Daily ramblings

3:09 PM
If SPX does not go higher today, we may be seeing the development of the less common bearish triple top pattern. Bulls need preferably a higher high,, at least the 60min stoch must get over 80/82 or the rsi > 70/72.  yes the bulls want the stoch overbought--that would push prices higher before they decline.


2:12 PM
hmmm new chart pattern of the day ....spx bear rising wedge intraday, suggests possible lower spx despite this pop up after the beige book results. last spx 1098.50.  If 1096 breaks lower, should see 1092 test.  1092 needs to hold for bulls.

1:07 PM
SPX earlier developed a 15min down channel. It has now broken above the R line for the down channel, suggesting higher prices. It broke it, and is now backtesting it. BUT, other indicators suggest lower. So we need to wait, and use the price pivots, which will determine direction. There is also an upchannel in SPY which suggests 110.72 target today.

12:21
As expected, SPX did decline, so far to 1095. The charts still say lower SPX, BUT BUT the 1095 spx is critical to break lower. It can pivot up off the 1095 for a run at the highs.

11:47
Charts suggest either lower prices in SPX, or sideways trading for the next 1-2 hours, unless bulls can get spx over 1099, which they certainly can. Nevertheless, charts suggest lower or sideways. last spx 1098

11:31am
possible bear HS in spx that points lower to 1093 spx. last is 1098.

11:28
the daily candles in spx this week look similar to the pattern from 8/24---8/28, which resulted in a decline in SPX. It will be interesting to see if the bulls can push up to 1120 this time.

11:25 AM
15min and 60min charts of spy warns of possible dbl top...there is 15min divergence on the macd hist of the 2 highs.
 
10:38 AM
remember that ES has a higher high than spx....so the 1100 spx could pop to at least test the ES high. ES high 1099. that would be 1103 spx. It is poised for a possible break higher now to test that.

10:33 AM
Thus far, resistance in SPX has held it down, barely. Financials are weaker (XLF) than SPX.  watching the spx 15min for bearish mMm...one forming now but its early premature, needs followthrough.

9:56 AM
SDS declined to 37.18. It is now backtesting the downtrend channel line that it broke ABOVE yesterday. If it holds near here, we could see higher SDS (lower SPX).


9:38 AM
ES broke 1087 and now testing 1091.  See if it holds down or breaks higher.
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9:08 AM premarket

ES hit low of 1080.75 this morn and bounced up to 1085...thus far 1080 held. The overnight high was 1091.50.

Right now, 1087 is the pivot number: above it bullish, below it, bearish.

For the next 2 hours, the SPX charts suggest a possible bounce up, but the ES charts are neutral and could go either way.  The 1081, 1087 and 1091 should be key in the next 2 hours, with 1087 the immediate focus. There is a downward bias in the ES charts, but that is dependent on ES staying under 1087/91, and the opening bell could quickly change that. So the SPX and ES are throwing conflicting signals.

Scenarios:
Bullish:  Right now, the bulls need to hurdle over 1087, then 1091, 1099.
Bearish:  Bears want ES < 1087 for 1081, 1076.



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".