Below are some quick notes and thoughts. I may refine this later. Rough draft below.
i will do more analysis. i anticipate any rally in spx to stall at 1040/45 on monday.
also, we could see
1025/20/16 on monday instead. I
have 4 scenarios...some bullish some
bearish
i'm trading both
swing (2-15 days) and position
(weeks/months). charts for position
trades suggest a downtrend for the next 3-16 weeks.
for my position trades
(short via SH) i anticipate up and down
moves, even as high as 1070/80. for
the swings, i'll be playing the "short
the rally" strategy, weaving
in and out.
it's all about
support, resistance, and channels now
(along with my other indicators).
Channels are forming and this makes
for some great opportunities both long
and short
unless chart patterns change (and they might on monday), i will only go long for daytrades. the risk of holding long overnight is not worth it, by my current charts. holding shorts overnight right now presents much less risk, because even if the spx rallies up (bad for shorts) the direction now is down, so the rally is only to a lower high. Then, since its a swing, I continue to hold and the price moves back down, back into the profit zone.
on Thursday, when everyone was getting excited and going long, instead i shorted into that rally close to the high, (via SPXU 3x bear spx etf) getting an excellent price, exiting half of it on Friday, for an easy 8% profit overnight, and holding the other half. In fact, I did not have an "exit short" signal Friday via my system/strategy but I exited a portion anyways to lock in some profits. Anyone who went long Thursday overnight swing was in trouble on Friday.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Saturday, October 31, 2009
SPX break of Daily 50 MA NOT a false break, so far.
On Friday's post, before the market opened, I suggested that the SPX (S&P 500) break of Daily 50 MA was NOT a false breakdown but rather a continuation of a downtrend in the 60 minute charts. This was the opposite view of most analysts, who were saying it was a temporary pierce.
Thus far, the SPX break was not false. It continued lower on Friday, with a big red candle.
The Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ have similarly bearish patterns.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thus far, the SPX break was not false. It continued lower on Friday, with a big red candle.
The Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ have similarly bearish patterns.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPX headed down, opp for mid term POSITION trade
If you have comments on this posting, you are welcome to post them using the link below. Whether you agree or disagree does not matter, I welcome different views and discussion.
The weekly chart below shows several reasons why a decline in SPX should be expected. It is still in the early stages, but unless charts change, it is beginning to happen.
The opportunity is presenting itself for those that want to just "hold" a position for 3-18 weeks without needing to devote a lot of time to its management. Whether to enter immediately or wait for a bounce up to 1040 / 1070 is a choice each one must make. If 1020 is violated lower and sustains, then we have double (triple on qqqq) top and I don't expect to see 1070, just a continuing move down to the other targets. If SPX gets to 1020 and then moves back up, then 1070/80 is possible, and a Head And Shoulders could form. Or, SPX can bounce from here at 1035 and we have a Head And Shoulders with a sloping neckline.
Targets are 1020, 1002, 955, 916, 877, 667, 630. I don't know how far down it will go, my goal right now is 1020, 1002 to start. Basically, if each target breaks lower, then I expect a move to the next lower target. I will refine my targets to more exact numbers as the days and weeks pass forward, based on market action.
Please note that this references a POSITION trade, intended to be held for 3-16 weeks. Therefore, SPX will not go straight down. It will have bounces in between. Position trades must ignore the bounces up UNTIL a trend reversal occurs (when higher highs and higher lows start appearing, along with a break over the downtrend line).
We've all enjoyed this rally, but rallies don't last forever.
First, note the divergence between MACD histogram and prices. I have drawn an upward sloping yellow trendline for prices, and a downward slope for MACD. This is a significant divergence because it is occurring on the weekly charts, not only the daily. When prices go up and another indicator like MACD (or RSI, Stoch, MoneyFlow, OBV, etc) goes down, it is a warning that the trend is in danger.
From January 1, 2006 until today, there have only been 6 moves of MACD below the zero line on the weekly charts for spx, so they don't occur frequently.
But why now? This divergence has been in place since June and prices just keep going up up up. As mentioned, this is still in the early stages, but I have already entered a position at spx 1098 (when spx tested the 1100 the second time and failed). There is still opportunity to enter short, given appropriate risk controls. That means, exiting from the position (whether for a profit or a loss) when the bulls regain control and successfully produce a trend change. This does NOT mean to exit at the first sign of higher prices, as mentioned, trades held in this period must ignore the moves up and down unless a trend change occurs.
I've entered "now" (actually pre-maturely last week) because we have the following:
* Red weekly candle. closing at the low.
* Stoch bearish cross (the 2 lines crossed, and moved under 80)
* The RSI shows a double top, with a marginal break below the double top low
* MACD ready to go negative
* The higher volume on the last week's red candle
* The daily and hourly charts are supporting my early entry here
* I have other charts with lots of confusing lines and other studies, indicators, etc but I'm not going into those details here. Maybe later I'll add another post with details, but I don't have time for that now. I've already spent 8-10 hours on this post (including analysis of the other detailed charts mentioned, not just the simplified high-level weekly chart shown below)
Can this be a false breakdown? Might someone lose money if trying to short and the price goes up? Of course, the answer is yes. Investing always carries risk. My position carries little risk now, because I entered early. However, note that I entered on the SECOND test of the spx. Then, SPX actually did go UP after i entered, threatening to start another rally up to 1120/1200. Because it was a position trade, I ignored this, because I did not see the trend reversal. On March 2, the MACD did cross under 0 and then quickly reversed up. At that time, I was also short and forced to exit the trade with a 5% loss. That loss, however, was offset by gains from other positions. More than offset, because I simply exited my short and reversed long (exiting the long side somewhat too early at 1078 because I thought 1080 marked a double top. I didn't make it to the 1100 high on the position trade, although I did do some short term swings on the way up there. But swing is a different story). July 6 was another "almost cross the 0 line, where i exited with a small profit actually). So, sometimes we need to take a small loss before it becomes a large one, or we must settle for a smaller profit because our target was not reached and the market reversed on us. And the MACD has not actually crossed 0 yet, it is at 3.27 now. Also, the RSI has only marginally violated its prior low of it double top, so it could turn up.
The "yellow lines" on the chart are hand-drawn by me. The other studies are calculated by the computer software. The yellow lines near the volume are just my way of saying "look here".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
The weekly chart below shows several reasons why a decline in SPX should be expected. It is still in the early stages, but unless charts change, it is beginning to happen.
The opportunity is presenting itself for those that want to just "hold" a position for 3-18 weeks without needing to devote a lot of time to its management. Whether to enter immediately or wait for a bounce up to 1040 / 1070 is a choice each one must make. If 1020 is violated lower and sustains, then we have double (triple on qqqq) top and I don't expect to see 1070, just a continuing move down to the other targets. If SPX gets to 1020 and then moves back up, then 1070/80 is possible, and a Head And Shoulders could form. Or, SPX can bounce from here at 1035 and we have a Head And Shoulders with a sloping neckline.
Targets are 1020, 1002, 955, 916, 877, 667, 630. I don't know how far down it will go, my goal right now is 1020, 1002 to start. Basically, if each target breaks lower, then I expect a move to the next lower target. I will refine my targets to more exact numbers as the days and weeks pass forward, based on market action.
Please note that this references a POSITION trade, intended to be held for 3-16 weeks. Therefore, SPX will not go straight down. It will have bounces in between. Position trades must ignore the bounces up UNTIL a trend reversal occurs (when higher highs and higher lows start appearing, along with a break over the downtrend line).
We've all enjoyed this rally, but rallies don't last forever.
First, note the divergence between MACD histogram and prices. I have drawn an upward sloping yellow trendline for prices, and a downward slope for MACD. This is a significant divergence because it is occurring on the weekly charts, not only the daily. When prices go up and another indicator like MACD (or RSI, Stoch, MoneyFlow, OBV, etc) goes down, it is a warning that the trend is in danger.
From January 1, 2006 until today, there have only been 6 moves of MACD below the zero line on the weekly charts for spx, so they don't occur frequently.
But why now? This divergence has been in place since June and prices just keep going up up up. As mentioned, this is still in the early stages, but I have already entered a position at spx 1098 (when spx tested the 1100 the second time and failed). There is still opportunity to enter short, given appropriate risk controls. That means, exiting from the position (whether for a profit or a loss) when the bulls regain control and successfully produce a trend change. This does NOT mean to exit at the first sign of higher prices, as mentioned, trades held in this period must ignore the moves up and down unless a trend change occurs.
I've entered "now" (actually pre-maturely last week) because we have the following:
* Red weekly candle. closing at the low.
* Stoch bearish cross (the 2 lines crossed, and moved under 80)
* The RSI shows a double top, with a marginal break below the double top low
* MACD ready to go negative
* The higher volume on the last week's red candle
* The daily and hourly charts are supporting my early entry here
* I have other charts with lots of confusing lines and other studies, indicators, etc but I'm not going into those details here. Maybe later I'll add another post with details, but I don't have time for that now. I've already spent 8-10 hours on this post (including analysis of the other detailed charts mentioned, not just the simplified high-level weekly chart shown below)
Can this be a false breakdown? Might someone lose money if trying to short and the price goes up? Of course, the answer is yes. Investing always carries risk. My position carries little risk now, because I entered early. However, note that I entered on the SECOND test of the spx. Then, SPX actually did go UP after i entered, threatening to start another rally up to 1120/1200. Because it was a position trade, I ignored this, because I did not see the trend reversal. On March 2, the MACD did cross under 0 and then quickly reversed up. At that time, I was also short and forced to exit the trade with a 5% loss. That loss, however, was offset by gains from other positions. More than offset, because I simply exited my short and reversed long (exiting the long side somewhat too early at 1078 because I thought 1080 marked a double top. I didn't make it to the 1100 high on the position trade, although I did do some short term swings on the way up there. But swing is a different story). July 6 was another "almost cross the 0 line, where i exited with a small profit actually). So, sometimes we need to take a small loss before it becomes a large one, or we must settle for a smaller profit because our target was not reached and the market reversed on us. And the MACD has not actually crossed 0 yet, it is at 3.27 now. Also, the RSI has only marginally violated its prior low of it double top, so it could turn up.
The "yellow lines" on the chart are hand-drawn by me. The other studies are calculated by the computer software. The yellow lines near the volume are just my way of saying "look here".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, October 30, 2009
Was the SPX break of Daily 50 MA a false breakdown?
Was the SPX break of Daily 50 MA a false breakdown?
We will know for sure shortly, but I do not think so. Why? Because there are many bearish signals. and also, have a look at XLF, which broke its 50 MA on 10/26 before spx broke its 50 MA. And what happened yesterday in XLF? It moved up to test its 50 MA, nearly reaching it but falling short. Therefore, I consider this a valid break of the SPX 50 MA, with a valid break of the XLF 50MA and a backtest of the XLF 50 MA that has held thus far. This is now 4 days that XLF is under its 50 MA. Financials led the rally up, they will be the first to lead it down.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
We will know for sure shortly, but I do not think so. Why? Because there are many bearish signals. and also, have a look at XLF, which broke its 50 MA on 10/26 before spx broke its 50 MA. And what happened yesterday in XLF? It moved up to test its 50 MA, nearly reaching it but falling short. Therefore, I consider this a valid break of the SPX 50 MA, with a valid break of the XLF 50MA and a backtest of the XLF 50 MA that has held thus far. This is now 4 days that XLF is under its 50 MA. Financials led the rally up, they will be the first to lead it down.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily ramblings
3:48
this is very hard...i will cover 1/2 my swings to lock profits before todays close. I'm short in swings and positions. It "seems" like monday should be up, but my charts say "dont cover shorts yet. stay short"
3:36
amazingly, my charts say DOWN from this lil bounce up....spx 1039 last
3:32
i thinks whats happening here...holding 1031 is going to imply a 1014/16 target instead of 1020.
3:28pm
we almost have a bearish engulfing candle pattern in spx, close enough.
3:27pm
adding 47.47 as another spxu target, in addition to others below.
3:12
charts say at least one more push lower, but dont say how much. last spx 1036
3:10 pm
i said we would break the low and make a new one...but this doesnt count yet... its only a marginal new low we just made
3:07 pm
NOW it hit my old 4709 target and stllaed exactly there in spxu. but my new targets are higher
3:06PM
obligated to sell 20% spxu scalp from .40 at .95 HOD....i must per my rule
2:57
if spx makes a lower high here, it will setup a bear diverg in 3min. looks like a bear diverg setting up into the close here. i think we will retest the low, and break it
2:43
charts suggest spxu retest of its high, then the higher target if high hurdled
2:41
3min spx has bull inv HS and bear desc triangle. mixed signals. take your pick. charts suggest downward bias, of the triangle. but there are some bullish hammer candles in spx. why do we have such conflicting signals? because spx is consolodating here, and these conflicts are typical.
2:27
The chop action has actually raised the spxu target to 47.27
2:22
This action here is what was expected in earlier post. Consolodate from the 15mins
2:20 pm
ES volume now at 2:20 pm has already exceeded total volume for ES from yesterday all day.. high volume red day thus far
1:53
spx 15min chart suggests possible 1048. not confirmed. and they suggest not straight up to 1048 but 1044,42,47, 43,48 kinda thing, if it happens. but 1041 is impt # to hurdle on spx first.. last 1039
1:51
watching for poss mini bull inv HS in spx...not formed, only possible, watching. last spx1039.
1:43
see if spx can get over 1041. that could give 1049
1:34pm
VIX SHOULD BE DROPPING HERE PER CHARTS AND IT IS NOT... thats bearish. if VIX hits over 33.25, then fireworks to downside (not expected today)
1:29
46.95/47.09 is spxu target on break over 46.57
1:27
as expected just 45minutes ago, vix quickly found 30 on the break of 2803.
1:22
scalpers would sell at .63 limit...i would hold longer of course lol...or sell a piece only
1:18pm
paper trade: spxu 46.12, stop 45.84 for now
1:03
spxu blasted right through my 46.24 target from 12:22...hit 46.67
1:00PM
I am seeing the very early stages of a 60min bullish divergence in spx. I fully expect this to cause a bounce up, probably to the upper trendline. The bounce can be rather large. However, even with this later bounce, the trend is down. Again, the divergence is not developed yet, suggesting either sideways action or lower spx from here. last spx 1039.
Furthermore, the 15min charts do NOT show a divergence but rather they support the move down, again suggesting either consolodation sideways or lower spx.
12:58
btw, when i say "signal", i mean a combination of many different indicators and chart patterns, not a single "signal"
12:57
There are so many channels, some wide, some narrow, on the 60min chart. this makes it challenging. IN fact spx could hit 1080 and still be bearish, though i don't expect that now. i do expect a bounce to test the upper channel lines, but have no signal for that now.
12:53
i know this is hard to believe..i know...but i NOW have a SWING SHORT signal..confirmed...at this low price...this could cause momentum shorts to enter here. last spx 1039.
12:52
my chart lines suggest 1031 next, which just so happens to be close to prior breakout supportt around 1030ish spx
12:47
the 133t chart was correct. spx backed down and has not made 1047.
12:45
if vix breaks 28.04 its headed for 30ish...last 27.77
12:39
the 133t is not supporting the 1min long move up to 1047
12:38
ok have the 1,2min long signal for 1047 target...i'm not scalping it. last spx 1044.
12:36
spx next targget down 1031. last 1043.
12:34
spx might not make over 1047. sellers waiting at 1047 until pierced higher
12:30
as predicted at 12:18, we made a new low just now :) spx LOD now 1041.88
12:22
spxu next target is 46.24. last is 45.19
12:18 pm
charts suggest that the low is not in today. last spx 1050.
12:17 pm
yesterday i suggested that we would not put in a higher high today, that 1066 would hold as R. It has.
12:16 PM
SPXU swing position is rocking. Up 5% in one day.
8:06
Yesterday I entered SPXU as a swing at 43.77. There is opportunity to exit here in pre-market trading around 43.80 right now, but I will remain in. If I were nervous about the trade, I would exit here, but my charts suggest higher spxu (lower spx).
7:30AM
All numbers in this 7:30 AM post are for ES, not spx. Last night the ES futures trading had a high of 1062.75 and low of 1055.75. Right now, ES is at 1057, and I expect it to test 1056, likely breaking it and heading for Bearish scenario below.
Key numbers are 1055, 1061, 1064 to determine direction. A break of any of those should cause further movement in the direction of the break, a hold of any of them will cause prices to move back in the opposite direction.
Right now, momentum is for lower ES, but it must break the 1055 to get further movement down. If 1055 holds, then Bullish scenario 2 takes place.
Bullish sceanario 2: ES declines to 1056, holds there, pivots up to break over 1060, and goes to 1062, 1064,1070, 1081
Bearish scenario: ES stays under 1060, and goes to 1056,1052, 1044, 1037
Resistance at 1064
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
this is very hard...i will cover 1/2 my swings to lock profits before todays close. I'm short in swings and positions. It "seems" like monday should be up, but my charts say "dont cover shorts yet. stay short"
3:36
amazingly, my charts say DOWN from this lil bounce up....spx 1039 last
3:32
i thinks whats happening here...holding 1031 is going to imply a 1014/16 target instead of 1020.
3:28pm
we almost have a bearish engulfing candle pattern in spx, close enough.
3:27pm
adding 47.47 as another spxu target, in addition to others below.
3:12
charts say at least one more push lower, but dont say how much. last spx 1036
3:10 pm
i said we would break the low and make a new one...but this doesnt count yet... its only a marginal new low we just made
3:07 pm
NOW it hit my old 4709 target and stllaed exactly there in spxu. but my new targets are higher
3:06PM
obligated to sell 20% spxu scalp from .40 at .95 HOD....i must per my rule
2:57
if spx makes a lower high here, it will setup a bear diverg in 3min. looks like a bear diverg setting up into the close here. i think we will retest the low, and break it
2:43
charts suggest spxu retest of its high, then the higher target if high hurdled
2:41
3min spx has bull inv HS and bear desc triangle. mixed signals. take your pick. charts suggest downward bias, of the triangle. but there are some bullish hammer candles in spx. why do we have such conflicting signals? because spx is consolodating here, and these conflicts are typical.
2:27
The chop action has actually raised the spxu target to 47.27
2:22
This action here is what was expected in earlier post. Consolodate from the 15mins
2:20 pm
ES volume now at 2:20 pm has already exceeded total volume for ES from yesterday all day.. high volume red day thus far
1:53
spx 15min chart suggests possible 1048. not confirmed. and they suggest not straight up to 1048 but 1044,42,47, 43,48 kinda thing, if it happens. but 1041 is impt # to hurdle on spx first.. last 1039
1:51
watching for poss mini bull inv HS in spx...not formed, only possible, watching. last spx1039.
1:43
see if spx can get over 1041. that could give 1049
1:34pm
VIX SHOULD BE DROPPING HERE PER CHARTS AND IT IS NOT... thats bearish. if VIX hits over 33.25, then fireworks to downside (not expected today)
1:29
46.95/47.09 is spxu target on break over 46.57
1:27
as expected just 45minutes ago, vix quickly found 30 on the break of 2803.
1:22
scalpers would sell at .63 limit...i would hold longer of course lol...or sell a piece only
1:18pm
paper trade: spxu 46.12, stop 45.84 for now
1:03
spxu blasted right through my 46.24 target from 12:22...hit 46.67
1:00PM
I am seeing the very early stages of a 60min bullish divergence in spx. I fully expect this to cause a bounce up, probably to the upper trendline. The bounce can be rather large. However, even with this later bounce, the trend is down. Again, the divergence is not developed yet, suggesting either sideways action or lower spx from here. last spx 1039.
Furthermore, the 15min charts do NOT show a divergence but rather they support the move down, again suggesting either consolodation sideways or lower spx.
12:58
btw, when i say "signal", i mean a combination of many different indicators and chart patterns, not a single "signal"
12:57
There are so many channels, some wide, some narrow, on the 60min chart. this makes it challenging. IN fact spx could hit 1080 and still be bearish, though i don't expect that now. i do expect a bounce to test the upper channel lines, but have no signal for that now.
12:53
i know this is hard to believe..i know...but i NOW have a SWING SHORT signal..confirmed...at this low price...this could cause momentum shorts to enter here. last spx 1039.
12:52
my chart lines suggest 1031 next, which just so happens to be close to prior breakout supportt around 1030ish spx
12:47
the 133t chart was correct. spx backed down and has not made 1047.
12:45
if vix breaks 28.04 its headed for 30ish...last 27.77
12:39
the 133t is not supporting the 1min long move up to 1047
12:38
ok have the 1,2min long signal for 1047 target...i'm not scalping it. last spx 1044.
12:36
spx next targget down 1031. last 1043.
12:34
spx might not make over 1047. sellers waiting at 1047 until pierced higher
12:30
as predicted at 12:18, we made a new low just now :) spx LOD now 1041.88
12:22
spxu next target is 46.24. last is 45.19
12:18 pm
charts suggest that the low is not in today. last spx 1050.
12:17 pm
yesterday i suggested that we would not put in a higher high today, that 1066 would hold as R. It has.
12:16 PM
SPXU swing position is rocking. Up 5% in one day.
8:06
Yesterday I entered SPXU as a swing at 43.77. There is opportunity to exit here in pre-market trading around 43.80 right now, but I will remain in. If I were nervous about the trade, I would exit here, but my charts suggest higher spxu (lower spx).
7:30AM
All numbers in this 7:30 AM post are for ES, not spx. Last night the ES futures trading had a high of 1062.75 and low of 1055.75. Right now, ES is at 1057, and I expect it to test 1056, likely breaking it and heading for Bearish scenario below.
Key numbers are 1055, 1061, 1064 to determine direction. A break of any of those should cause further movement in the direction of the break, a hold of any of them will cause prices to move back in the opposite direction.
Right now, momentum is for lower ES, but it must break the 1055 to get further movement down. If 1055 holds, then Bullish scenario 2 takes place.
Bullish sceanario 1: ES breaks over 1060, and goes to 1062, 1064,1070, 1081
Bullish sceanario 2: ES declines to 1056, holds there, pivots up to break over 1060, and goes to 1062, 1064,1070, 1081
Resistance at 1064
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Daily ramblings Wedn nite, Thursday day
15:59
TNA closed at 39.53 for about $1 profit. Sold several times today at different levels, nice profit.
Bought TNA today 38.51, sold at 39.57,,39.41, 39.99, 39.53, for 2.3% to 3.8% on each sale.
15:58
for sure there are bullish signs, so us shorts need to be careful. we have bull harami. we have possible bull V or cup handle.
15:52
TNA missed by 40.09 target by 5 cents..HOD 40.03. Target was set when tna was at 39.70.
15:48
charts suggest that spx is done, that 1066 was it for now, even for tomorrow, unless we gap up or open above the close. A pop up is allowed, perhaps a marginal violation over 1066, but they suggest it's about it for now.
15:44
here's 1063 test... expecting break..
3:38pm
VIX has a double bottom 15min, ready for a bull failure swing (bearish for spx)
3:32
70% confidence break < 1063. last spx 1065.
3:30
i have an "early swing short" signal right here, now. SPX 1065
3:24
It looks like spx 1066 could very well become the new spx 1100...some overshoots of it, but building R there like 1100 did. time will tell.
3:23pm
spx 1066 short into the close signal now. expecting lower into the close, unless charts change.
3:16pm
1063 spx should get downside going, if spx goes there. last spx 1066
3:00
tna next target is 40.09....last 39.70
2:03 pm
I wouldnt be surprised to see spx get over 1060 and put in a shooting star candle.
1:07
ok...i'm in that spxu as a daytrade at 43.71. I will keep a portion as swing, if merited. i still have no "real" swing signal short...this is early...using daytrade conversion technique. Why did I enter? I have other signals, including a tripe bull divergence in 3min. stop at 40.17 for now...yes its a wide stop...i'm budgeted at this level. warning--- the spxu is crazy voliatile...not for the faint of heart...sds is milder and SH is normal.
12:57
trying some spxu at 43.71. purely based on pivots. agressive trade but have plenty of profits to re-invest.
1249
spx rite near this 1063....lets see...this is CRUCIAL
1234
39.49 sds....marginal violation for the .53 support i mentioned earlier.
1232
1063 spx should show some strong resistance...if we blast above that, something different is happening
12:31
bullish harami daily candle right now. however confirmation will be needed tomorrow. still am in 60min downtrend. lets remember the last fall was steep, this retracement is allowed. but certainly watching. for sds, a higher high and higher low is allowed.
12:27
here is the spx pop to 1059. as expected earlier below.
12:22
ABOVE THE MARKET i will consider sds 40.07 but no order in..just mental idea. 40.07 pierce could bring momentum back. why don't i buy sds here at 3976? for the same reason i did not buy it at 40.11....i would rather pay higher when momen shifts...in this case, i'll pay less or the same, but with momentum on my side
1218
i think sds will break under its daily support line, backtest it, and blast back above it
1214
expecting spx to pop over 1057 in next 2-3 minutes...near 12:18
1210
the expected move back up in spx is happening now...note though that even though prices are moving up, bullish momentum is weakening, at least for now. chart still says over 1057
1206
Bearish RISING wedge forming in spx, which points to lower prices, BUT MORE UP could come first in these wedges.
1147
On my sds chart,I've got all kinds of hand drawn lines. From last thurs to Tues this week, sds was in a "normal speed" up channel (down for spx). The on Wed we got an accelerated steep up move that blasted right through the upper channel R line, which is holding as support. SDS has marginally violoated that line and is now in a temp 3hour down channel. if sds loses 39.52 it could see the lower original channel support line around 38.70. right now, sds is acting fine, just a moderate, expected pullback, but this risk needs to be monitored.
1145
there is risk of a move to 1080ish spx. i don't see it happening now, i see the partial formation of this chart pattern. Until it forms, i'm still bearish in 60min frame.
1140
ipod and bose time. tunes. listening to 2ndhand serenade, chicago, coldplay etc.
1137
ABOVE THE MARKET...ABOVE.... sds at the market when it hurdles 40.73. i fully intend on buying it lower, this is my guaranteed entry to allow participation in the event of a sudden drop.
1133
this chop is setting up a beautiful opp to re-enter swing shorts...going very well here...patiently waiting...so hard to wait...discipline
1128
15min spx is starting to form a divergence saying "short"....not there yet. last spx 1056
1127
unless spx consolodates, spx 1061 might not even be safe to short....i'll wait...could go higher
1119
i should have kept my .53 limit instead of manual...it would have gotten filled, instead i ended up with .43 on that piece
1117
if spx consolodats around here i will look for a swing short entry. often the best swing short entries are found in the less volatile consolodation periods
1105
sold som tna at 39.41, 38.53 paid
1101
tna hit my .17 and did a quick pop to .28, as expected. the .17 was impt. stops were run there. i might cancel my .56 limit sell and do manually to see if it gets .63 or more.
10:59
charts suggest spx retest of 1057 and marginal overshoot to 1060. last spx 1053
10:55
tna at .13 close to testing my .17 breakout #.
1052
i now see a push higher in spx, followed by consolod, followed by decline. last spx 1052
1044
bullish momen is weakening...still no swing short sig for me
1042
spx declined some here, to 1051, but my charts say "another push up" in spx. looking to short "up there" if able.
1040
if tna gets over 3917 it should overshoot my first target of 39.56 (to 39.63) before Target 39.73.
1039
spx stalled exactly where i expected, pullback there was expected, waiting to see if it goes over 1057ish
1037
tna hit .65 just 2 cents from my stop. still in. may change stop to lossen but now its still at .65
10:25
I am still looking to re-enter on the short side as a swing, but because it's a swing, i need to wait longer for the proper setup. Last SDS is 40.04. Even if i need to pay more than 40.04 for sds, I'd rather wait for the momentum shift to go back to the bears. Bulls have momen now INTRADAY only, swing momen is with bears still.
10:24
sell some of my tna limit .57. will raise stop to .63
10:21
TNA modified targets of 39.56 before Target 39.73. Also watching closely here to see if I need to exit early. last tna 39.18.
10:04
Looking for tna to hold 38.47
10:01
In tna 38.51. Filled. Target 39.73 on break over 38.90
10:00
i will try tna 38.51 if filled
9:54
well this little
decline was expected,,,,still holding.
spx suggests high of day not in if
support holds here
9:49
qqqq target 42.38 if
41.89 breaks and sustains
but i like 42.18 and
42.23/27 better
9:42
10minutes has
passed. usually we will see a
contra-move here, then resumption
of open direction if the contramove
holds
that is, a spike down
here would be no problem for longs, as
long as support holds, and then higher
highs
9:23AM
Personally, i will NOT fade the open today. Nor will i trade it in the same direction, as i did yesterday. i'm stepping aside from the open. Trading the open is very tricky. I have no clear sense, I expect some whipsaw, so I'll step aside. A trader always has THREE choices, not 2. Buy, sell, or do nothing.
9:12 AM
i have several trendlines in ES 60min due to chop...ES broke over the steepest one and is backtesting it now, and it did a perfect touch for DTL R #2 (less steep). Steepest one had 1046 R, second one has 1050 R.
7:59 AM
I'm expecting a bounce in spx to 1060 (actually my work says about 1056 / 1064), although the charts technically have not yet given the signal that spx is headed there. If we get there, then I'll evaluate possible re-entry to short, but I have no standing llimit order to automatically enter. Why? Because I want to observe the action first. SPX could get 1079, even 1089, and STILL be bearish, although right now I'd think 1079 would be any rally cap for today, with the 1060 (1056/64) area most likely.
However, to get to 1060 spx, 1048 must first be hurdled. Inability of SPX to hurdle 1048 might present an opportunity to re-short even at that "low" level. I do have a signal that suggests that SPX will nit 1048 if 1042 holds and 1045.50 is pierced.
7:47
As expected in the 11:17PM post, the ES stayed in a relatively narrow range from 1037 to 1044, and 1037 held. They did overshoot my estimate of 1042 by 2 points.
Charts suggest downward movement for now, although mild, probably contninuing in that range until either 1037 or 1044 is broken. If one is broken, we should see movement in direction of the break. Right now, seems headed to test 1041 then 1038/37 next.
1:22 AM Thurs
ES continues in the range, going up to 1042 from 1040.
11:17 PM Wedn
Will ES trade in 1037 to 1042 level tonight? we will see. last ES 1039 with 1040 high so far. But giving 1042 as possible range for next 4 hours. After that, things can change. If 1037 breaks lower, then likely we will get a gap down at the open at 9:30 AM.
Again, I re-iterate. I will be selling (shorting) all rallies for now. SPX has the potential for a serious downtrend to 1020, a pop up to 1072, then a break of 1020 to 918, unless the bulls step up and produce higher highs and higher lows. Chart do not suggest the bulls will do this just yet.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
TNA closed at 39.53 for about $1 profit. Sold several times today at different levels, nice profit.
Bought TNA today 38.51, sold at 39.57,,39.41, 39.99, 39.53, for 2.3% to 3.8% on each sale.
15:58
for sure there are bullish signs, so us shorts need to be careful. we have bull harami. we have possible bull V or cup handle.
15:52
TNA missed by 40.09 target by 5 cents..HOD 40.03. Target was set when tna was at 39.70.
15:48
charts suggest that spx is done, that 1066 was it for now, even for tomorrow, unless we gap up or open above the close. A pop up is allowed, perhaps a marginal violation over 1066, but they suggest it's about it for now.
15:44
here's 1063 test... expecting break..
3:38pm
VIX has a double bottom 15min, ready for a bull failure swing (bearish for spx)
3:32
70% confidence break < 1063. last spx 1065.
3:30
i have an "early swing short" signal right here, now. SPX 1065
3:24
It looks like spx 1066 could very well become the new spx 1100...some overshoots of it, but building R there like 1100 did. time will tell.
3:23pm
spx 1066 short into the close signal now. expecting lower into the close, unless charts change.
3:16pm
1063 spx should get downside going, if spx goes there. last spx 1066
3:00
tna next target is 40.09....last 39.70
2:03 pm
I wouldnt be surprised to see spx get over 1060 and put in a shooting star candle.
1:07
ok...i'm in that spxu as a daytrade at 43.71. I will keep a portion as swing, if merited. i still have no "real" swing signal short...this is early...using daytrade conversion technique. Why did I enter? I have other signals, including a tripe bull divergence in 3min. stop at 40.17 for now...yes its a wide stop...i'm budgeted at this level. warning--- the spxu is crazy voliatile...not for the faint of heart...sds is milder and SH is normal.
12:57
trying some spxu at 43.71. purely based on pivots. agressive trade but have plenty of profits to re-invest.
1249
spx rite near this 1063....lets see...this is CRUCIAL
1234
39.49 sds....marginal violation for the .53 support i mentioned earlier.
1232
1063 spx should show some strong resistance...if we blast above that, something different is happening
12:31
bullish harami daily candle right now. however confirmation will be needed tomorrow. still am in 60min downtrend. lets remember the last fall was steep, this retracement is allowed. but certainly watching. for sds, a higher high and higher low is allowed.
12:27
here is the spx pop to 1059. as expected earlier below.
12:22
ABOVE THE MARKET i will consider sds 40.07 but no order in..just mental idea. 40.07 pierce could bring momentum back. why don't i buy sds here at 3976? for the same reason i did not buy it at 40.11....i would rather pay higher when momen shifts...in this case, i'll pay less or the same, but with momentum on my side
1218
i think sds will break under its daily support line, backtest it, and blast back above it
1214
expecting spx to pop over 1057 in next 2-3 minutes...near 12:18
1210
the expected move back up in spx is happening now...note though that even though prices are moving up, bullish momentum is weakening, at least for now. chart still says over 1057
1206
Bearish RISING wedge forming in spx, which points to lower prices, BUT MORE UP could come first in these wedges.
1147
On my sds chart,I've got all kinds of hand drawn lines. From last thurs to Tues this week, sds was in a "normal speed" up channel (down for spx). The on Wed we got an accelerated steep up move that blasted right through the upper channel R line, which is holding as support. SDS has marginally violoated that line and is now in a temp 3hour down channel. if sds loses 39.52 it could see the lower original channel support line around 38.70. right now, sds is acting fine, just a moderate, expected pullback, but this risk needs to be monitored.
1145
there is risk of a move to 1080ish spx. i don't see it happening now, i see the partial formation of this chart pattern. Until it forms, i'm still bearish in 60min frame.
1140
ipod and bose time. tunes. listening to 2ndhand serenade, chicago, coldplay etc.
1137
ABOVE THE MARKET...ABOVE.... sds at the market when it hurdles 40.73. i fully intend on buying it lower, this is my guaranteed entry to allow participation in the event of a sudden drop.
1133
this chop is setting up a beautiful opp to re-enter swing shorts...going very well here...patiently waiting...so hard to wait...discipline
1128
15min spx is starting to form a divergence saying "short"....not there yet. last spx 1056
1127
unless spx consolodates, spx 1061 might not even be safe to short....i'll wait...could go higher
1119
i should have kept my .53 limit instead of manual...it would have gotten filled, instead i ended up with .43 on that piece
1117
if spx consolodats around here i will look for a swing short entry. often the best swing short entries are found in the less volatile consolodation periods
1105
sold som tna at 39.41, 38.53 paid
1101
tna hit my .17 and did a quick pop to .28, as expected. the .17 was impt. stops were run there. i might cancel my .56 limit sell and do manually to see if it gets .63 or more.
10:59
charts suggest spx retest of 1057 and marginal overshoot to 1060. last spx 1053
10:55
tna at .13 close to testing my .17 breakout #.
1052
i now see a push higher in spx, followed by consolod, followed by decline. last spx 1052
1044
bullish momen is weakening...still no swing short sig for me
1042
spx declined some here, to 1051, but my charts say "another push up" in spx. looking to short "up there" if able.
1040
if tna gets over 3917 it should overshoot my first target of 39.56 (to 39.63) before Target 39.73.
1039
spx stalled exactly where i expected, pullback there was expected, waiting to see if it goes over 1057ish
1037
tna hit .65 just 2 cents from my stop. still in. may change stop to lossen but now its still at .65
10:25
I am still looking to re-enter on the short side as a swing, but because it's a swing, i need to wait longer for the proper setup. Last SDS is 40.04. Even if i need to pay more than 40.04 for sds, I'd rather wait for the momentum shift to go back to the bears. Bulls have momen now INTRADAY only, swing momen is with bears still.
10:24
sell some of my tna limit .57. will raise stop to .63
10:21
TNA modified targets of 39.56 before Target 39.73. Also watching closely here to see if I need to exit early. last tna 39.18.
10:04
Looking for tna to hold 38.47
10:01
In tna 38.51. Filled. Target 39.73 on break over 38.90
10:00
i will try tna 38.51 if filled
9:54
well this little
decline was expected,,,,still holding.
spx suggests high of day not in if
support holds here
9:49
qqqq target 42.38 if
41.89 breaks and sustains
but i like 42.18 and
42.23/27 better
9:42
10minutes has
passed. usually we will see a
contra-move here, then resumption
of open direction if the contramove
holds
that is, a spike down
here would be no problem for longs, as
long as support holds, and then higher
highs
9:23AM
Personally, i will NOT fade the open today. Nor will i trade it in the same direction, as i did yesterday. i'm stepping aside from the open. Trading the open is very tricky. I have no clear sense, I expect some whipsaw, so I'll step aside. A trader always has THREE choices, not 2. Buy, sell, or do nothing.
9:12 AM
i have several trendlines in ES 60min due to chop...ES broke over the steepest one and is backtesting it now, and it did a perfect touch for DTL R #2 (less steep). Steepest one had 1046 R, second one has 1050 R.
7:59 AM
I'm expecting a bounce in spx to 1060 (actually my work says about 1056 / 1064), although the charts technically have not yet given the signal that spx is headed there. If we get there, then I'll evaluate possible re-entry to short, but I have no standing llimit order to automatically enter. Why? Because I want to observe the action first. SPX could get 1079, even 1089, and STILL be bearish, although right now I'd think 1079 would be any rally cap for today, with the 1060 (1056/64) area most likely.
However, to get to 1060 spx, 1048 must first be hurdled. Inability of SPX to hurdle 1048 might present an opportunity to re-short even at that "low" level. I do have a signal that suggests that SPX will nit 1048 if 1042 holds and 1045.50 is pierced.
7:47
As expected in the 11:17PM post, the ES stayed in a relatively narrow range from 1037 to 1044, and 1037 held. They did overshoot my estimate of 1042 by 2 points.
Charts suggest downward movement for now, although mild, probably contninuing in that range until either 1037 or 1044 is broken. If one is broken, we should see movement in direction of the break. Right now, seems headed to test 1041 then 1038/37 next.
1:22 AM Thurs
ES continues in the range, going up to 1042 from 1040.
11:17 PM Wedn
Will ES trade in 1037 to 1042 level tonight? we will see. last ES 1039 with 1040 high so far. But giving 1042 as possible range for next 4 hours. After that, things can change. If 1037 breaks lower, then likely we will get a gap down at the open at 9:30 AM.
Again, I re-iterate. I will be selling (shorting) all rallies for now. SPX has the potential for a serious downtrend to 1020, a pop up to 1072, then a break of 1020 to 918, unless the bulls step up and produce higher highs and higher lows. Chart do not suggest the bulls will do this just yet.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily ramblings
SUMMARY OF THE DAILY POSTS
1. SPX did put in a new low of 1042.19, right at my 1042 target. Went from 1052 at time of post to 1042. (2:21pm 2:06, post)
2. SDS hit the first two targets of 40.69, 40.98. The 41.04 High for today was close to 40.98, just 6 cents away.
3. The 12:37 expected breakout lower in spx did happen, about 10 minutes early.
4. Sold faz at 23.03, cost 21.53, a 7% profit in 8 hours. High was 23.09. Also sold some faz at lower price of 22.90 and 22.43.
5. Did a quick trade (10 minutes) at the open in TNA at 40.71 for 2.5% profit in 20 minutes. sold 50% of it at 41.17. Stopped out at breakeven at 40.71 for the rest. Although it looks like it was a good trade, it quickly turned against me, stopping me out. I fully intended to hold this much longer, but it hit 21.17 and started to weaken, so I sold it for profit and raised my stop, in case it went higher. It did not go higher, so the 2nd half was sold at breakeven (no profit). If a trade "does not behave", I like to exit instead of "hoping".
2:21pm
70% confidence level for me that we break LOD in spx
2:06pm
On spx, there is now a micro bear divergence 15min charts that could push spx lower, esp given the intraday trend is down. It's a weak diverg, but its there.
2:03pm
sds targets 40.69, 40.98, and now a chart pattern that points to 41.27. But each target must be hurdled and sustained of course. faz target 43.03.
1:29pm
intraday charts, amazingly, still say another push lower today...idk how far,,, but should go lower before any bounce on spx. i know its hard to believe, but thats what my signals are saying. spx last 1052.
1:01 PM
The break lower in spx happened as I anticipated. On this move to spx 1047.12, the bears just migh have averted the dreaded bullish divergence in price vs rsi, thought the macd hist shows some.
12:18
sds testing upper line in bull flag now...will prob retreat... chop for 15more min. sds last 4025
12:11
for sds, on the 5min sds a case can be made for a bull flag within the current prices, without moves loser than 40.10at current veloicty, it would call for a breakout higher in SDS (lower spx) at 12:37, but lunchtime can slow that
11:56
Now, spx heading down for test #2 of the spx 50MA
10:53
ES sliced through 1050, ignored it. SPX now at its 50MA support...very impt...at 1051ish. A break of this could cause momentum drop.
10:48
ES approaching the round # of 1050....see if it bounces or slices through.
10:46
Preparing to sell 20% part of faz from my cost at 21.53/63 at first sign of weakness here for a profit. last faz 22.02. Still looks higher, but will see.
10:39
Yesterday I identified the bullish divergences in SPX that pointed to a possible bounce. However, I also noted that the divergences appeared to be bahaving more like a COIL, which usually resolves in the direction of the trend, in this case, DOWN for spx. This is what is happening here. For swings, I still have NO BUY signal for spx, and I do not have a "cover shorts" (i.e. sell SDS FAZ) either.
This is why I decided to hold those swings last night, instead of taking profits on them.
My charts say 1055 was not the end of any wave. i don't do much ewave, so i'll leave that to u experts. all i know is my charts, at this minute,
10:34
It is very significant that XLF broke its daily 50 MA ON THE FIRST TRY and has STAYED UNDER IT for 1 day so far (2 if it stays under today). Now the SPX is approaching a test of its 50 MA at 1051. We must allow for the possibility that it too will break on the first try. Usually there is a bounce, so this could be significant. I will be watching this closely. I have CANCELLED my limit orders to sell the FAZ and SDS swings and will re-evaluate if/when SPX tests its 50 MA.
10:33AM
FAZ target 22.41.
10:19 AM
faz right now is pusshing up against the daily 50MA resistance. however, xlf already broke UNDER its 50MA daily 2 days ago...and stayed under. this is why i use the non-leveraged etfs like xlf to make decisinos on the leveraged ones like faz.. the non-lev give more accurate reads
9:39 AM
SPX did not technically have a gap up, but it did open above yesterday's close.
9:31 AM
Am in TNA at 40.71 long daytrade with tight stop. sold 50% of it at 41.17. Stop raised to breakeven at 40.71 for the rest.
9:17 AM
Thus far the ES has held 1057 as resistance since breaking below it. ES is now poised to test 1057 again, and things get interesting as volume increases. A sustained break over 1057 points to 1062 as the next target. There are mixed signals. Divergences suggest higher ES, but the 1057 must be hurdled. There is an RSI bull swing failure that says 1057 will break higher if it can stay over 1055.
6:11 AM
Thus far the ES overnight made a high of 1063 and a low of 1055. As I expected at midnight (12:31), they did decline to 1057. The 1057 did not hold and they broke under to 1055. This is an example of a break that has not been SUSTAINED, at least not yet. We will watch to see if the 1057 acts as resistance (formerly support) to sustain the break lower, or if the break under 10577 to 1055 is just marginal.
We will see if ES can hold 1055 or not, it is the breakout higher point from Wed 107/7, so it is significant. 1051 would be the next test lower if 1055 does not hold.
Scenarios: (will be updated later perhaps)
Bearish: As long as ES is under 1057 /1062 it is very bearish. It can bounce up to 1076ish and still be considered in a 60min down channel, although under I prefer it to stay under 1071 for bearishness.
12:31 AM
1. I expect ES to test 1057 in overnight trading. I expected this test to happen already, but it has not.
2. i expect a bounce, to
a lower high. right now i will be
selling the rallies short, the daily and
60min trend is down until broken
higher again
the spx has lower
highs, lower lows, so i wil be shorting
for swings. when it starts making
higher highs, higher lows then i will
swing to the long side.
the spx has lower
highs, lower lows, so i wil be shorting
for swings. when it starts making
higher highs, higher lows then i will
swing to the long side.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
1. SPX did put in a new low of 1042.19, right at my 1042 target. Went from 1052 at time of post to 1042. (2:21pm 2:06, post)
2. SDS hit the first two targets of 40.69, 40.98. The 41.04 High for today was close to 40.98, just 6 cents away.
3. The 12:37 expected breakout lower in spx did happen, about 10 minutes early.
4. Sold faz at 23.03, cost 21.53, a 7% profit in 8 hours. High was 23.09. Also sold some faz at lower price of 22.90 and 22.43.
5. Did a quick trade (10 minutes) at the open in TNA at 40.71 for 2.5% profit in 20 minutes. sold 50% of it at 41.17. Stopped out at breakeven at 40.71 for the rest. Although it looks like it was a good trade, it quickly turned against me, stopping me out. I fully intended to hold this much longer, but it hit 21.17 and started to weaken, so I sold it for profit and raised my stop, in case it went higher. It did not go higher, so the 2nd half was sold at breakeven (no profit). If a trade "does not behave", I like to exit instead of "hoping".
------------------------
70% confidence level for me that we break LOD in spx
2:06pm
On spx, there is now a micro bear divergence 15min charts that could push spx lower, esp given the intraday trend is down. It's a weak diverg, but its there.
2:03pm
sds targets 40.69, 40.98, and now a chart pattern that points to 41.27. But each target must be hurdled and sustained of course. faz target 43.03.
1:29pm
intraday charts, amazingly, still say another push lower today...idk how far,,, but should go lower before any bounce on spx. i know its hard to believe, but thats what my signals are saying. spx last 1052.
1:01 PM
The break lower in spx happened as I anticipated. On this move to spx 1047.12, the bears just migh have averted the dreaded bullish divergence in price vs rsi, thought the macd hist shows some.
12:18
sds testing upper line in bull flag now...will prob retreat... chop for 15more min. sds last 4025
12:11
for sds, on the 5min sds a case can be made for a bull flag within the current prices, without moves loser than 40.10at current veloicty, it would call for a breakout higher in SDS (lower spx) at 12:37, but lunchtime can slow that
11:56
Now, spx heading down for test #2 of the spx 50MA
10:53
ES sliced through 1050, ignored it. SPX now at its 50MA support...very impt...at 1051ish. A break of this could cause momentum drop.
10:48
ES approaching the round # of 1050....see if it bounces or slices through.
10:46
Preparing to sell 20% part of faz from my cost at 21.53/63 at first sign of weakness here for a profit. last faz 22.02. Still looks higher, but will see.
10:39
Yesterday I identified the bullish divergences in SPX that pointed to a possible bounce. However, I also noted that the divergences appeared to be bahaving more like a COIL, which usually resolves in the direction of the trend, in this case, DOWN for spx. This is what is happening here. For swings, I still have NO BUY signal for spx, and I do not have a "cover shorts" (i.e. sell SDS FAZ) either.
This is why I decided to hold those swings last night, instead of taking profits on them.
My charts say 1055 was not the end of any wave. i don't do much ewave, so i'll leave that to u experts. all i know is my charts, at this minute,
10:34
It is very significant that XLF broke its daily 50 MA ON THE FIRST TRY and has STAYED UNDER IT for 1 day so far (2 if it stays under today). Now the SPX is approaching a test of its 50 MA at 1051. We must allow for the possibility that it too will break on the first try. Usually there is a bounce, so this could be significant. I will be watching this closely. I have CANCELLED my limit orders to sell the FAZ and SDS swings and will re-evaluate if/when SPX tests its 50 MA.
10:33AM
FAZ target 22.41.
10:19 AM
faz right now is pusshing up against the daily 50MA resistance. however, xlf already broke UNDER its 50MA daily 2 days ago...and stayed under. this is why i use the non-leveraged etfs like xlf to make decisinos on the leveraged ones like faz.. the non-lev give more accurate reads
9:39 AM
SPX did not technically have a gap up, but it did open above yesterday's close.
9:31 AM
Am in TNA at 40.71 long daytrade with tight stop. sold 50% of it at 41.17. Stop raised to breakeven at 40.71 for the rest.
9:17 AM
Thus far the ES has held 1057 as resistance since breaking below it. ES is now poised to test 1057 again, and things get interesting as volume increases. A sustained break over 1057 points to 1062 as the next target. There are mixed signals. Divergences suggest higher ES, but the 1057 must be hurdled. There is an RSI bull swing failure that says 1057 will break higher if it can stay over 1055.
6:11 AM
Thus far the ES overnight made a high of 1063 and a low of 1055. As I expected at midnight (12:31), they did decline to 1057. The 1057 did not hold and they broke under to 1055. This is an example of a break that has not been SUSTAINED, at least not yet. We will watch to see if the 1057 acts as resistance (formerly support) to sustain the break lower, or if the break under 10577 to 1055 is just marginal.
We will see if ES can hold 1055 or not, it is the breakout higher point from Wed 107/7, so it is significant. 1051 would be the next test lower if 1055 does not hold.
Scenarios: (will be updated later perhaps)
Bearish: As long as ES is under 1057 /1062 it is very bearish. It can bounce up to 1076ish and still be considered in a 60min down channel, although under I prefer it to stay under 1071 for bearishness.
12:31 AM
1. I expect ES to test 1057 in overnight trading. I expected this test to happen already, but it has not.
2. i expect a bounce, to
a lower high. right now i will be
selling the rallies short, the daily and
60min trend is down until broken
higher again
the spx has lower
highs, lower lows, so i wil be shorting
for swings. when it starts making
higher highs, higher lows then i will
swing to the long side.
the spx has lower
highs, lower lows, so i wil be shorting
for swings. when it starts making
higher highs, higher lows then i will
swing to the long side.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
AAPL weakening - flashed short signal last thursday
i got a short signal on appl when it declined to 204.48 on thurs
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
daily ramblings
2:45pm
in next 1 hour, charts suggest one last push down in spx...see if we get it, and how much if any. that's provided that spx does not break over R. last spx 1065.
2:40pm
if spx closes with a candle that looks like the daily candle now, then it is likely to test 1077 tomorrow. trend still down on 60min but the pop up is likely. which makes for an interesting decision on what i want to do with my swing shorts.
2:36 pm
if the rsi 15min in faz begins to fail here, i will reduce my exposure in faz and sell some more, still at a profit. holding some more for a push higher. not likin the rsi unless it pushes higher...it is right at support now in rsi. faz continues to test and marginally violate its R line...no followthru but the up violations r there
2:32
there are bull divergences on the 15min spx, but they suggest to me a coil type behaviour, which usually resolves in the direction of the trend, in this case down.
2:29pm
1074 spx could come on a break over 1067
2:24 pm
spx continues to trade in the lower 1/3 of its downchannell, consistently touching my dtl support but not breaking it, on 60min chart. that's bearish.
2:05pm
faz limit filled at .43
1:57
if the faz bulls (spx bears) can push faz higher, then they can convert the bear rising faz wedge to an up channel
1:47
faz has danger of falling now due to dev of bearish rising wedge (higher spx) in 60min chart. but still holding since other indicators say another "push up".
1:35 pm
limit sell more faz raised to 21.43 from 21.37. holding some for 21.80
1:18pm
spx bounced EXACTLY of my lower support dtl in the spx down channel. it remains confined to the narrow, very bearish channel. however, at current velocity, spx will not make a new low today, it would close around 1062. but i expect velocity to increase as vol increases in the next 2.5 hours. i expect a test of the low, and possible break. bears will want to break it to 1056 and close around 1058.
1:11pm
limit sell more faz at 21.37. holding some for 21.80
1:09pm
sold some faz at 21.12. i expect higher but am compelled to sell the expected overshoot of my 21.03 target.
12:53
looking for 21.03 faz as next target for the .60 entry
12:46
The bears need to make a lower low for the day to avert the formation of a bullish divergence in spx. bulls want to defend the low of course. at this moment, charts suggest the low will break.
12:31
faz at 20.75....first target hit for scalp of .60
12:19
in faz scalp 20.60. mental stop around .47
12:04
still waiting to enter tbt, not yet. possible entry when the 15min and 60min tbt give me buy signals. tbt is to hold for weeks or months, not days.
12:02
spx is testing the narrow downchannel R right now. see if holds down or breaks. note that even a break above it will likely do a backtest down. spx last is 1069.98. this spx tight channel lower R line is holding amazingly well...i drew it at 10AM...THRU some prices not at exact highs....still under it now in spx. sometimes its better to draw trendlines THRU prices to get more touches...imho...(knowing some ppl will disagree with THAT lol)
11:58
small profit...not worth it...hedge served its purpose, chart weakening rite now, nearly just breakeven form 4309--4314. This was a breakout momentum trade, and I didn't get the breakout, so out I go before this turns to a loss.
11:43
in tna 43.09, for scalp trade.
11:36
the narrower down channel is still holding for now, mentioned below at 10:33. R is at 1070.68 spx and S is 1063.67. Resistance for the wider down channel is 1088.54, support is same at 1063.67
11:23 am
spx charts are a bit confusing here. 60min spx suggest higher spx but 15min suggests lower. this probably will result in more range trading, as the 2 charts fight agains each other.60min trend is still down, it's only suggesting a bounce, not massive move higher, at this point. also there is a bullish divergence in 60min suggesting bounce, but the 15min might hold it down.
11:15am
a break under 1067 should bring 1063 next in spx
10:58
faz buy signal here at 20.74
10:56
we have a daily doji candle now? why? because the bulls and bears are fighting. and because of the oversold conditions on the 15 and 60min charts. again, if the bulls can keep prices down while the oversold burns off, they remain in control. The bulls want to push prices higher from the oversold, not just consolodate.
10:46
as long as spx is under 1077 and preferred 1073, charts are still very bearish, with 1088 allowed. would be bearish to have spx 15min stoch at 88% and spx under 1073/1077....very bearish as long as the stoch is up there and prices dont go up much. last stoch 84. however, a pop up is usually associated with a stoch move above 80, before a decline, so a bounce here could happen.
10:35
Right now, faz is behaving with the stoch, per the 10:18 post below. Continuing to watch.
10:34
FAZ 3min is still bullish, showing no neg divergences.
10:33
On SPX 60min there is a clear down channel, with a smaller narrower downchannel inside it. If the narrower channel holds its R, that would be very bearish. Lower channel R now at 1071, upper at 1088.50 spx rite now. last spx is 1067.
10:27
FAZ has an ominous looking bearish shoot star 15min
10:18
Ok here's what i'm looking for to happen to keep bears in control. (FAZ and SDS are bearish plays).
The FAZ needs to stay over 20.50 while the 15min stoch needs to go lower to burn off some. As the 15min stoch goes lower, we want the FAZ not to decline too much. That will give FAZ (or sds) the momentum to make higher highs.
9:50
well ES hit 1058 fast, as noted at 8:31AM...actually hit 1057, and bounced from there. i guess some of that faz sold at es 1058, whatever price that was on faz
9:49
in faz 20.81
9:41
ES testing the 1064 now. SPX 1067.50
9:36 AM
SPX mini R is 1073. But the spx remains bearish as long as SPX < 1089.
9:32 AM
ES did not gap down. Watching the ES 1070 to see if it holds as R or breaks.
9:19 AM
Thus far, ES 1064 has held, declining to 1065 and bouncing up. The ES charts suggest a break of 1064, but since it is so close to 9:30AM, the SPX charts might take control.
8:31 AM
If ES breaks under 1064 it could see 1061 then 1058 quickly. Lets see what happens. This could happen before 9:30 AM market open, producing a gap down. The break of 1064 is likely if ES stays under 1068.
ES 1061 is important because it is a prior signif low from 10/13. And 1058/57 are lows from 10/8 and 10/9. I arrived at the 1061/1058 targets using 3 min and 15 min patterns, so here we see a 15 minute pattern that measures to targets very close to, or exactly the same as, prior signif lows.
In any case, 1061 and 1058 are key areas that the bulls must defend, and the bears must break. and 1070 is the important Resistance area for the next 2 hours.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
in next 1 hour, charts suggest one last push down in spx...see if we get it, and how much if any. that's provided that spx does not break over R. last spx 1065.
2:40pm
if spx closes with a candle that looks like the daily candle now, then it is likely to test 1077 tomorrow. trend still down on 60min but the pop up is likely. which makes for an interesting decision on what i want to do with my swing shorts.
2:36 pm
if the rsi 15min in faz begins to fail here, i will reduce my exposure in faz and sell some more, still at a profit. holding some more for a push higher. not likin the rsi unless it pushes higher...it is right at support now in rsi. faz continues to test and marginally violate its R line...no followthru but the up violations r there
2:32
there are bull divergences on the 15min spx, but they suggest to me a coil type behaviour, which usually resolves in the direction of the trend, in this case down.
2:29pm
1074 spx could come on a break over 1067
2:24 pm
spx continues to trade in the lower 1/3 of its downchannell, consistently touching my dtl support but not breaking it, on 60min chart. that's bearish.
2:05pm
faz limit filled at .43
1:57
if the faz bulls (spx bears) can push faz higher, then they can convert the bear rising faz wedge to an up channel
1:47
faz has danger of falling now due to dev of bearish rising wedge (higher spx) in 60min chart. but still holding since other indicators say another "push up".
1:35 pm
limit sell more faz raised to 21.43 from 21.37. holding some for 21.80
1:18pm
spx bounced EXACTLY of my lower support dtl in the spx down channel. it remains confined to the narrow, very bearish channel. however, at current velocity, spx will not make a new low today, it would close around 1062. but i expect velocity to increase as vol increases in the next 2.5 hours. i expect a test of the low, and possible break. bears will want to break it to 1056 and close around 1058.
1:11pm
limit sell more faz at 21.37. holding some for 21.80
1:09pm
sold some faz at 21.12. i expect higher but am compelled to sell the expected overshoot of my 21.03 target.
12:53
looking for 21.03 faz as next target for the .60 entry
12:46
The bears need to make a lower low for the day to avert the formation of a bullish divergence in spx. bulls want to defend the low of course. at this moment, charts suggest the low will break.
12:31
faz at 20.75....first target hit for scalp of .60
12:19
in faz scalp 20.60. mental stop around .47
12:04
still waiting to enter tbt, not yet. possible entry when the 15min and 60min tbt give me buy signals. tbt is to hold for weeks or months, not days.
12:02
spx is testing the narrow downchannel R right now. see if holds down or breaks. note that even a break above it will likely do a backtest down. spx last is 1069.98. this spx tight channel lower R line is holding amazingly well...i drew it at 10AM...THRU some prices not at exact highs....still under it now in spx. sometimes its better to draw trendlines THRU prices to get more touches...imho...(knowing some ppl will disagree with THAT lol)
11:58
small profit...not worth it...hedge served its purpose, chart weakening rite now, nearly just breakeven form 4309--4314. This was a breakout momentum trade, and I didn't get the breakout, so out I go before this turns to a loss.
11:43
in tna 43.09, for scalp trade.
11:36
the narrower down channel is still holding for now, mentioned below at 10:33. R is at 1070.68 spx and S is 1063.67. Resistance for the wider down channel is 1088.54, support is same at 1063.67
11:23 am
spx charts are a bit confusing here. 60min spx suggest higher spx but 15min suggests lower. this probably will result in more range trading, as the 2 charts fight agains each other.60min trend is still down, it's only suggesting a bounce, not massive move higher, at this point. also there is a bullish divergence in 60min suggesting bounce, but the 15min might hold it down.
11:15am
a break under 1067 should bring 1063 next in spx
10:58
faz buy signal here at 20.74
10:56
we have a daily doji candle now? why? because the bulls and bears are fighting. and because of the oversold conditions on the 15 and 60min charts. again, if the bulls can keep prices down while the oversold burns off, they remain in control. The bulls want to push prices higher from the oversold, not just consolodate.
10:46
as long as spx is under 1077 and preferred 1073, charts are still very bearish, with 1088 allowed. would be bearish to have spx 15min stoch at 88% and spx under 1073/1077....very bearish as long as the stoch is up there and prices dont go up much. last stoch 84. however, a pop up is usually associated with a stoch move above 80, before a decline, so a bounce here could happen.
10:35
Right now, faz is behaving with the stoch, per the 10:18 post below. Continuing to watch.
10:34
FAZ 3min is still bullish, showing no neg divergences.
10:33
On SPX 60min there is a clear down channel, with a smaller narrower downchannel inside it. If the narrower channel holds its R, that would be very bearish. Lower channel R now at 1071, upper at 1088.50 spx rite now. last spx is 1067.
10:27
FAZ has an ominous looking bearish shoot star 15min
10:18
Ok here's what i'm looking for to happen to keep bears in control. (FAZ and SDS are bearish plays).
The FAZ needs to stay over 20.50 while the 15min stoch needs to go lower to burn off some. As the 15min stoch goes lower, we want the FAZ not to decline too much. That will give FAZ (or sds) the momentum to make higher highs.
9:50
well ES hit 1058 fast, as noted at 8:31AM...actually hit 1057, and bounced from there. i guess some of that faz sold at es 1058, whatever price that was on faz
9:49
in faz 20.81
9:41
ES testing the 1064 now. SPX 1067.50
9:36 AM
SPX mini R is 1073. But the spx remains bearish as long as SPX < 1089.
9:32 AM
ES did not gap down. Watching the ES 1070 to see if it holds as R or breaks.
9:19 AM
Thus far, ES 1064 has held, declining to 1065 and bouncing up. The ES charts suggest a break of 1064, but since it is so close to 9:30AM, the SPX charts might take control.
8:31 AM
If ES breaks under 1064 it could see 1061 then 1058 quickly. Lets see what happens. This could happen before 9:30 AM market open, producing a gap down. The break of 1064 is likely if ES stays under 1068.
ES 1061 is important because it is a prior signif low from 10/13. And 1058/57 are lows from 10/8 and 10/9. I arrived at the 1061/1058 targets using 3 min and 15 min patterns, so here we see a 15 minute pattern that measures to targets very close to, or exactly the same as, prior signif lows.
In any case, 1061 and 1058 are key areas that the bulls must defend, and the bears must break. and 1070 is the important Resistance area for the next 2 hours.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, October 26, 2009
Weekly SPX is warning of declines
It's not confirmed yet, but the weekly spx is warning of lower spx prices. There is a price vs rsi divergence in the weekly chart, which is much stronger than a daily or hourly divergence. Last spx is 1069.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily ramblings
3:54
FAZ hit my 20.93 target and made 20.99 high, 6 cents higher. I still see 21.40 and 21.94 as next FAZ targets in days.
3:53 pm
the daily and 60min charts on spx say "bounce up, then down"... but i'm keeping my swing shorts overnight in case we gap down. the risk is low since the sds is already green.
3:21
sds next target 39.60. last 39.33
3:19pm
if bears can break todays low in spx and put in a lower low for day, their position for tomorrow is much more secure. they need another push to give a cushion to allow for declines as a result of poss neg divergences in 15min charts, and fact that they are far from the 15MA.
3:19
21.40 faz lim sell 100%
3:15pm
i am compelled to sell some faz here at .93. holding the rest for higher.
3:11pm
the sds uptrend support line is holding perfectly, implying higher sds and lower spx. however, the sds needs to watch out for poss bear neg divergence in 60min. also support line in 60min rsi for sds is holding.
3:09
cancelling faz limit to sell
2:58pm
15min spx is developoing a bull diverg, pointing to poss higher prices. but spx <1074 remains bearish tho
2:51pm
raising llimit to sell faz at .93 from .82 from .77 from .73
2:45 pm
raising llimit to sell faz to .82 from .77 from .73
2:30 pm
changing faz limit sell to 20.77 from .73
2:25pm
spx suggests 1048/52 if 1064 is broken lower and sustained.
2:17pm
lim sell 50% faz from .31 at .73....also have cheaper faz from 19.25 and 20.28 holding
2:09
faz needs .43. last is .34
2:08pm
faz .31 above market filled. in more faz at .31.
2:06pm
spx 1078 still poss on break > 1073. last spx 1071
2:00 PM
ABOVE the mkt...will add faz at faz 20.33, market order if faz goes up. last faz 20.19
1:50pm
faz first target is 20.48 on break of .27
1:46
spx 1076 possible if 1072 breeaks higher.
1:23pm
faz 3min chart points to .57, which is at or near the high, coincidentally (not).
1:08 pm
added some faz at .21 so cost is now .28
12:48
first target is .58 for the .34 daytrade. but faz must push the rsi and stoch higher in 15min chart or risk a neg bear divergence that will send prices lower.
12:47
I have a target FAZof 21.41 which is strangely between the 50% and 62% fibs of 21.03 and 21.88, IF the bull flag holds.
12:39 PM
OK FAZ rocketed up and I took partial profits at 20.50 from 19.25 for 6.5% in 4 hours.
10:47
the weekly chart suggests bullish exhaustion, right now, unless bulls make new highs. Bearish divergence in weekly.
10:42
on friday i mentioned that faz 1932 would become support...thus far it has held, with a break below it, but recovered
10:31
faz trg 1963 if .47 hurdled
9:31
In Faz 19.24
7:57 AM
A break under 1077 and or over 1083 are main numbers to watch for next 3 hours. ES did decline to 1078 as expected, and held 1077 to pivot up. Charts still suggest lower prices.
Scenarios:
Bullish: Break over ES 1080 for 1083, 85,87,90,94,99, with 1083, 1095, 1099 as the key numbers. Then 1103 up to 1120 if the 1099 breaks.
-----------------------------
7:28 AM
For today, long TZA or long FAZ look good when the markets are weak. Long QQQQ or QLD look good for any market strength or a bounce.
--------------------------------
7:03 AM
ES tested 1083
twice last night, and once on
Thursday. Each time 1083 R held
prices down. Charts suggests a
decline to 1073 if 1078 is broken. ES last is 1080.
then after 1073, es 1071 critical
test. Bulls will want to hold 1071,
bears will want to break it.
------------------------------------------------------------
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
FAZ hit my 20.93 target and made 20.99 high, 6 cents higher. I still see 21.40 and 21.94 as next FAZ targets in days.
3:53 pm
the daily and 60min charts on spx say "bounce up, then down"... but i'm keeping my swing shorts overnight in case we gap down. the risk is low since the sds is already green.
3:21
sds next target 39.60. last 39.33
3:19pm
if bears can break todays low in spx and put in a lower low for day, their position for tomorrow is much more secure. they need another push to give a cushion to allow for declines as a result of poss neg divergences in 15min charts, and fact that they are far from the 15MA.
3:19
21.40 faz lim sell 100%
3:15pm
i am compelled to sell some faz here at .93. holding the rest for higher.
3:11pm
the sds uptrend support line is holding perfectly, implying higher sds and lower spx. however, the sds needs to watch out for poss bear neg divergence in 60min. also support line in 60min rsi for sds is holding.
3:09
cancelling faz limit to sell
2:58pm
15min spx is developoing a bull diverg, pointing to poss higher prices. but spx <1074 remains bearish tho
2:51pm
raising llimit to sell faz at .93 from .82 from .77 from .73
2:45 pm
raising llimit to sell faz to .82 from .77 from .73
2:30 pm
changing faz limit sell to 20.77 from .73
2:25pm
spx suggests 1048/52 if 1064 is broken lower and sustained.
2:17pm
lim sell 50% faz from .31 at .73....also have cheaper faz from 19.25 and 20.28 holding
2:09
faz needs .43. last is .34
2:08pm
faz .31 above market filled. in more faz at .31.
2:06pm
spx 1078 still poss on break > 1073. last spx 1071
2:00 PM
ABOVE the mkt...will add faz at faz 20.33, market order if faz goes up. last faz 20.19
1:50pm
faz first target is 20.48 on break of .27
1:46
spx 1076 possible if 1072 breeaks higher.
1:23pm
faz 3min chart points to .57, which is at or near the high, coincidentally (not).
1:08 pm
added some faz at .21 so cost is now .28
12:48
first target is .58 for the .34 daytrade. but faz must push the rsi and stoch higher in 15min chart or risk a neg bear divergence that will send prices lower.
12:47
I have a target FAZof 21.41 which is strangely between the 50% and 62% fibs of 21.03 and 21.88, IF the bull flag holds.
12:39 PM
OK FAZ rocketed up and I took partial profits at 20.50 from 19.25 for 6.5% in 4 hours.
10:47
the weekly chart suggests bullish exhaustion, right now, unless bulls make new highs. Bearish divergence in weekly.
10:42
on friday i mentioned that faz 1932 would become support...thus far it has held, with a break below it, but recovered
10:31
faz trg 1963 if .47 hurdled
9:31
In Faz 19.24
7:57 AM
A break under 1077 and or over 1083 are main numbers to watch for next 3 hours. ES did decline to 1078 as expected, and held 1077 to pivot up. Charts still suggest lower prices.
Scenarios:
Bearish 1: ES breaks and sustains under 1077 on the way to 1073, 1072, 1068, 1063, 1058.
Bullish: Break over ES 1080 for 1083, 85,87,90,94,99, with 1083, 1095, 1099 as the key numbers. Then 1103 up to 1120 if the 1099 breaks.
-----------------------------
7:28 AM
For today, long TZA or long FAZ look good when the markets are weak. Long QQQQ or QLD look good for any market strength or a bounce.
--------------------------------
7:03 AM
ES tested 1083
twice last night, and once on
Thursday. Each time 1083 R held
prices down. Charts suggests a
decline to 1073 if 1078 is broken. ES last is 1080.
then after 1073, es 1071 critical
test. Bulls will want to hold 1071,
bears will want to break it.
------------------------------------------------------------
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, October 23, 2009
In FAZ 18.60 again. Sold at 19.63 (5.5% profit) and 19.44
4:07 pm
Summary: FAZ hit my first target of 19.63, making a high 5 cents higher at 19.68. It did not reach the second target of 19.99 but rather backed down.
Made 5.5% on the 19.63 target, less on the 19.41 portion I sold.
3:42
grrr its declining now. I'll have to close this out and settle for 19.41 on the last 20%
3:31 PM
Limit filled at 19.63. Target hit. Sold all except will keep 20% for the close with 19.99 target.
2:01 PM
I am compelled to sell some FAZ at 19.44 here. It backed off 19.52.
1:13 PM
FAZ target is 19.63. Limit sell at 19.63.
9:53
I'm trying FAZ again at 18.60.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Summary: FAZ hit my first target of 19.63, making a high 5 cents higher at 19.68. It did not reach the second target of 19.99 but rather backed down.
Made 5.5% on the 19.63 target, less on the 19.41 portion I sold.
3:42
grrr its declining now. I'll have to close this out and settle for 19.41 on the last 20%
3:31 PM
Limit filled at 19.63. Target hit. Sold all except will keep 20% for the close with 19.99 target.
2:01 PM
I am compelled to sell some FAZ at 19.44 here. It backed off 19.52.
1:13 PM
FAZ target is 19.63. Limit sell at 19.63.
9:53
I'm trying FAZ again at 18.60.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily ramblings
11:55
[10:55:46] Chris: its true bears have been burned and that must be respected. however, from a purley tech perspective, there i no long signal.
11:00
sell faz 19.17 lim if filled. from 18.82. still holding the faz from 18.60.
1054
charts suggest that ES 1082 will break lower
1043
more faz 1882 stop .74 low risk
1034
sold faz at market (scalp piece only from .74) at .91
1031
faz .86lim cancelled. will sell manually for more maybe.
1028
more faz here at .72 for quick scalp. in next 8 minutes or i'm out of that piece likely
1024
faz triple bull divergence in 3min charts suggests higher prices in faz. last 18.66
1019am
faz hourly stoch <20 but rsi at 40 and trying to curl up---good sign for faz
10:13
compelled to sell 10% of my faz at .86 limit if filled
10:11
FAZ over .72 should get .86
10:09
ES next target down 1081....that one really needs to hold for the bulls. Bears want it to break.
10:04 AM
Bulls want to hold spx 1088. last 1090.
10:03 AM
SPX just made a big bearish shooting star candle in 3minute chart
8:48 AM
ES futures traded overnight from 1090.5 to 1095, last is 1094. See if it re-tests the 1099.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
[10:55:46] Chris: its true bears have been burned and that must be respected. however, from a purley tech perspective, there i no long signal.
11:00
sell faz 19.17 lim if filled. from 18.82. still holding the faz from 18.60.
1054
charts suggest that ES 1082 will break lower
1043
more faz 1882 stop .74 low risk
1034
sold faz at market (scalp piece only from .74) at .91
1031
faz .86lim cancelled. will sell manually for more maybe.
1028
more faz here at .72 for quick scalp. in next 8 minutes or i'm out of that piece likely
1024
faz triple bull divergence in 3min charts suggests higher prices in faz. last 18.66
1019am
faz hourly stoch <20 but rsi at 40 and trying to curl up---good sign for faz
10:13
compelled to sell 10% of my faz at .86 limit if filled
10:11
FAZ over .72 should get .86
10:09
ES next target down 1081....that one really needs to hold for the bulls. Bears want it to break.
10:04 AM
Bulls want to hold spx 1088. last 1090.
10:03 AM
SPX just made a big bearish shooting star candle in 3minute chart
8:48 AM
ES futures traded overnight from 1090.5 to 1095, last is 1094. See if it re-tests the 1099.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, October 22, 2009
SPX closed at 1093, one point from my daily line in the sand.
WOW, the the SPX closed right at 1093, just one point from my daily "line in the sand" for bullish vs. bearish.
Earlier today (see daily ramblings post below) I wrote that "I remain bearish as long as ES is less than 1092 today". The SPX closed right near that level at 1093, so I'll wait until tomorrow to see how things develop. Today's action looked bullish, it was bullish, but the SPX still has a lower high in place. Tomorrow that might change.
There are still lots of bearish signals (the same ones mentioned in earlier posts below), but price, support, and resistance rule.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Earlier today (see daily ramblings post below) I wrote that "I remain bearish as long as ES is less than 1092 today". The SPX closed right near that level at 1093, so I'll wait until tomorrow to see how things develop. Today's action looked bullish, it was bullish, but the SPX still has a lower high in place. Tomorrow that might change.
There are still lots of bearish signals (the same ones mentioned in earlier posts below), but price, support, and resistance rule.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
More sds, new entry possible 38.13
i have an early short
signal right now....but it's
early...could see spx make one more
bounce up, then i expect down
sds 38.13 could work nicely ,,, for swing hold for days.
sds support around 37.73 +/- .10
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
signal right now....but it's
early...could see spx make one more
bounce up, then i expect down
sds 38.13 could work nicely ,,, for swing hold for days.
sds support around 37.73 +/- .10
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SDS targets
Some SDS targets to take profits at are 38.40, 38.61, 38.73, 39.21, 39.50, 39.42, 39.73, 41.68, 43.26.
I like 39.73 to start with, for now.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
I like 39.73 to start with, for now.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES scenarios for today
See the "daily ramblings" post for today for details.
Until either one is broken, the important pivots to watch are 1077 and 1082.
Bullish: Break over ES 1078 for 1081, 85,87,90,94,99, with 1081, 1091, 1099 as the key numbers. Then 1103 up to 1120 if the 1099 breaks.
Bearish 1: ES stays under 1081 for 1076, 1072, 1068, 1063, 1058.
Bearish 2: ES pivots higher up to 1092 (or any lower #), then 1092 holds as resistance and Bearish 1 unfolds.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily ramblings
12:45 PM
faz survived exactly right at the .63 support level i mentioned...first daily target is still 19.97/20.03, then 10.23 if it can get over the 19.86.
the last 2 hourly spx candles suggest tiredness from the bounce, not tired from the move down...the dojis came AFTER a green up candle, not after a red one
nevertheless the
15min chart warns of possible upside
break of 1084 is possible....that could
propel to 1092/94. but until the bulls
do something, i remain bearish for
the coming hours / days
the 15min is
putting in a lower peak on the second
high on hist....no worries for the
bears yet...until the bulls break over
the R levels, bears are in control
9:18 AM
For SPX (not ES) spx 1072 is key area for bulls to hold. Then 1066 and 1040. The uptrend continues even if SPX gets to 1040 but holds 1040.
8:59
the 15min ES did have a bullish divergence with the 2nd low at 1072, but it was slight, and we might have already seen it manifested with the spike to 1080.50 being the end of that divergence. still expecting the 8:56AM and 8:38 bearish scenarios right now.
8:56AM
charts right now point to a break of that 1072 to 1070/69 if bulls don't do something here soon.
8:38 AM
Bullish: Break over ES 1078 for 1081, 85,87,90,94,99, with 1081, 1091, 1099 as the key numbers. Then 1103 up to 1120 if the 1099 breaks.
Bearish 1: ES stays under 1081 for 1076, 1072, 1068, 1063, 1058.
Bearish 2: ES pivots higher up to 1092 (or any lower #), then 1092 holds as resistance and Bearish 1 unfolds.
8:35 AM
For the day, I remain bearish as long as ES is less than 1092 today. I'll allow up to 1092 for bearish scenarios that point to a pivot lower. Over 1092 and 1094, 96,99 would be bullish targets.
8:33AM
ES did break over 1079 just now and puled back at 1080.50, just 1/2 pts from my first target. meaning the 1079/81 R is holding it down. Also the 1080.50 held with a shooting star, which is bearish.
8:23AM
ES made a low last night of 1072 and is now at 1079.
ES is testing 1079 right now. If it breaks over it, then 1081 then 1086 are targets. the ES low last night was 1072, it's possible to see that level re-tested also today if prices pivot lower.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
faz survived exactly right at the .63 support level i mentioned...first daily target is still 19.97/20.03, then 10.23 if it can get over the 19.86.
the last 2 hourly spx candles suggest tiredness from the bounce, not tired from the move down...the dojis came AFTER a green up candle, not after a red one
nevertheless the
15min chart warns of possible upside
break of 1084 is possible....that could
propel to 1092/94. but until the bulls
do something, i remain bearish for
the coming hours / days
the 15min is
putting in a lower peak on the second
high on hist....no worries for the
bears yet...until the bulls break over
the R levels, bears are in control
9:18 AM
For SPX (not ES) spx 1072 is key area for bulls to hold. Then 1066 and 1040. The uptrend continues even if SPX gets to 1040 but holds 1040.
8:59
the 15min ES did have a bullish divergence with the 2nd low at 1072, but it was slight, and we might have already seen it manifested with the spike to 1080.50 being the end of that divergence. still expecting the 8:56AM and 8:38 bearish scenarios right now.
8:56AM
charts right now point to a break of that 1072 to 1070/69 if bulls don't do something here soon.
8:38 AM
Bullish: Break over ES 1078 for 1081, 85,87,90,94,99, with 1081, 1091, 1099 as the key numbers. Then 1103 up to 1120 if the 1099 breaks.
Bearish 1: ES stays under 1081 for 1076, 1072, 1068, 1063, 1058.
Bearish 2: ES pivots higher up to 1092 (or any lower #), then 1092 holds as resistance and Bearish 1 unfolds.
8:35 AM
For the day, I remain bearish as long as ES is less than 1092 today. I'll allow up to 1092 for bearish scenarios that point to a pivot lower. Over 1092 and 1094, 96,99 would be bullish targets.
8:33AM
ES did break over 1079 just now and puled back at 1080.50, just 1/2 pts from my first target. meaning the 1079/81 R is holding it down. Also the 1080.50 held with a shooting star, which is bearish.
8:23AM
ES made a low last night of 1072 and is now at 1079.
ES is testing 1079 right now. If it breaks over it, then 1081 then 1086 are targets. the ES low last night was 1072, it's possible to see that level re-tested also today if prices pivot lower.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Quick outlook - I continue bearish for coming hours/days
A few days ago, I began giving many reasons why I expected a decline in SPX and QQQQ, and today the markets moved lower. I expect further lower prices, unless the SPX can break out above resistance. I also expected the financials to get a bounce today and then weaken, which is exactly what happened, allowing me to get into FAZ at a great price near the day's low, selling it close the day's high for 8% profit (see post below).
I expect SPX to reach around 1060 if it can break 1078/72, which I expect it will. I will update the target more precisely later. I'm positioned for this via SDS as a swing trade (others might like SPXU which is 3x bearish, or SH which is 1x bearish).
Why is the outlook bearish? Because:
The QQQQ have a bearish gravestone daily candle.
SPX has a bearish red candle with a topping tail.
There are bearish divergences all over the daily, 60min, and 15min charts (divergence between price and one or more of the following: rsi, stoch, macd, macd hist. Divergence means the prices in SPX made new highs recently, but the other indicator (like rsi) made lower highs. So the slope of the prices is UP but the slope of the rsi, macd, stoch is down, creating the divergence.
The VIX made a big green candle at end of today.
I don't have charts to post now, maybe I'll add them later here.
Of course, the bulls can reverse this negative situation by first holding support (which I expect to be tested tomorrow) and then pivoting upward. Again, the stoch and rsi need to move higher, as mentioned in daily ramblings post below. However, until they reverse it, the charts are bearish short term now.
Further, this does not mean that SPX will not make higher highs later. It simply means that for the coming hours/days, SPX is expected to decline. Depending on the bull/bear reaction after that, SPX can continue downward, or reverse up for new highs. We'll take a look at that if/when SPX gets to 1060.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
I expect SPX to reach around 1060 if it can break 1078/72, which I expect it will. I will update the target more precisely later. I'm positioned for this via SDS as a swing trade (others might like SPXU which is 3x bearish, or SH which is 1x bearish).
Why is the outlook bearish? Because:
The QQQQ have a bearish gravestone daily candle.
SPX has a bearish red candle with a topping tail.
There are bearish divergences all over the daily, 60min, and 15min charts (divergence between price and one or more of the following: rsi, stoch, macd, macd hist. Divergence means the prices in SPX made new highs recently, but the other indicator (like rsi) made lower highs. So the slope of the prices is UP but the slope of the rsi, macd, stoch is down, creating the divergence.
The VIX made a big green candle at end of today.
I don't have charts to post now, maybe I'll add them later here.
Of course, the bulls can reverse this negative situation by first holding support (which I expect to be tested tomorrow) and then pivoting upward. Again, the stoch and rsi need to move higher, as mentioned in daily ramblings post below. However, until they reverse it, the charts are bearish short term now.
Further, this does not mean that SPX will not make higher highs later. It simply means that for the coming hours/days, SPX is expected to decline. Depending on the bull/bear reaction after that, SPX can continue downward, or reverse up for new highs. We'll take a look at that if/when SPX gets to 1060.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
In FAZ 18.62, sold at 20.17, for 8.3% profit, one day
4:05 PM
Exited FAZ at 20.17 for 8.3% profit, one day.
10:11 AM
In FAZ 18.62. Stop around 18.37 but might raise it to 18.47 or lower it to 18.14 later. Will monitor charts to decide. May exit early with a loss if needed.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Exited FAZ at 20.17 for 8.3% profit, one day.
10:11 AM
In FAZ 18.62. Stop around 18.37 but might raise it to 18.47 or lower it to 18.14 later. Will monitor charts to decide. May exit early with a loss if needed.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily ramblings
3:09 PM
If SPX does not go higher today, we may be seeing the development of the less common bearish triple top pattern. Bulls need preferably a higher high,, at least the 60min stoch must get over 80/82 or the rsi > 70/72. yes the bulls want the stoch overbought--that would push prices higher before they decline.
2:12 PM
hmmm new chart pattern of the day ....spx bear rising wedge intraday, suggests possible lower spx despite this pop up after the beige book results. last spx 1098.50. If 1096 breaks lower, should see 1092 test. 1092 needs to hold for bulls.
1:07 PM
SPX earlier developed a 15min down channel. It has now broken above the R line for the down channel, suggesting higher prices. It broke it, and is now backtesting it. BUT, other indicators suggest lower. So we need to wait, and use the price pivots, which will determine direction. There is also an upchannel in SPY which suggests 110.72 target today.
12:21
As expected, SPX did decline, so far to 1095. The charts still say lower SPX, BUT BUT the 1095 spx is critical to break lower. It can pivot up off the 1095 for a run at the highs.
11:47
Charts suggest either lower prices in SPX, or sideways trading for the next 1-2 hours, unless bulls can get spx over 1099, which they certainly can. Nevertheless, charts suggest lower or sideways. last spx 1098
11:31am
possible bear HS in spx that points lower to 1093 spx. last is 1098.
11:28
the daily candles in spx this week look similar to the pattern from 8/24---8/28, which resulted in a decline in SPX. It will be interesting to see if the bulls can push up to 1120 this time.
11:25 AM
15min and 60min charts of spy warns of possible dbl top...there is 15min divergence on the macd hist of the 2 highs.
10:38 AM
remember that ES has a higher high than spx....so the 1100 spx could pop to at least test the ES high. ES high 1099. that would be 1103 spx. It is poised for a possible break higher now to test that.
10:33 AM
Thus far, resistance in SPX has held it down, barely. Financials are weaker (XLF) than SPX. watching the spx 15min for bearish mMm...one forming now but its early premature, needs followthrough.
9:56 AM
SDS declined to 37.18. It is now backtesting the downtrend channel line that it broke ABOVE yesterday. If it holds near here, we could see higher SDS (lower SPX).
9:38 AM
ES broke 1087 and now testing 1091. See if it holds down or breaks higher.
--------------
9:08 AM premarket
ES hit low of 1080.75 this morn and bounced up to 1085...thus far 1080 held. The overnight high was 1091.50.
Right now, 1087 is the pivot number: above it bullish, below it, bearish.
For the next 2 hours, the SPX charts suggest a possible bounce up, but the ES charts are neutral and could go either way. The 1081, 1087 and 1091 should be key in the next 2 hours, with 1087 the immediate focus. There is a downward bias in the ES charts, but that is dependent on ES staying under 1087/91, and the opening bell could quickly change that. So the SPX and ES are throwing conflicting signals.
Scenarios:
Bullish: Right now, the bulls need to hurdle over 1087, then 1091, 1099.
Bearish: Bears want ES < 1087 for 1081, 1076.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
If SPX does not go higher today, we may be seeing the development of the less common bearish triple top pattern. Bulls need preferably a higher high,, at least the 60min stoch must get over 80/82 or the rsi > 70/72. yes the bulls want the stoch overbought--that would push prices higher before they decline.
2:12 PM
hmmm new chart pattern of the day ....spx bear rising wedge intraday, suggests possible lower spx despite this pop up after the beige book results. last spx 1098.50. If 1096 breaks lower, should see 1092 test. 1092 needs to hold for bulls.
1:07 PM
SPX earlier developed a 15min down channel. It has now broken above the R line for the down channel, suggesting higher prices. It broke it, and is now backtesting it. BUT, other indicators suggest lower. So we need to wait, and use the price pivots, which will determine direction. There is also an upchannel in SPY which suggests 110.72 target today.
12:21
As expected, SPX did decline, so far to 1095. The charts still say lower SPX, BUT BUT the 1095 spx is critical to break lower. It can pivot up off the 1095 for a run at the highs.
11:47
Charts suggest either lower prices in SPX, or sideways trading for the next 1-2 hours, unless bulls can get spx over 1099, which they certainly can. Nevertheless, charts suggest lower or sideways. last spx 1098
11:31am
possible bear HS in spx that points lower to 1093 spx. last is 1098.
11:28
the daily candles in spx this week look similar to the pattern from 8/24---8/28, which resulted in a decline in SPX. It will be interesting to see if the bulls can push up to 1120 this time.
11:25 AM
15min and 60min charts of spy warns of possible dbl top...there is 15min divergence on the macd hist of the 2 highs.
10:38 AM
remember that ES has a higher high than spx....so the 1100 spx could pop to at least test the ES high. ES high 1099. that would be 1103 spx. It is poised for a possible break higher now to test that.
10:33 AM
Thus far, resistance in SPX has held it down, barely. Financials are weaker (XLF) than SPX. watching the spx 15min for bearish mMm...one forming now but its early premature, needs followthrough.
9:56 AM
SDS declined to 37.18. It is now backtesting the downtrend channel line that it broke ABOVE yesterday. If it holds near here, we could see higher SDS (lower SPX).
9:38 AM
ES broke 1087 and now testing 1091. See if it holds down or breaks higher.
--------------
9:08 AM premarket
ES hit low of 1080.75 this morn and bounced up to 1085...thus far 1080 held. The overnight high was 1091.50.
Right now, 1087 is the pivot number: above it bullish, below it, bearish.
For the next 2 hours, the SPX charts suggest a possible bounce up, but the ES charts are neutral and could go either way. The 1081, 1087 and 1091 should be key in the next 2 hours, with 1087 the immediate focus. There is a downward bias in the ES charts, but that is dependent on ES staying under 1087/91, and the opening bell could quickly change that. So the SPX and ES are throwing conflicting signals.
Scenarios:
Bullish: Right now, the bulls need to hurdle over 1087, then 1091, 1099.
Bearish: Bears want ES < 1087 for 1081, 1076.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
FAZ tomorrow (Wednesday)?
The financials are weak. I'm considering the bearish financial 3x via FAZ. I'll look tomorrow for a possible entry there. Charts suggest perhaps a bounce up in XLF tomorrow (down FAZ) that might present an opportunity to enter.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily ramblings
1:42PM
SPX 1081 is a target if 1085 breaks lower. last is 1089 spx
12:49
my charts show mixed signals, more bearish ones,,, it "seems like" they will pump it up, but the charts say otherwise. they suggest a move to 1092.50 spx at most, and then lower
12:40
if spx <1086 downside momo could pick up. Last SPX is 1087.
12:39
SPX continues the slow deline, as expected, hugging its downtrend support line
12:29
vix still not a threat to bulls...but is throwing a warning... the gap up found gap support and has reversed up. also, the vix has broken out of ts downtrend intraday and is now warning of poss breakout higher. Last VIX is 21.47
11:51
ES stalled at 1083 as expected. Impt. support there. Charts say it will break lower, but the bulls might hold it anyway. Support and resistance always over rule, so lets see if the 1083 ES holds or breaks. It could take 3 tries to break ES 1083, it is breakout support as well as prior low support.
11:47
ES declined as expected to the downside at 1083. My SPXU (3x ultrahort spx) is doing nicely, took some profits on it, holding the rest for more.
11:29
ES testing support at 1089 again. charts suggest it will break lower, tho it has held thus far.
10:49
SPX is now just under its support line again (bearish).
10:38
what just happened? the SPX broke through its 15minute uptrend slightly, and is now back testing it. if it can climb above it, then higher spx. its testing it now...if it doesnt crawl above it and susatain, then the low will break. I also show the spx pushing up against an intraday R line (the sharp one). there is another intraday R higher up.
right now, spx is in limbo betwen the uptredn line and R line down
10:33
es fell short of the 1091 target at 1090.50 and bounced down as expected. The 1091 held as expected, so far. bulls want to hurdle that. bears want < 1095
10:24
the previous bounce from 1088 stopped right at my 1093 target, with no overshoot to 1095. Now lets see if ES can hurdle 1091.
10:18
the charts suggest a resolution up or down around 11:11 AM at current velocity. bias is down. looking for downside breakout then.
right now.10:07
ES just hit 1093 and backed down. see if it hurldes it or not.
10:04
Bulls want ES over 1095. Failure to hurdle 1093 likely will result in a break under 1088 for lower ES prices.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPX 1081 is a target if 1085 breaks lower. last is 1089 spx
12:49
my charts show mixed signals, more bearish ones,,, it "seems like" they will pump it up, but the charts say otherwise. they suggest a move to 1092.50 spx at most, and then lower
12:40
if spx <1086 downside momo could pick up. Last SPX is 1087.
12:39
SPX continues the slow deline, as expected, hugging its downtrend support line
12:29
vix still not a threat to bulls...but is throwing a warning... the gap up found gap support and has reversed up. also, the vix has broken out of ts downtrend intraday and is now warning of poss breakout higher. Last VIX is 21.47
11:51
ES stalled at 1083 as expected. Impt. support there. Charts say it will break lower, but the bulls might hold it anyway. Support and resistance always over rule, so lets see if the 1083 ES holds or breaks. It could take 3 tries to break ES 1083, it is breakout support as well as prior low support.
11:47
ES declined as expected to the downside at 1083. My SPXU (3x ultrahort spx) is doing nicely, took some profits on it, holding the rest for more.
11:29
ES testing support at 1089 again. charts suggest it will break lower, tho it has held thus far.
10:49
SPX is now just under its support line again (bearish).
10:38
what just happened? the SPX broke through its 15minute uptrend slightly, and is now back testing it. if it can climb above it, then higher spx. its testing it now...if it doesnt crawl above it and susatain, then the low will break. I also show the spx pushing up against an intraday R line (the sharp one). there is another intraday R higher up.
right now, spx is in limbo betwen the uptredn line and R line down
10:33
es fell short of the 1091 target at 1090.50 and bounced down as expected. The 1091 held as expected, so far. bulls want to hurdle that. bears want < 1095
10:24
the previous bounce from 1088 stopped right at my 1093 target, with no overshoot to 1095. Now lets see if ES can hurdle 1091.
10:18
the charts suggest a resolution up or down around 11:11 AM at current velocity. bias is down. looking for downside breakout then.
right now.10:07
ES just hit 1093 and backed down. see if it hurldes it or not.
10:04
Bulls want ES over 1095. Failure to hurdle 1093 likely will result in a break under 1088 for lower ES prices.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, October 19, 2009
in SPXU 40.81, stop above spx new high
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, October 16, 2009
Daily ramblings
2:37 PM
INTRADAY only:
small coil in sds suggests upward breakout (small) in sds 3790 then 3781 then pivot higher off 3781 areound 14:59 pm. but its tough to accept because of dow 10k factor
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* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
INTRADAY only:
small coil in sds suggests upward breakout (small) in sds 3790 then 3781 then pivot higher off 3781 areound 14:59 pm. but its tough to accept because of dow 10k factor
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* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Watching for possible bearish reversal candles in SPX
It's still 3 hours before market opens at 9:30 AM, but IF the SPX gaps DOWN, look for a bearish evening star that will be formed if SPX CLOSES today less than 1068ish.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES futures continue
See updates in post below "ES futures..."
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPX bearish descending triangle, similar to ascending in last move up
SPX bearish descending triangle, similar to ascending in last move up.
See notes in chart.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
See notes in chart.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, October 12, 2009
SPX expectation for Tuesday
What will SPX do tomorrow? I don't have a clear answer here. It comes down to support and resistance, as always. If resistance holds, then prices will move lower. If the bulls can break over resistance, then aggressive increases can occur as noted in the post below. The ES futures and European markets could change all of this, and help provide more insight in the coming 8 hours.
Right now, I'm inclined to think that prices will move lower tomorrow.
I'm using SPY for the attached chart because SPX had data errors today. SPY will show the chart patterns as SPX.
The chart below shows a bearish triple divergence in MACD, which suggests that a pullback should occur, and possibly even a double top. However, the RSI shows no such divergence but rather supports the upward price movement. Further, the RSI and Stoch have started to turn up. So there are both bearish and bullish interpretations. (One can argue that the Stochastics also show a triple bearish divergence, since the stoch looks to have made a triple top while the prices moved higher. However, personally I'm rejecting this notion because the stochastics don't really have that much room "up there", yet plenty of room lower. Thus, for me, the stochastics is not useful for divergence readings this time).
Why is this? Well, also notice that the prices right now are caught right between the 2 moving averages (5MA and 15MA) on the 60 min chart. Also notice how the 5MA bounce UP off the 15MA twice alreaad, propelling prices higher. So, Monday ended with prices in between these levels, and time will tell if the SPX (1) simply made a test of the 15MA and will bounce to continue higher, or (2) that the break of support today (when ES broke 1073) was the start of a larger pullback that will move below the 15MA.
In the chart below, I have removed a lot of my trendlines and other drawings, to make it easier to read. Will possibly post the other chart with more details later.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Right now, I'm inclined to think that prices will move lower tomorrow.
I'm using SPY for the attached chart because SPX had data errors today. SPY will show the chart patterns as SPX.
The chart below shows a bearish triple divergence in MACD, which suggests that a pullback should occur, and possibly even a double top. However, the RSI shows no such divergence but rather supports the upward price movement. Further, the RSI and Stoch have started to turn up. So there are both bearish and bullish interpretations. (One can argue that the Stochastics also show a triple bearish divergence, since the stoch looks to have made a triple top while the prices moved higher. However, personally I'm rejecting this notion because the stochastics don't really have that much room "up there", yet plenty of room lower. Thus, for me, the stochastics is not useful for divergence readings this time).
Why is this? Well, also notice that the prices right now are caught right between the 2 moving averages (5MA and 15MA) on the 60 min chart. Also notice how the 5MA bounce UP off the 15MA twice alreaad, propelling prices higher. So, Monday ended with prices in between these levels, and time will tell if the SPX (1) simply made a test of the 15MA and will bounce to continue higher, or (2) that the break of support today (when ES broke 1073) was the start of a larger pullback that will move below the 15MA.
In the chart below, I have removed a lot of my trendlines and other drawings, to make it easier to read. Will possibly post the other chart with more details later.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES futures updates....
Perhaps later I will post some charts and more details and scenarios. This is what I see right now.
Tuesday 6:13 AM EST
Monday 8:02 PM EST
Watching 1073, then 1077 or 1068.
Right now, the 60min ES is coiling (sym triangle) and the bias is currently down. Now usually these coils resolve in the direction of the trend (in this case UP), but other indicators suggest a downward bias, for now at least, until 1073 is hurdled.
I think it is significant that the ES futures are still trading under 1073, since 1073 was support all day during the daytime session, until it was broken late in the day with a decline to 1068. Now, we will see if the previous 1073 support becomes resistance; as I write this, 1073 is the new resistance before 1077, since it has held as R thus far.
Until the European markets open, I see 1077, 1073 and 1068 as the key numbers to watch. If the bulls do not hurdle 1073, then the risk of a decline to the numbers below is probable. However, let's remember that ES can decline to 1056 and STILL maintain it's bullish profile.
Key ES numbers:
1077: Primary short term resistance. Look to see if this holds prices down, or if it breaks higher. Right now, the charts suggest no higher break. It is also the previous MAJOR high. A sustained break over this could propel ES to 1103/1120 (with ups and downs along the way)
1073: Monday's support for the day.
1068: Monday's low of the day. Also prior significant high.
1056: Watch to see if this holds prices up or breaks lower. The 1056 is also close to a prior signif high as well as the breakout higher level.
1046: Prior significant low. The bulls need to defend this to prevent 1020.
1037: Support from prior high, shelf breakout support.
1026
1021
1012: Recent MAJOR low. If this breaks lower and sustains, I'd expect fireworks.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday 6:13 AM EST
Another near perfect touch of the target. ES did the bounce from 1068 and hit 1072.50, a near perfect crawl to 1073 target, and then went back up to 1071 (last price). 1073 HELD AS RESISTANCE. AGAIN THIS IS SIGNIFICANT, as mentioned in Monday 8:02 PM below. For the next 10 hours, as long as 1073 holds, the ES is BEARISH.
ES is currently on the way to testing 1073 again now, with 1072 still minor R. If 1072 holds, then expect another move to 1068 and an eventual break lower. Further, ES is now in a down channel (slight) but that can easily be reversed upon market open at 9:30 AM. However, until it is broken, the bias is down.
Monday 11:51 PM EST
Well ES continues to behave. It went to 1068.50, just 1/2 point from the 1068 target. Then it bounced up. Now, watching the 1073 (tho there is newly defined micro-R at 1072.25). If 1073 breaks higher, expect 1077 and then higher (i don't think that will happen, but it's the scenario). If 1073 holds as R, return to 1068 again. Likely, ES will range trade until Europe opens.
Monday 9:43 PM EST
As anticipated, the ES continues its slow descent to test 1068. Watching to see if 1068 holds or break lower. Last ES 1069.50.
Monday 8:02 PM EST
Watching 1073, then 1077 or 1068.
Right now, the 60min ES is coiling (sym triangle) and the bias is currently down. Now usually these coils resolve in the direction of the trend (in this case UP), but other indicators suggest a downward bias, for now at least, until 1073 is hurdled.
I think it is significant that the ES futures are still trading under 1073, since 1073 was support all day during the daytime session, until it was broken late in the day with a decline to 1068. Now, we will see if the previous 1073 support becomes resistance; as I write this, 1073 is the new resistance before 1077, since it has held as R thus far.
Until the European markets open, I see 1077, 1073 and 1068 as the key numbers to watch. If the bulls do not hurdle 1073, then the risk of a decline to the numbers below is probable. However, let's remember that ES can decline to 1056 and STILL maintain it's bullish profile.
Key ES numbers:
1077: Primary short term resistance. Look to see if this holds prices down, or if it breaks higher. Right now, the charts suggest no higher break. It is also the previous MAJOR high. A sustained break over this could propel ES to 1103/1120 (with ups and downs along the way)
1073: Monday's support for the day.
1068: Monday's low of the day. Also prior significant high.
1056: Watch to see if this holds prices up or breaks lower. The 1056 is also close to a prior signif high as well as the breakout higher level.
1046: Prior significant low. The bulls need to defend this to prevent 1020.
1037: Support from prior high, shelf breakout support.
1026
1021
1012: Recent MAJOR low. If this breaks lower and sustains, I'd expect fireworks.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures
Friday 8:24 AM
Friday 5:26 AM
Thurs. 11:12 PM
Since it's still early in the nightly session, I'll keep this brief. Right now, the charts suggest a decline to 1060 and then to 1056 (possibly only 1058).
Key ES numbers:
1067: Primary short term resistance. Look to see if this holds prices down, or if it breaks higher. Right now, the charts suggest no higher break.
1076: Previous MAJOR high. A sustained break over this could propel ES to 1103/1120 (with ups and downs along the way)
1056: Overnight support. Watch to see if this holds prices up or breaks lower. The 1056 is also close to a prior signif high as well as the breakout higher level.
1046: Prior significant low. The bulls need to defend this to prevent 1020.
1037: Support from prior high, shelf breakout support.
1026
1021
1012: Recent MAJOR low. If this breaks lower and sustains, I'd expect fireworks.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Daily ramblings
Thurs 12:04 PM EST
If QID holds 22.40 (last 22.66) then we will have an RSI double bottom in 60min chart with a bullish divergence, suggesting higher QID prices (lower qqqq nasdaq).
Thurs 11:58 AM ESTSPX did break marginally above the wedge (From Monday 10/5/2009 till now). no major blastoff yet. let's see what happens. these bear rising wedges often have a blowoff top followed by a nasty decline. time will tell.
Thurs 11AM EST
possible bear wedge spx 60min. has more upside room, stoch say it could go up, but there is a wedge. wedge R now is 1068, with poss 1076, but does not suggest 1076 today unless velocity increases. could hit 1071 today at current velocity if the support. also watching for break lower in the wedge. there is a steeper speed line that could put spx at 1069 breakout around 1:08 PM.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
If QID holds 22.40 (last 22.66) then we will have an RSI double bottom in 60min chart with a bullish divergence, suggesting higher QID prices (lower qqqq nasdaq).
Thurs 11:58 AM ESTSPX did break marginally above the wedge (From Monday 10/5/2009 till now). no major blastoff yet. let's see what happens. these bear rising wedges often have a blowoff top followed by a nasty decline. time will tell.
Thurs 11AM EST
possible bear wedge spx 60min. has more upside room, stoch say it could go up, but there is a wedge. wedge R now is 1068, with poss 1076, but does not suggest 1076 today unless velocity increases. could hit 1071 today at current velocity if the support. also watching for break lower in the wedge. there is a steeper speed line that could put spx at 1069 breakout around 1:08 PM.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
overnight ES futures
Overnight the ES futures made a high of 1066 (1065.75). They just re-tested that high as I'm typing this and have backed down some. The 1065.75 is the exact high from Tuesday 9/29, so we need to watch for possible double top.
Bullish: Hold above 1061 for another test of 1066, and then on to 1072, 1076, and 1100.
Bearish: Break below 1061 for 1059, 1057, 1053, 1048, 1046, 1038, 1021, 1012, 1003
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Bullish: Hold above 1061 for another test of 1066, and then on to 1072, 1076, and 1100.
Bearish: Break below 1061 for 1059, 1057, 1053, 1048, 1046, 1038, 1021, 1012, 1003
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPX bulls vs bears
The ES overnight futures have made a nice advance.
The line in the sand for the bears right now is SPX 1070. A CLOSE (not just intraday penetration) above that number would wreck the current downtrend. The bulls have successfully pushed prices back up since the last push down by the bears.
After 1070 SPX is held and sustained, 1080 test is likely, and the pattern projects to 1104 SPX.
However, an equal possibility is that a double top forms at 1080, or even 1070, and prices make lower lows. Also, if the bears are able to hold SPX under 1070 (preferably 1063), then the downtrend is still valid which suggest lows below 1021 to 1003 eventually.
The charts certainly look bullish the last several hours, but the bulls need to seal the deal, or the bears need to hold down the advance. We are likely to find out soon.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
The line in the sand for the bears right now is SPX 1070. A CLOSE (not just intraday penetration) above that number would wreck the current downtrend. The bulls have successfully pushed prices back up since the last push down by the bears.
After 1070 SPX is held and sustained, 1080 test is likely, and the pattern projects to 1104 SPX.
However, an equal possibility is that a double top forms at 1080, or even 1070, and prices make lower lows. Also, if the bears are able to hold SPX under 1070 (preferably 1063), then the downtrend is still valid which suggest lows below 1021 to 1003 eventually.
The charts certainly look bullish the last several hours, but the bulls need to seal the deal, or the bears need to hold down the advance. We are likely to find out soon.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
ES futures updates....
Wedn 8:37 AM
ES slowly drifted down, tested 1049, went to 1047, and popped back up now to 1050. Bias is still down until 1051 breaks higher.
Wedn 7:03 AM
ES Futures are now at 1050.
Bullish: Break over 1050, then 1054, 1057. Significant upside if 1057 broken.
Bearish: If 1049 breaks, then 1047, 1042. Significant downside if 11042 broken.
At posting time, the bias is down.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, October 5, 2009
Idea... short KR 21.03
Idea... short KR 21.03
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Random ramblings - Monday
2:25 PM
Notice the similarity in SPY from Sept 23-26 and 9/29 till today. Still bearish on SPY / SPX esp with low volume. 9/28 green bar and todays green bar on low vol, still under R.
2:09 PM
15min spx chart says down to me unless bulls come on strong...purely tech perspective its down, as i see it. SPX last 1037.
1:48 PM
spx 10 15 min charts giving a early 'sell' but whipsaw expected, to me. spx last 1037.
1:20 PM EST
spx should be EXPLODING through these levels....it's breaking high and making new highs but very small increments. SPX "should" be at 1044 right now, not 1037. decline might not come today (or at all) but the warnings r there.
TZA at 13.00 on 3min intraday "looks bad" but actually i see it as neutral with bullish bias (bearish for tNa).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Notice the similarity in SPY from Sept 23-26 and 9/29 till today. Still bearish on SPY / SPX esp with low volume. 9/28 green bar and todays green bar on low vol, still under R.
2:09 PM
15min spx chart says down to me unless bulls come on strong...purely tech perspective its down, as i see it. SPX last 1037.
1:48 PM
spx 10 15 min charts giving a early 'sell' but whipsaw expected, to me. spx last 1037.
1:20 PM EST
spx should be EXPLODING through these levels....it's breaking high and making new highs but very small increments. SPX "should" be at 1044 right now, not 1037. decline might not come today (or at all) but the warnings r there.
TZA at 13.00 on 3min intraday "looks bad" but actually i see it as neutral with bullish bias (bearish for tNa).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Idea...short SPX 1037 now, or TZA at 12.98
swing short here in spx 1037/1038 with 1057 spx stop could work nicely.... or stop lower than 1057 if desired....position size /shares accordingly. there is a bear wedge in the 60min spx which could get very nasty if it breaks lower.
Or, tza at 12.98 long.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Or, tza at 12.98 long.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Sunday eve/ Monday pre-market ES futures
Monday 7:27 AM EST
The futures moved up to 1028.50. The 15minute chart suggests that ES will move lower from here after breaking 1027, but we will see.
Sunday 9:58 PM EST
if the 3min is a wedge, then it just broke lower and will backtest up a lil. Also there is a bearish MACD vs price divergence in ES....prices up, MACD hist down
Sunday 9:24 PM EST
The futures moved up to 1028.50. The 15minute chart suggests that ES will move lower from here after breaking 1027, but we will see.
Sunday 9:58 PM EST
if the 3min is a wedge, then it just broke lower and will backtest up a lil. Also there is a bearish MACD vs price divergence in ES....prices up, MACD hist down
Sunday 9:24 PM EST
right now ES trying to test 1026 again...if it turns down at 1027 this is a possible 3 drives to high failure, unless breaks 1027 highr. Note that the ES nitely pattern could be a bearish risiing wedge not a triangle 3min. Looks more like a bear wedge to me. But it's so early in nite that ES could just range trade 1021--1026. A break of either of those could cause followthrough in the direction of the break.
Sunday 8:14PM EST
Right now there's a pattern in 15 min ES that projects to 998 next if 1026 holds. If 1026 breaks higher then there is more R at 1027, 1031. But, there is also a bullish divergence in RSI/price in 60 minute chart that suggests a break over 1026. It is still very early in the session.Sunday 8:14PM EST
tomorrow's forecast depends on overnight futures action. the SPX 15 and 60min charts do suggest more downside before a bounce up, but ES shenanigans overnight could change all that most ppl do expect UP tomorrow, but IF the spx "continues" what it started on Friday afternoon, then spx will move lower
For SPX tomorrow, it will be interesting to see if SPX stays under 1031. Under 1031 would be very bearish, over 1031 suggests poss 1038/1041.
b4 a bounce up
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, October 2, 2009
QID swing 24.34
I added QID today at 24.34, with appropriate stops and risk control.
It is possible that we get a bounce up on Monday in QQQQ / SPX (down for QID), but the charts suggest more upside in QID, to me. This is based on the 50 minutes and 15 minutes chart which looks like they have unfinished business on the upside for QID (down for QQQQ). The 60 min chart MACD histogram does warn that a decline is possible because it's slope is down. RSI and Stoch suggest a push higher in QID, then a decline, then another push higher. Likely I will exit the QID before the decline and buy it back again for the next move higher and I will continue holding the SDS that i bought previously, for weeks if needed, until the current downtrend correction ends.
60 minute chart
15 min chart
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
It is possible that we get a bounce up on Monday in QQQQ / SPX (down for QID), but the charts suggest more upside in QID, to me. This is based on the 50 minutes and 15 minutes chart which looks like they have unfinished business on the upside for QID (down for QQQQ). The 60 min chart MACD histogram does warn that a decline is possible because it's slope is down. RSI and Stoch suggest a push higher in QID, then a decline, then another push higher. Likely I will exit the QID before the decline and buy it back again for the next move higher and I will continue holding the SDS that i bought previously, for weeks if needed, until the current downtrend correction ends.
60 minute chart
15 min chart
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES futures updates....
Friday 6:48 AM
ES futures traded mildly in range all night.
The 15minute chart suggests a decline to 1017. Although it does not seem likely to occur before 9:30AM, that's what the chart says.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES futures traded mildly in range all night.
The 15minute chart suggests a decline to 1017. Although it does not seem likely to occur before 9:30AM, that's what the chart says.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Bearish Daily Divergence even if prices bounce up today
The chart below shows that SPX will have a negative bearish divergence with price vs. RSI, even if prices bounce up today. This would be the second such divergence. A divergence in the daily chart is more significant than one in a 60 minute chart.
The divergences suggest that even if SPX bounces today, lower prices are ahead nonetheless.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
The divergences suggest that even if SPX bounces today, lower prices are ahead nonetheless.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Possible SPX roadmap 1023, 1018, 1012, 1002, 995, 978, 904, 876
My tech analysis shows 1023, 1018, 1012, 1002, 995 as the targets down in SPX especially if
1041/44 holds as Resistance. And later, if SPX gets to 992 or 978, a bear Head and Shoulders
can develop. If that Head Shoulders breaks, then SPX targets next would be 904 or 876.
Of course, this happens only if resistance holds and the bears can break support levels. The bulls can push up to 1120 as an alternative.
Right now, the charts suggest the bearish case with a move to 1023 for starters.
I don't have a chart to post for this now, might add it later.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
1041/44 holds as Resistance. And later, if SPX gets to 992 or 978, a bear Head and Shoulders
can develop. If that Head Shoulders breaks, then SPX targets next would be 904 or 876.
Of course, this happens only if resistance holds and the bears can break support levels. The bulls can push up to 1120 as an alternative.
Right now, the charts suggest the bearish case with a move to 1023 for starters.
I don't have a chart to post for this now, might add it later.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
SPX shorts working well, market acts as expected
Well the market did exactly what I thought it would today, per yesterday's post. That's why I elected for a second early short position that I took yesterday.
Today's spx close sealed it. We have an official short term trend change to downtrend. It meets the criteria: spx broke the uptrend support, it made a lower high, and today it made a lower low.
Horizontal support and resistance levels for SPX shown in chart below.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Today's spx close sealed it. We have an official short term trend change to downtrend. It meets the criteria: spx broke the uptrend support, it made a lower high, and today it made a lower low.
Horizontal support and resistance levels for SPX shown in chart below.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday pre-market ES futures
Last night, ES hit a high of 1056 and then declined to a low of 1046 around 6:00 AM. They have mildly bounced off the 1046 low and are now at 1047.
1046 is an important number, because it is the low of yesterdays last hourly candle. The low of day yest was 1041 ES.
Important pivots for next 2 hours: 1046, 1051, 1056.
Scenarios:
Bearish: If 1046 breaks then test 1041, and then targets in post below.
Bullish: Bounce from 1046 to 1051, then hurdle 1051 to test 1055, 1058, 1060, 1063, 1066 then targets in post below. If 1062 is hurdled then 1066 is likely, and if 1066 hurdled then higher targets also likely.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
1046 is an important number, because it is the low of yesterdays last hourly candle. The low of day yest was 1041 ES.
Important pivots for next 2 hours: 1046, 1051, 1056.
Scenarios:
Bearish: If 1046 breaks then test 1041, and then targets in post below.
Bullish: Bounce from 1046 to 1051, then hurdle 1051 to test 1055, 1058, 1060, 1063, 1066 then targets in post below. If 1062 is hurdled then 1066 is likely, and if 1066 hurdled then higher targets also likely.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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