Friday thoughts

331
i changed my mind,,,i'm going to keep a piece of SLV shorts overnight,,,the 60min looks tired toppy

325
closing analysis suggests a 5 point pb,,,into 415pm,,,but i'm not sure i believe it LOL

323
3265-3250 SLV gives a 3235 trgt, below the .40 trg,,,,,3miun chart,,so the targets line up,, kind of amazing how these things match

322
silver is being stubborn here but it still looks breakable lower today

318
fwiw, those SLV trgts are simple horizontal support and resistance, nothing complicated

316
TLT is taking off after 3pm,,that is a bit unusual,,,usually 3-4pm on tlt is consolod rectangles

307
i might regret it, but i will NOT hold the silver shorts overnight, unless chart changes a lot next hour

303
will cover half of the remaing half of SLV at .40 if able, and let other half of half (one quarter) ride lower
 i think .40 bounces if it gets there

258
stop on last half of silver short #2---just above breakeven for a small loss, let them work for it to push it higher, giving room, downside risk greater so willing to give up profit on the last half,,,already took profit 3 times of 4 on slv today

255
if VIX closes like this, hollow red candle,,, bull hammer

244
SLV--tightening stops on remaining half, manually trailing lower using 3min chart

242
silver hit .60 :)
.40 next SLV trgt

2430
.61 on half of slv i will take profit,,keeping half

211
slv sell signal,,,,may break .70 within 6min, watching

155
My TLT is a mess now,,but been here b4 ,,, but i'm not averging down, not adding more

145
idk if ES will do it or not, but this time of day, it can blow thru downside trgts, last 2 hrs,, just watching reactions

143
IF the slv stoch on 15min chart fails here near 60 instead of 80, bearish for slv, but still baking'

136
quickSwing long oil that triggered yest says "hold longs in uco" another 1-3 days

122
es 1340 short here could work, scalp,

119
if slv can get back down to .60 again, bounce may not get over .80, and .60 may break for .40

118
silver now moving, in that "next 9--12 min" timefram

110
next 9--12 min in slv intraday could be interesting

100
usually it converts to a bear rising wedge

100
see that pattern on 60 min ES? a "reverse bull flag"??? It's a bearish pattern

1258
nervous ones would exit slv second entry here breakeven, i remain short LOL nonetheless,, still have the 1-2% profit from prior entry

1253
i'm starting to like holding SLV short overnight, the timing analysis suggests sideways down on SLV for 4-8 trading hours, but its still baking

1233
lack of bull vol diverg intraday usually means sellers are not done yet

1232
slV does not have intraday bull volume diverg yet, so likely to retest lower sometime today

1231
im donw 10 cents on second slv short but net profit from first one,,still holding this a bit here,

1218
slv jhit the .74 below mkt trade trigger,,watching reactions for sustain lower or not,,tho i reentered at .80

1215
.83--.86 mental stops on slv

1211
if SLV can retest .65,,,then should get the .41 trgt next

1210
lim order filled, back in SLV short .80

1210
or short stop .74 below mkt

1209
.80 limit reshort slv,,may be fast in out

1206
out of rest of slv,,,going to .80-.85 i think

1206
slv at .67 mental stop,,watching reactions, may exit

1203
profits on SLV are small because i'm not willing to hold overnite, yet,,,so needs active trading''

1202
.71 mental stop slv,,,,    .77 hard stop in case of surge, to protect scalp profit,can always reshort

1200
72% confid on es sell now, up from 70%''
needs 78--85% to move

1158
1% profit on slv scalp, or 2% on zsl, approx, in an hour

1157
covering half .62

1154
.68 should give .60

1154
limit to cover half of SLV 3241 and reshort expected bounce if it gets there,,,may need to take off half at .60-.65ish depending on reaction there''

1150
caution  shorting slv swings tho, its in a daily uptrend

1149
IF SLV hits 3190--3210 it will prob bounce, and if it does get that low today, the bounce may be shortable as swing

1146
slv 3285 is 3min resist

1144
a satall at .65 slv, would make sense to take off half

1143
ES sell signal 70% confid, intraday

1142
SLV hit .75,,,watching .65 next

1140
if gets 3279, SLV should give 3265 lower,,last 3284

1136
1339 es now shortable again, but not taking it, other better optinos imo,

1129
3210 SLV would give  2.5% profit, or 5% on zsl ,approx

1126
idea:SLV short 3292

1123
imo, this is not a reshort setup scalp on ES here back at 1339

1111
i got out of this ES short for small 2 points, and replaced with AAPL short, sitll TLT TMF longs scalps

1101
Stop orders are one way to manage risk. Other ways are smaller position sizes with layering in and out.  Another often overlooked risk management tool is diversification through having multiple positions in individual stocks in various sectors, instead of everything in one stock or etf. Shorting weak SPX stocks and gonig long strong SPX stocks will generally outperform SPY. If you're short a weak stock and SPX moves higher, the weak stock usually will not move up as much, and can even continue lower. The inverse is true for strong stocks when SPX goes down.

1059
TLT value "should be" about 1% higher than it is right now, imo,,,somethings not quite right with that gap down

1054
idea: TLT TMF long could work here, 116.30 TLT, for scalp and or swing, I already have some TLT for swing at higher price, but will scalp it also here

1041
1339 ES short here, scalp and or swing

1038
cotton BAL now at 3.5%, still moving higher,,,i'm just trailing the stop manually, but won't clutter the room with every adjustment

1029
imo GLD daily will pull back, then bounce, the pb may be buyable, the bounce may be shortable, in no mans land here,,,if long makes sense to take profits imo,, i have been considering SHORT on GLD last few days, but recent analysis suggests that this first pb doesnt have enough risk:reward to it, so on sidelines now in GLD

1027
tightening stops on BAL to protect 1 day profits, can always buy back if stopped out,,, BAL is like oil in that its very volatile and can moves very fast, up or down

1025
if spy puts in a spin top candle, not runaway imo,,,rahter could be day 2 of 3 day bear morn star setup

1019
GCOM idea from last nights post- makes sense taking 3% profits here, from buy at open today, on half of shares, tight stop on other half

959
APL has pulled back after yesterdays surge, is buyable here imo

946
EUO position is also higher this morning,,still holding it longer

944
HPQ is also up 1.4% today, not good for shorts, but i still see lower HPQ, i'm holding them. also HPQ has not made new highs the way SPY SPX have

942
AAPL is still shortable here imo
note that aapl is FLAT vs ES up 1% !

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".