daily ramblings

2:45pm
in next 1 hour, charts suggest one last push down in spx...see if we get it, and how much if any. that's provided that spx does not break over R. last spx 1065.

2:40pm
if spx closes with a candle that looks like the daily candle now, then it is likely to test 1077 tomorrow. trend still down on 60min but the pop up is likely. which makes for an interesting decision on what i want to do with my swing shorts.

2:36 pm
if the rsi 15min in faz begins to fail here, i will reduce my exposure in faz and sell some more, still at a profit. holding some more for a push higher.  not likin the rsi unless it pushes higher...it is right at support now in rsi.  faz continues to test and marginally violate its R line...no followthru but the up violations r there

2:32
there are bull divergences on the 15min spx, but they suggest to me a coil type behaviour, which usually resolves in the direction of the trend, in this case down.

2:29pm
1074 spx could come on a break over 1067
 
2:24 pm
spx continues to trade in the lower 1/3 of its downchannell, consistently touching my dtl support but not breaking it, on 60min chart. that's bearish.

2:05pm
faz limit filled at .43


1:57
if the faz bulls (spx bears) can push faz higher, then they can convert the bear rising faz wedge to an up channel

1:47
faz has danger of falling now due to dev of bearish rising wedge (higher spx) in 60min chart. but still holding since other indicators say another "push up".

1:35 pm
limit sell more faz raised to 21.43 from 21.37. holding some for 21.80

1:18pm
spx bounced EXACTLY of my lower support dtl in the spx down channel. it remains confined to the narrow, very bearish channel. however, at current velocity, spx will not make a new low today, it would close around 1062. but i expect velocity to increase as vol increases in the next 2.5 hours. i expect a test of the low, and possible break. bears will want to break it to 1056 and close around 1058.

1:11pm
limit sell more faz at 21.37. holding some for 21.80

1:09pm
sold some faz at 21.12.  i expect higher but am compelled to sell the expected overshoot of my 21.03 target.

12:53
looking for 21.03 faz as next target for the .60 entry

12:46
The bears need to make a lower low for the day to avert the formation of a bullish divergence in spx. bulls want to defend the low of course. at this moment, charts suggest the low will break.

12:31
faz at 20.75....first target hit for scalp of .60

12:19
in faz scalp 20.60. mental stop around .47

12:04
still waiting to enter tbt, not yet. possible entry when the 15min and 60min tbt give me buy signals. tbt is to hold for weeks or months, not days.

12:02
spx is testing the narrow downchannel R right now. see if holds down or breaks. note that even a break above it will likely do a backtest down. spx last is 1069.98.  this spx tight channel lower R line is holding amazingly well...i drew it at 10AM...THRU some prices not at exact highs....still under it now in spx. sometimes its better to draw trendlines THRU prices to get more touches...imho...(knowing some ppl will disagree with THAT lol)
11:58
small profit...not worth it...hedge served its purpose, chart weakening rite now, nearly just breakeven form 4309--4314. This was a breakout momentum trade, and I didn't get the breakout, so out I go before this turns to a loss.

11:43
in tna 43.09, for scalp trade.

11:36
the narrower down channel is still holding for now, mentioned below at 10:33. R is at 1070.68 spx and S is 1063.67. Resistance for the wider down channel is 1088.54, support is same at 1063.67

11:23 am
spx charts are a bit confusing here. 60min spx suggest higher spx but 15min suggests lower. this probably will result in more range trading, as the 2 charts fight agains each other.60min trend is still down, it's only suggesting a bounce, not massive move higher, at this point. also there is a bullish divergence in 60min suggesting bounce, but the 15min might hold it down.

11:15am
a break under 1067 should bring 1063 next in spx

10:58
faz buy signal here at 20.74

10:56
we have a daily doji candle now? why? because the bulls and bears are fighting. and because of the oversold conditions on the 15 and 60min charts.  again, if the bulls can keep prices down while the oversold burns off, they remain in control.  The bulls want to push prices higher from the oversold, not just consolodate.

10:46
as long as spx is under 1077 and preferred 1073, charts are still very bearish, with 1088 allowed. would be bearish to have spx 15min stoch at 88% and spx under 1073/1077....very bearish as long as the stoch is up there and prices dont go up much. last stoch 84.  however, a pop up is usually associated with a stoch move above 80, before a decline, so a bounce here could happen.

10:35
Right now, faz is behaving with the stoch, per the 10:18 post below. Continuing to watch.

10:34
FAZ 3min is still bullish, showing no neg divergences.

10:33
On SPX 60min there is a clear down channel, with a smaller narrower downchannel inside it. If the narrower channel holds its R, that would be very bearish. Lower channel R now at 1071, upper at 1088.50 spx rite now.  last spx is 1067.

10:27
FAZ has an ominous looking bearish shoot star 15min

10:18
Ok here's what i'm looking for to happen to keep bears in control. (FAZ and SDS are bearish plays).
The FAZ needs to stay over 20.50 while the 15min stoch needs to go lower to burn off some. As the 15min stoch goes lower, we want the FAZ not to decline too much. That will give FAZ (or sds) the momentum to make higher highs.

9:50
well ES hit 1058 fast, as noted at 8:31AM...actually hit 1057, and bounced from there. i guess some of that faz sold at es 1058, whatever price that was on faz

9:49
in faz 20.81

9:41
ES testing the 1064 now. SPX 1067.50

9:36 AM
SPX mini R is 1073. But the spx remains bearish as long as SPX < 1089.

9:32 AM
ES did not gap down. Watching the ES 1070 to see if it holds as R or breaks.

9:19 AM
Thus far, ES 1064 has held, declining to 1065 and bouncing up. The ES charts suggest a break of 1064, but since it is so close to 9:30AM, the SPX charts might take control.

8:31 AM
If ES breaks under 1064 it could see 1061 then 1058 quickly.  Lets see what happens. This could happen before 9:30 AM market open, producing a gap down. The break of 1064 is likely if ES stays under 1068.

ES 1061 is important because it is a prior signif low from 10/13.  And 1058/57 are lows from 10/8 and 10/9.  I arrived at the 1061/1058 targets using 3 min and 15 min patterns, so here we see a 15 minute pattern that measures to targets very close to, or exactly the same as, prior signif lows.

In any case, 1061 and 1058 are key areas that the bulls must defend, and the bears must break. and 1070 is the important Resistance  area for the next 2 hours.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".