Friday ramblings

501 PM
A few days ago I mentioned I wanted SCO short oil at 15.00,,,it hit 14.83 today and i got a 15.00 fill on a 25% starter position. The daily chart is somewhat bearish while 60min is bullish,,,so I initiated a starter position earlier today on the limit fill buy.

352
it's "hard" to short into this, just as it was hard shorting into 1203 and 1120, but the swing setup is there for swings willing to endure whipsaw,



and not over-sized,,,swing target: about 1,000 points down on the DOW
 
344
skf stop 1886

342
notice the diff between today's gap up and the gap up on Sept 1 (where i went long)...the 9/1 gap has a bullish big candle, not indecision, and happened near a bottom as a breakout from rectangle

342
for the bulls, this gap up without a big green candle but conversely with a spin top,,,this is dangerous and suggests strongly that bear eve star pattern mentioned below for next week

327
Chakin Money FLow also warns of tired rally: its double topping and turning down on daily spy, vs the 3 candles up on spy, bearish,,, chakin combiunes A/D with Volume

324
60 min ADX on SPY now says this rally is overdone

320
low risk --skf stops set at 19.87 vs 20.19 entry

318
i'm doubling my swing short position now to 50% size from 25% size here at 1101 ES,,1100.50, in faz tza skf etc

312
THE XLF IS SETTING UP FOR A POSSIBLE VERY BEARISH EVE STAR CANDLE PATTERN ON TUESDAY as well as SPY and QQQQ

if we get this pattern with a confirmation on wednesday, then it will mark the end of the rally and the resumption of the prior dailytrend(down)


311
i'm going to sell some ung 25-50% of swing today as it touches the daily DTL, for a 5-6% profit since buying yest, and try to buy back next week if able,,,holding the other 50-75%

307
close 1097 is not horrible but it would be bad for bulls,,,under 1093 cloe is a likely bullisgh disaster,, over 1097 could suggest chop sideways on tues

303
todays close should give a good clue on whether to expect a gap down on tuesday

251
dont see a huge gain on skf today---next week it will come

250
there goes skf,,,nervous would exit here,,i will stay for scalp

246
notice on ES 15min the early large candels and these small ones on the way up....thats bearish rise the small lil candles

231
yesterday i mentinoed that it looked like UNG put in a signif new low and botom at 618,,, looks like 618 was it for now,,, now at 660 or 5 cents from primary target #2,, with T3 at 679, 720

223
i'm down red 11 cents on this skf scalp but still dont see a reason to exit,,,hodling for now

219
looking for a bullish rsi swing on the 3min skf (bear xlf),,dont have it yet

213
charts still say long skf short xlf tho

212
they r being v v tricky here,,, my "buy signal" software is being hit with multiple buys and sells,,,cancelling it out both ways,,,they r not being transparent at all,,, that is the software is saying "buy or sell program signal but i dont know which one"

206
UNG is moving nice here and if it gets a close over 652 it would be v bullish, last 657 :)

141
UNG  hit 650, over its 647 trgt,,, 665 primary T1 is next, then 679 720,, from 6.23 cost,, ung roi now about3.75% in 1 day


131
xlf is testing its 3min support a few times,,, could go either way but seems to be forming base to temp crack below it,, bias is for it to crack but not a huge move down

130
that 1101.50 ES algo resist has held perfect thus far,,,still watching

107
added faz and skf here, more, 2014 skf

1259
i'm adding more short here 1101 neae trhe 110150 algo resist, ES

1256
watching the 1101.50 algo resist here...seeing if it holds or not,,,, hidden R

1243
this decline in skf faz not bothersome,,,the 3 min is holding rsi over 33 despite the drops,,at 36,, suggests the skf trend is actually up

1239
theres more R algorithimically at 1101.50 not a "level")

1238
1099.75 short could work ESx

1230
THE adx reading on xlf has a DI+  DI- bull cross on daily BUT the ADX itself is pinted down, suggesting sideways and that this bull cross is not validated, least not yet

1227
xlf sell prog signal,,,should pop skf to 2033

1225
the vix is to low to write options...so a buyere here,,,when vix gets over 28 then i'll write options,, i only do options at price extremes, i believe xlf is near a price extreme.

1221
just bought some puts xlf , oct 14.00, for 40 cents

1159
1099 ES resist, loast 1098

1155
skf 10 min stoch warns of upside on skf

1136
2038 would be scalper trgt on skf,,, longer daytrades wouild hold lil longer for higher, 2035 last

1123
faz again 1387 here could work

1111
KO may be good for one more move up,,,the daily is just now forming a bear diverg but up is likely for KO,,but no entry setup here

1103
the only long scalp i'll try today (prob not at all) is at an extreme day level,,,will not get that setup for at least 1 hour

1100
TZA already up almost $1 from cost

1053
xlf is close to a bear rsi failure swing on the rsi,,3min,

1049
thus far, surprisingly, XLF newly est 3min resist is holding,,,it usually "widens" when its new (ie go higher on first try) but hasnt yet,,this is v bearish

1046
extremely active scalpers would buy back faz they sold at 1408 here at 1398

1044
skf is a few cents over newly established n therefore weak 3min support here 2033,, trendline supp 2027

1036
UNG continues building base for swing targets 665 and 7.20, last 6.43 having hit that interim trgt, swing target is 14.8% profit if hit

1034
1408 faz here a decent spot for partial profits day 1.9%

1031
my system program trader has a "hold short all day and further swing setup"... 82% wins on it over 5yrs

1019
longside scalps could work v well today,,, we prob will not go down a lot,,,just too much work for now longside,,,being lazy

1016
today i will only scalp on the short side,,,if the scalp targets are not hit i'll hold it as swing,,, can't do that with long scalps

928
Yesterday I mentioned a move down in TZA that should create a buying opp,,, the TZA has either hit that level or come close to it, hence the newly acquired TZA pre-market, this is a swing multiweek/months and will need to endure through whipsaw up down up down

906

if this short setup is confirmed this morning, then it is the same type of trade I did on April 22 short spx 1203,, ,, June 17 short 1120,,, so I've been waiting since June for an "add more multi-week shorts" setup,,,,v close to it right now

852



NOW



finally we are close enough



... added tza 3120 and faz 1379,,,



for swings















852 AM Friday









WOW



the CAT swing long short up to



69.85.... selling here 6875--6985



variable fills pre-mkrt







* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".