally outperform SPY. If you're short a weak stock and SPX moves higher, the weak stock usually will not move up as much, and can even continue lower. The inverse is true for strong stocks when SPX goes down.

1059
TLT value "should be" about 1% higher than it is right now, imo,,,somethings not quite right with that gap down

1054
idea: TLT TMF long could work here, 116.30 TLT, for scalp and or swing, I already have some TLT for swing at higher price, but will scalp it also here

1041
1339 ES short here, scalp and or swing

1038
cotton BAL now at 3.5%, still moving higher,,,i'm just trailing the stop manually, but won't clutter the room with every adjustment

1029
imo GLD daily will pull back, then bounce, the pb may be buyable, the bounce may be shortable, in no mans land here,,,if long makes sense to take profits imo,, i have been considering SHORT on GLD last few days, but recent analysis suggests that this first pb doesnt have enough risk:reward to it, so on sidelines now in GLD

1027
tightening stops on BAL to protect 1 day profits, can always buy back if stopped out,,, BAL is like oil in that its very volatile and can moves very fast, up or down

1025
if spy puts in a spin top candle, not runaway imo,,,rahter could be day 2 of 3 day bear morn star setup

1019
GCOM idea from last nights post- makes sense taking 3% profits here, from buy at open today, on half of shares, tight stop on other half

959
APL has pulled back after yesterdays surge, is buyable here imo

946
EUO position is also higher this morning,,still holding it longer

944
HPQ is also up 1.4% today, not good for shorts, but i still see lower HPQ, i'm holding them. also HPQ has not made new highs the way SPY SPX have

942
AAPL is still shortable here imo
note that aapl is FLAT vs ES up 1% !

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

AAPL - Chart of Apple, finally I'm bearish on it at 455.55 today

Quick chart of AAPL below.
Notes and comments are in the chart itself.
Double click chart for larger view.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Trading Ideas for Friday

STRATEGY:   The SPX was flat today, and is right at its resistance. For LONG ideas, I wanted to find stocks that went UP today, not flat, on volume. I already have several short positions, including HPQ    LINE     REN  etc.

I will ONLY BUY 1-2 of these, to save some funds to  buy some $10 stocks in addition,  since they move faster. 

I have another focus list that has both small and large caps in it, but i'm in the process of cleaning up the list. I might post it later.

THESE ARE IDEAS ONLY.   I may or may not take a position in any of these.  "Buy at open" means its a POSSIBLE buy that i may take at the open.

V buy at the open on Friday, if over Thurs low. No need to buy both MA and V.

MA buy over 385. Trgt 420. Similar to V. No need to buy both MA and V.

BAL is still buyable near Thursdays closing price.

ISRG buy at open if over 478.

SBH buy over Thursday's high. Trgt  24ish from 22ish or 8-10%

RA buy after consolodation. Watch for a bull flag before entry. E.g.: A move lower, and then a move back over 16.70.

GCOM buy over Thursdays high, from Feb 1 list.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

409
IDEA: consider HPQ short instead of or in addition to SPY shorts: notice HPQ is not much higher now than nov 16,, vs SPY much higher, HPQ is weaker imo and "safer" in HPQ if SPY goes up

400
APL did not hit daily trgt to sell,,,,i'm RAISING the trgt limit sell order higher to 4070 for now

400
TLT closed 119.12,,, 2 cents from the est 119.14 estimate

355
above mkt, buy stop 1463, i'll add more smn,,,prob wont hit it today

350
EUO--if it closes tomorrow over 1975, should get over 20 in following days for a run to 2080

349
119.14 TLT close, or higher, would be good for TLT
likely close near there


346
VXX has a poss morn star bullish forming, 3 day pattern with today day 2, a gap up even if small tomorrow on vxx, would give the day 3 candle,,not trading it,,,just fwiw

343
changed time to buy SMN from 3:57, until now, still same price 1445 last

340
i dont think HPQ will make it over 2865 b4 close, .58 last

337
unusual to be long commodoties oil and cotton, and also "near long" us dollar since short euro, but commod relation to dollar,, ESP in OIL, is not always 1:1

333
HPQ has 2 day bear harami candle pattern, and also a 9 day and 2 day poss bear double tops

320
SMN here could work, or at 3:57 PM, or both, for swings

318
412---420 initial AAPL lower trgt,,,see even lower later

313
buy signal into the close for oil uco

306
also on TLT, notice that the 60min 41,3,3 stoch went under 20, but the rsi 14 on 60min stayed near 50,,,often bullish,,,aka "buy the dip" setup,, but recently TLT has had some vicious moves, both up and down,

303
TLT could go lower, but i think it has spent enough time on the 60min chart without going lower, the sideways is bullish for TLT   TMF,,imo

257
APL hit the .94 "move higher" trgt but has stalled,,,still see higher APL in coming hours days

256
UCO scalpers may get 1-1.5% profits before close today

250
SELL signal on the euro, at 74% confid now,intraday,,for higher EUO into the close

239
3907 first small trgt on UCO, about 1%ish profit,,,swing trgts higher of course

238
UCO in, 3860,,, starter position only, oil long

234
uso or uco are oil long etfs

233
or one could go long here on oil at 9640ish with a stop at 94.70, but must be willing to get stopped out and possibly re-enter long again, and the re-entry might be at a higher pricde

231
CL short term oil---imo looks like one more move down, then maybe go long on it,, next move down may not be a lower low, on 60 min chart

2263
in restaurants, i still like PNRA long, but no entry yet,,daily PNRA looks good, the 60min has a bull coil forming but wanting to enter PNRA either lower, or higher, from here,

158
APL hit its .94 pivot: watching if it can accel back toward its highs now

149
APL 2 cents from another possible intraday breakoug higher,,,needs .94

143
AVL  APL  AAPL  AAP ...oh my what an opp for typos on order entries LOL,,such similar symbols

142
above the mkt at 3794 APL could work into the close,

140
15min TLT chart appears to be bull consolod intraday on TLT

138
APL earnings on Feb 20,,,looking for a run up on the stock before that

137
watch TLT during the 2pm--3pm hour,,,often it will lead the spx and give clues

129
basic materials bull IYM is down lower since price a year ago,,,vs spy near the same price as year ago, hence SMN idea

122
IDEA: also i've been watching SMN which is bear basic material, and thats ready for an aggressive 1/4 size here at 1446ish, and perhaps another 1/4 entry at the close today

117
i plan to reshort chrw, but waiting a bit,,,days maybe, think it will break under 61

100
ES hit 1319 agress scalp trgt from 11am from 1324.50, and almost made 1317 trgt (hit 1317.50)..5-6 points profit on second half of that idea


1145
1322.25 possible stop, for scalps, 1320.50 last,, es could bounce despite this neg move down

1144
agressive scalp 1324.50 from 1107AM could take 3 point profit here on half, and tighten stop on other half,,,swings would have looser stops

1142
HPQ has done it. PArabolic SAR is broken lower

1133
3848 last, so that trgt is a bit far away, stretch

1133
If APL hits 39.20 today it would be almost a 6% move from yest close, and i'll take profits on half or all of it there, from entry yest, and look to buy it back again lower


1130
overnight the ES hit my 1317 target from day b4,,,was overnight low, but didnt make it by the 4:15pm timeframe, rathher hit it later in session

1129
HPQ testing the parabolic SAR support on 60min chart, looks breakable lower

1127
if the 14,3,3 stoch on 3min es gets back over 80, AND es is under 1326,,it may make another nice short entry,,,will takje time to bake b4 getting there

1126
TLT and TMF,,,still buyable long imo,,,as alt to shorting ES SPX

1123
HPQ running ahead of ES now, moving lower faster on HPQ

1120
wow APL overshot its 3820 trgt,,,blew past to 3836,, it has poss momentum to shoot up another 1-3% now

118
sell signal confid "probably" wont move over 74% for at least another hour, even if ES loses 10 points b4 then,, the 78% confid usually comes on the failed rally after move down (similar to shorting the wave 2 up in elliot, in anticipation of larger wave 3 down, tho it doesnt use elliot)

1114
3820 trgt near on APL now, watching reactions long

1112
if TLT moves over 119.60, watch out below for ES SPY, imo, last 119, but theres lots of intraday resist on 60min tlt that it would need to break,,,,i believe TLT will break higher in coming hours days

1111
74% confidence on the sell signal ES

1109
agressive shorts could work here, 1324.50 ES

1108
71% confid now,,it can change fast that signal, fwiw, while es still at same price 1324.50

1105
67% confid sell signal on ES now ,,,last 1325,,,too early to enter,,needs 74% for early entry and 85% to move,,,watching the signal (intraday signal not swing),,but often at this area it means "tighten stops if long, or take long profits"

1100
a close of AAPL under 450 may warrant adding more shorts

1059
AAPL has a poss bear mornig star candle pattern setting up today, a 3 day pattern with today as day 3

1056
SMN is another alternative,long, but not ready yet (bear basic mat etf)a

1056
HPQ is alt short to DOW and nasdaq and spx, hpq flat today vs SPY up .34%

1054
apl approaching first trgt 3820, last 3796,,a stall or pb may happen there,,,if it blows thru it, would be v bullish for it, but expecting stall (resist is resist till broken)

1051
a LONG oil opp may present next, or poss short the rally,,,i'm on sidelines now

1050
stopped out of oil 9650, never made the 9500 trgt, out of shorts from 103 and 101

1048
today's volume in BAL is already higher than yesterdays TOTAL volume :) , nonetheless commodoties trades are not for the faint of heart, can be very volatile

1043
cotton BAL is putting in a bullish harami reversal higher pattern on daily chart and it broke over 60min resist this morn

1034
marginal break on APL over yest highs, watching to see if sustains and accel to 38.20 to consolod up there awhile

1033
expecting LINE to do what ANN did today

1030
4% initial profit target in line from here, then 10%, 20% over time

1030
idea: LINE is also shortable here, i'm not adding since i'm already in

1028
AAPL is on bothg a midterm short swing setup, and a QuickSwing short, imo

1018
finally shorted AAPL 455.55 after months long in it (out of longs since 444)

1016
BAL long here at 5840 (cotton etf),swing

1011
imo, the larger move down on SPX may not come until tomorrow (after reports) or next week

1008
it doesnt affect buy decision, but small bones, APL will pay a 55 cent dividend on Feb 3

954
i may add more APL higher, at 3851 buy stop above the mkt, later

951
on daily SPY, has anyone noticed that bearish OBV divergence. on balance volume.

945
 APL long is still buyable, now, for poss profits today or in next 2 days

943
looking for APL to wake up for its swing long, it is now back near breakeven after a 2% drop from entry

941
oil shorts via sco: waiting for oil trgt 9531 to take profits from 103 and 101 short entries, for 14--16% profit on sco,,,stops tightened in case it wants to rally

940
the move up in TLT could be powerful, swing, to 121, 122, 124, 128 trgts

938
TLT and TMF are at 60 min support test now, could go either way here,,,if lower i may buy more TLT TMF (already have some from yesterdays close)

920

News: Ann Inc Sees 4Q Below Views; Head Of Ann Taylor Segment To Depart.   I had no idea that this news on ANN INC was "coming",,but this is a good example of how the charts "price things in" even without knowing news.  "something" has been wrong with Ann's chart for the past 3 weeks, and "someone" knew about it, which prompted my short entry, tho I had to wait a bit for it to kick in.

919
ANN is trading premarket about 10% lower than yesterdays close. i took profits on some ANN shorts here, premarket.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday thoughts

417
we could actually gap HIGHER tomorrow as i look at charts, or move higher before lower, but that doesnt negate the swing short half-size entry,,,,imo

411
so close to my 1317 trgt by 4:15pm

408
SPY actually shows higher volume on its 60min move down than its move up, same comparison

400
all on todays chart 60 min ES chart interesting: same vol on move up from 1317--1323 as on move down from 1326--1319,,,churn

355
hmm 1317 would be nice by 415pm....under 1317 i might add more SPY shorts afterhours,,,else will run with half size spx shorts, in addition to existing individ shorts in various stocks

351
the swing signal usually goes: enter trade, hold trade, exit trade,,, this time it went : enter trade, dont exit, enter again, ,,,,,that is rare

345
 my QuickSwing signal yest said "stay short",,,LOL it went to "add shorts spx" today, despite this move up,,,,,,,,,,,,
went back on short at 1325,,,unrelated to prev mentioned "78% confid scalp " signal...they are 2 diff things, not related

339
new APL position is down ,,,but holding it as still think it will pop higher, sqwing, entered too early

338
1317 trgt if 1321 breaks

336
took small 3.5 points profit on half of the es shorted earlier today

334
thers the small 1321 trgt hit, watching reaction here

323
same plan if it hits 1321

322
watching same #s : 1321, 1317 es

322
still on 78% sell on ES ,,,LOL,,not moving much still

249
CHRW is not offering re-entry, has not move much since todays  7% drop, i would consider adding in this area if it does not bounce, but wont add today,,,if it starts to settle here then may add the shorts back

248
at 1321 ES i might take off half, for small 3.5 point profit,,,will watch reaction there to see if blows thru it or not,,, 1317 may be achievable so will watch

246
still at 78% confid on ES sell signal intraday

235
but 1321 has support, watching that area next ES

231
119.25 TLT buy signal, back in TLT TMF

211
added #3 short, 1324 ES,,there is no price improvement, earlier entries were better price, just adding more shares so i can scale out later,,,the move down may not be huge

209
at 78% confid now

204
watching 1323.50/1323.25 ES

152
1323.50 es will put it up to 78% confid sell, satisfying the donchian piece of the algo

143
needs 85% confid to really move

143
74% confid, sell signal on ES triggered, at 1325 last

110
60min HPQ setting up a big bear diverg on macd and rsi both, i remain short hpq,,the daily chart for HPQ the past year is much weaker than SPY DIA or QQQ

1243
added more shorts, 1324.50,,,#2 of poss 4 entries,

1225
 it may go for 1330, why i only added initial entry #1,,,
3min charts are throwing off some warnings on ES tho, why i chose to try some early at 1325

1229
shorted at ES 1325,,,entry #1, early entry, may add higher or lower more

1225
will ES test 1329--1330? watching

1224
intraday short scalp is setting up, too soon for entry imo but opp may present soon

1144
TLT or TMF may be ready long in 2-3 hours more,,,still waiting on those

1143
SMN bear basic materials may present poss entry short, alt to TZA or QID or SDS shorts,,,i'm not entering yet but its on the focus list

1130
if APL goes to 40 trgt, will give 6% return, timing analysis is always iffy, but i think APL can move in the next 1-3 days, similar characteristics on my indicators to ONTY tho chart looks diff

1121
bought APL 37.70 to 37.72, swing long

1101
chtr QuickSwing from yest up 2%, planing to take profits in the 3% area near 59.00 if able

1055
Just got back, took profits on CHRW short from a few days ago since it hit the 7-8% profit area.  will look to re-enter again later. Also looking to buy back TLT  TMF that i took 10-12% profit on yest. HPQ shorts are still underwater, being patient with them, still holding for now.

906 AM
Despite fact that ES s up 9.5 now, CHRW short suggested a few days ago is set to gap sharply lower today, perhaps a 6-8% drop from yesterday's close. I see lower in the coming days weeks, but I'll take profits this morning if it gets to the 7-8% profit area from recent entry.  I'm posting early now since I will be out this morning.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".