Daily ramblings Wedn nite, Thursday day

15:59
TNA closed at 39.53 for about $1 profit. Sold several times today at different levels, nice profit.
Bought TNA today 38.51, sold at 39.57,,39.41, 39.99, 39.53, for 2.3% to 3.8% on each sale.

15:58
for sure there are bullish signs, so us shorts need to be careful. we have bull harami. we have possible bull V or cup handle.

15:52
TNA missed by 40.09 target by 5 cents..HOD 40.03. Target was set when tna was at 39.70.

15:48
charts suggest that spx is done, that 1066 was it for now, even for tomorrow, unless we gap up or open above the close. A pop up is allowed, perhaps a marginal violation over 1066, but they suggest it's about it for now.

15:44
here's 1063 test... expecting break..

3:38pm
VIX has a double bottom 15min, ready for a bull failure swing (bearish for spx)

3:32
70% confidence break < 1063. last spx 1065.

3:30
i have an "early swing short" signal right here, now. SPX 1065

3:24
It looks like spx 1066 could very well become the new spx 1100...some overshoots of it, but building R there like 1100 did. time will tell.

3:23pm
spx 1066 short into the close signal now. expecting lower into the close, unless charts change.

3:16pm
1063 spx should get downside going, if spx goes there. last spx 1066

3:00
tna next target is 40.09....last 39.70

2:03 pm
I wouldnt be surprised to see spx get over 1060 and put in a shooting star candle.

1:07
ok...i'm in that spxu as a daytrade at 43.71. I will keep a portion as swing, if merited. i still have no "real" swing signal short...this is early...using daytrade conversion technique. Why did I enter? I have other signals, including a tripe bull divergence in 3min.  stop at 40.17 for now...yes its a wide stop...i'm budgeted at this level.  warning--- the spxu is crazy voliatile...not for the faint of heart...sds is milder and SH is normal.
 
12:57
trying some spxu at 43.71. purely based on pivots. agressive trade but have plenty of profits to re-invest.

1249
spx rite near this 1063....lets see...this is CRUCIAL

1234
39.49 sds....marginal violation for the .53 support i mentioned earlier.

1232
1063 spx should show some strong resistance...if we blast above that, something different is happening

12:31
bullish harami daily candle right now. however confirmation will be needed tomorrow. still am in 60min downtrend. lets remember the last fall was steep, this retracement is allowed. but certainly watching. for sds, a higher high and higher low is allowed.

12:27
here is the spx pop to 1059. as expected earlier below.

12:22
ABOVE THE MARKET i will consider sds 40.07 but no order in..just mental idea. 40.07 pierce could bring momentum back. why don't i buy sds here at 3976? for the same reason i did not buy it at 40.11....i would rather pay higher when momen shifts...in this case, i'll pay less or the same, but with momentum on my side

1218
i think sds will break under its daily support line, backtest it, and blast back above it

1214
expecting spx to pop over 1057 in next 2-3 minutes...near 12:18

1210
the expected move back up in spx is happening now...note though that even though prices are moving up, bullish momentum is weakening, at least for now. chart still says over 1057

1206
Bearish RISING wedge forming in spx, which points to lower prices, BUT MORE UP could come first in these wedges.

1147
On my sds chart,I've got all kinds of hand drawn lines.  From last thurs to Tues this week, sds was in a "normal speed" up channel (down for spx). The on Wed we got an accelerated steep up move that blasted right through the upper channel R line, which is holding as support. SDS has marginally violoated that line and is now in a temp 3hour down channel. if sds loses 39.52 it could see the lower original channel support line around 38.70. right now, sds is acting fine, just a moderate, expected pullback, but this risk needs to be monitored.

1145
there is risk of a move to 1080ish spx. i don't see it happening now, i see the partial formation of this chart pattern. Until it forms, i'm still bearish in 60min frame.

1140
ipod and bose time. tunes. listening to 2ndhand serenade, chicago, coldplay etc.

1137
ABOVE THE MARKET...ABOVE.... sds at the market when it hurdles 40.73. i fully intend on buying it lower, this is my guaranteed entry to allow participation in the event of a sudden drop.

1133
this chop is setting up a beautiful opp to re-enter swing shorts...going very well here...patiently waiting...so hard to wait...discipline

1128
15min spx is starting to form a divergence saying "short"....not there yet. last spx 1056

1127
unless spx consolodates, spx 1061 might not even be safe to short....i'll wait...could go higher

1119
i should have kept my .53 limit instead of manual...it would have gotten filled, instead i ended up with .43 on that piece

1117
if spx consolodats around here i will look for a swing short entry. often the best swing short entries are found in the less volatile consolodation periods

1105
sold som tna at 39.41, 38.53 paid

1101
tna hit my .17 and did a quick pop to .28, as expected. the .17 was impt. stops were run there. i might cancel my .56 limit sell and do manually to see if it gets .63 or more.

10:59
charts suggest spx retest of 1057 and marginal overshoot to 1060. last spx 1053

10:55
tna at .13 close to testing my .17 breakout #.

1052
i now see a push higher in spx, followed by consolod, followed by decline. last spx 1052

1044
bullish momen is weakening...still no swing short sig for me

1042
spx declined some here, to 1051, but my charts say "another push up" in spx. looking to short "up there" if able.

1040
if tna gets over 3917 it should overshoot my first target of 39.56 (to 39.63) before Target 39.73. 

1039
spx stalled exactly where i expected, pullback there was expected, waiting to see if it goes over 1057ish

1037
tna hit .65 just 2 cents from my stop. still in. may change stop to lossen but now its still at .65

10:25
I am still looking to re-enter on the short side as a swing, but because it's a swing, i need to wait longer for the proper setup. Last SDS is 40.04.  Even if i need to pay more than 40.04 for sds, I'd rather wait for the momentum shift to go back to the bears. Bulls have momen now INTRADAY only, swing momen is with bears still.

10:24
sell some of my tna limit .57. will raise stop to .63

10:21
TNA modified targets of 39.56 before Target 39.73. Also watching closely here to see if  I need to exit early. last tna 39.18.

10:04
Looking for tna to hold 38.47

10:01
In tna 38.51. Filled. Target 39.73 on break over 38.90

10:00
i will try tna 38.51 if filled

9:54
well this little
decline was expected,,,,still holding.
spx suggests high of day not in if
support holds here


9:49

qqqq target 42.38 if
41.89 breaks and sustains

but i like 42.18 and
42.23/27 better



9:42

10minutes has
passed. usually we will see a
contra-move here, then resumption
of open direction if the contramove
holds


that is, a spike down
here would be no problem for longs, as
long as support holds, and then higher
highs



9:23AM
Personally, i will NOT fade the open today. Nor will i trade it in the same direction, as i did yesterday. i'm stepping aside from the open.  Trading the open is very tricky. I have no clear sense, I expect some whipsaw, so I'll step aside. A trader always has THREE choices, not 2. Buy, sell, or do nothing.

9:12 AM
i have several trendlines in ES 60min due to chop...ES broke over the steepest one and is backtesting it now, and it did a perfect touch for DTL R #2 (less steep). Steepest one had 1046 R, second one has 1050 R.

7:59 AM
I'm expecting a bounce in spx to 1060 (actually my work says about 1056 / 1064), although the charts technically have not yet given the signal that spx is headed there. If we get there, then I'll evaluate possible re-entry to short, but I have no standing llimit order to automatically enter. Why? Because I want to observe the action first.  SPX could get 1079, even 1089, and STILL be bearish, although right now I'd think 1079 would be any rally cap for today, with the 1060 (1056/64) area most likely.

However, to get to 1060 spx, 1048 must first be hurdled. Inability of SPX to hurdle 1048 might present an opportunity to re-short even at that "low" level.  I do have a signal that suggests that SPX will nit 1048 if 1042 holds and 1045.50 is pierced.

7:47
As expected in the 11:17PM post, the ES stayed in a relatively narrow range from 1037 to 1044, and 1037 held. They did overshoot my estimate of 1042 by 2 points.

Charts suggest downward movement for now, although mild, probably contninuing in that range until either 1037 or 1044 is broken. If one is broken, we should see movement in direction of the break. Right now, seems headed to test 1041 then 1038/37 next.

1:22 AM Thurs
ES continues in the range, going up to 1042 from 1040.

11:17 PM Wedn
Will ES trade in 1037 to 1042 level tonight? we will see. last ES 1039 with 1040 high so far. But giving 1042 as possible range for next 4 hours.  After that, things can change.  If 1037 breaks lower, then likely we will get a gap down at the open at 9:30 AM.

Again, I re-iterate. I will be selling (shorting) all rallies for now. SPX has the potential for a serious downtrend to 1020, a pop up to 1072, then a break of 1020 to 918, unless the bulls step up and produce higher highs and higher lows. Chart do not suggest the bulls will do this just yet.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".