Monday outlook, ideas

Below are some quick notes and thoughts. I may refine this later. Rough draft below.


i will do more analysis. i anticipate any rally in spx to stall at 1040/45 on monday.

also, we could see
1025/20/16 on monday instead. I
have 4 scenarios...some bullish some
bearish

i'm trading both
swing (2-15 days) and position
(weeks/months). charts for position
trades suggest a downtrend for the next 3-16 weeks.

for my position trades
(short via SH) i anticipate up and down
moves, even as high as 1070/80. for
the swings, i'll be playing the "short
the rally" strategy, weaving
in and out.

it's all about
support, resistance, and channels now
(along with my other indicators).
Channels are forming and this makes
for some great opportunities both long
and short

unless chart patterns change (and they might on monday), i will only go long for daytrades. the risk of holding long overnight is not worth it, by my current charts. holding shorts overnight right now presents much less risk, because even if the spx rallies up (bad for shorts) the direction now is down, so the rally is only to a lower high. Then, since its a swing, I continue to hold and the price moves back down, back into the profit zone.

on Thursday, when everyone was getting excited and going long, instead i shorted into that rally close to the high, (via SPXU 3x bear spx etf) getting an excellent price, exiting half of it on Friday, for an easy 8% profit overnight, and holding the other half. In fact, I did not have an "exit short" signal Friday via my system/strategy but I exited a portion anyways to lock in some profits. Anyone who went long Thursday overnight swing was in trouble on Friday.


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