1. SPX did put in a new low of 1042.19, right at my 1042 target. Went from 1052 at time of post to 1042. (2:21pm 2:06, post)
2. SDS hit the first two targets of 40.69, 40.98. The 41.04 High for today was close to 40.98, just 6 cents away.
3. The 12:37 expected breakout lower in spx did happen, about 10 minutes early.
4. Sold faz at 23.03, cost 21.53, a 7% profit in 8 hours. High was 23.09. Also sold some faz at lower price of 22.90 and 22.43.
5. Did a quick trade (10 minutes) at the open in TNA at 40.71 for 2.5% profit in 20 minutes. sold 50% of it at 41.17. Stopped out at breakeven at 40.71 for the rest. Although it looks like it was a good trade, it quickly turned against me, stopping me out. I fully intended to hold this much longer, but it hit 21.17 and started to weaken, so I sold it for profit and raised my stop, in case it went higher. It did not go higher, so the 2nd half was sold at breakeven (no profit). If a trade "does not behave", I like to exit instead of "hoping".
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70% confidence level for me that we break LOD in spx
2:06pm
On spx, there is now a micro bear divergence 15min charts that could push spx lower, esp given the intraday trend is down. It's a weak diverg, but its there.
2:03pm
sds targets 40.69, 40.98, and now a chart pattern that points to 41.27. But each target must be hurdled and sustained of course. faz target 43.03.
1:29pm
intraday charts, amazingly, still say another push lower today...idk how far,,, but should go lower before any bounce on spx. i know its hard to believe, but thats what my signals are saying. spx last 1052.
1:01 PM
The break lower in spx happened as I anticipated. On this move to spx 1047.12, the bears just migh have averted the dreaded bullish divergence in price vs rsi, thought the macd hist shows some.
12:18
sds testing upper line in bull flag now...will prob retreat... chop for 15more min. sds last 4025
12:11
for sds, on the 5min sds a case can be made for a bull flag within the current prices, without moves loser than 40.10at current veloicty, it would call for a breakout higher in SDS (lower spx) at 12:37, but lunchtime can slow that
11:56
Now, spx heading down for test #2 of the spx 50MA
10:53
ES sliced through 1050, ignored it. SPX now at its 50MA support...very impt...at 1051ish. A break of this could cause momentum drop.
10:48
ES approaching the round # of 1050....see if it bounces or slices through.
10:46
Preparing to sell 20% part of faz from my cost at 21.53/63 at first sign of weakness here for a profit. last faz 22.02. Still looks higher, but will see.
10:39
Yesterday I identified the bullish divergences in SPX that pointed to a possible bounce. However, I also noted that the divergences appeared to be bahaving more like a COIL, which usually resolves in the direction of the trend, in this case, DOWN for spx. This is what is happening here. For swings, I still have NO BUY signal for spx, and I do not have a "cover shorts" (i.e. sell SDS FAZ) either.
This is why I decided to hold those swings last night, instead of taking profits on them.
My charts say 1055 was not the end of any wave. i don't do much ewave, so i'll leave that to u experts. all i know is my charts, at this minute,
10:34
It is very significant that XLF broke its daily 50 MA ON THE FIRST TRY and has STAYED UNDER IT for 1 day so far (2 if it stays under today). Now the SPX is approaching a test of its 50 MA at 1051. We must allow for the possibility that it too will break on the first try. Usually there is a bounce, so this could be significant. I will be watching this closely. I have CANCELLED my limit orders to sell the FAZ and SDS swings and will re-evaluate if/when SPX tests its 50 MA.
10:33AM
FAZ target 22.41.
10:19 AM
faz right now is pusshing up against the daily 50MA resistance. however, xlf already broke UNDER its 50MA daily 2 days ago...and stayed under. this is why i use the non-leveraged etfs like xlf to make decisinos on the leveraged ones like faz.. the non-lev give more accurate reads
9:39 AM
SPX did not technically have a gap up, but it did open above yesterday's close.
9:31 AM
Am in TNA at 40.71 long daytrade with tight stop. sold 50% of it at 41.17. Stop raised to breakeven at 40.71 for the rest.
9:17 AM
Thus far the ES has held 1057 as resistance since breaking below it. ES is now poised to test 1057 again, and things get interesting as volume increases. A sustained break over 1057 points to 1062 as the next target. There are mixed signals. Divergences suggest higher ES, but the 1057 must be hurdled. There is an RSI bull swing failure that says 1057 will break higher if it can stay over 1055.
6:11 AM
Thus far the ES overnight made a high of 1063 and a low of 1055. As I expected at midnight (12:31), they did decline to 1057. The 1057 did not hold and they broke under to 1055. This is an example of a break that has not been SUSTAINED, at least not yet. We will watch to see if the 1057 acts as resistance (formerly support) to sustain the break lower, or if the break under 10577 to 1055 is just marginal.
We will see if ES can hold 1055 or not, it is the breakout higher point from Wed 107/7, so it is significant. 1051 would be the next test lower if 1055 does not hold.
Scenarios: (will be updated later perhaps)
Bearish: As long as ES is under 1057 /1062 it is very bearish. It can bounce up to 1076ish and still be considered in a 60min down channel, although under I prefer it to stay under 1071 for bearishness.
12:31 AM
1. I expect ES to test 1057 in overnight trading. I expected this test to happen already, but it has not.
2. i expect a bounce, to
a lower high. right now i will be
selling the rallies short, the daily and
60min trend is down until broken
higher again
the spx has lower
highs, lower lows, so i wil be shorting
for swings. when it starts making
higher highs, higher lows then i will
swing to the long side.
the spx has lower
highs, lower lows, so i wil be shorting
for swings. when it starts making
higher highs, higher lows then i will
swing to the long side.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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