Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

409
oil has some bull diverg that may allow adding to swing short later tonite/tomorrow,,,still have 75% of shares

401
vix and tlt have the same daily candle

356
tza has a valid swing long entry here

354
this unh short is being stubborn, red a little,,but still valid,,,bouncing in its wedge,,,, 3564 last vs 3549 short swing

327
SPXU 2770 here, swing/scalp combo

322
es at 60min "longer term support" ...but "shorter term 15min support is lowre

318
oops that sell program alert was for xlf not unh LOL

316
UNH sell program alert just came thru,, watching to see if a sell program and down comes, from 14.56

313
on the last bounce, xlf stayed under the resist # from 3 hours ago as i expected

306
daily and 60min TLT still bullish, bearish for spx

244
ES should have decent resist 1132-1136.,...a quik push to 1139 would show bull strength,, but bias is stall, sideways, down

242
unh last 3560, if it moves to 3530 then its within its bear rising wedge,,,if higher then redraw needed

239
under 1139 ES on 60min chart is bearish,,, lower highs and lower lows, last 1132

231
spx under 1130 is bearish too, but under  1130 may come on a gap down, who knows

205
spxu over 2800ish at 355pm, could be nice swing entry to short spx, or could enter here at 2773 and exit b4 close if not looknig good

152
hmm notice that vix is on its 15min support, but spx has not reached its 15min R,,could be bearish indic intraday, spx last 1136

147
"close" is 3:55PM for this purpose, to allow time to enter orders before 4pm

145
an spx close under 1134 today would give a CONFIRMED "short spx" setup swing, with an intital entry only 25-50% size, this is not an "early entry unconfirmed" but rather a "confirmed initial starter size" setup, for me,,, i chose to enter 2 days ago on the "early entry unconnfirmed signal" at 1140 spx

125
SCO just hit over the 1565 trgt, 1567 last,,1570 high of day so far

123
well if we redraw this ES 60min trendline for a weak "only 2 touches" and use lowest wicks, then ES is now sitting on it,,,very precarariou re-draw and bearish,,,it already broke under the "real support trendline 60min" when it went under 1131

114
1444 xlf trgt lower

113
not going long xlf on test of lod

113
1451 xlf,,,any bounce will see stiff R at 1457, if even that hi

112
also xlf at LOD low

111
TLT is at its HOD,,,,ES should test its low, for 1121 trgt still

109
ES finally hit 1128 for the 2 point scalp from 1130 (i didnt take that trade)

107
oil bulls willl see a dbl top on the short sco 60min,,,, but its in a coil so i'm holding for higher sco, lower oil,,, takin 25% of shares off here to lock 3% profit, just in case, and holding 75% shares (3% if 1500 entry, or 11% from the 1400 entry

1253
hmm tza



shot up, no longer red there finally
 
1247
sco continues its bullish consolodation up here, 1551 last

1207
TLT 104.60 is an entry for aggressive traders, conserv would wait to add more (lower or higher dependin on chart when that comes).,,i'm not adding here,,,added at 103.98 and 100 b4

1159
ES "should" hit 1128 b4 higher, but the trendline is steep and breakable higehr as mentinoed hour ago

1156
heres ES at that 1130,,watching reaction now, trendline R + horizon R but steep DTL

1151
status: sco roi +4%, tza red  -1%, tlt 1%, vxx +2%

1147
UNH just had an intraday gap lower, rare but happens, could be v bearish UNH, 1min chart

1144
the vix break over 2300 was a break over algorithmic daily resist,,,but the break is marginal and on a daily R so more needed, but is warning

1143
vix 2400 trgt BUT is at resist 2320 here

1141
es 1130/31 has multiple layers of R so will likely hold first try for scalp short,,,but getting tight

138
1131 ES is 3min DTL resist, but steep line so could break higher

1135
sco has a v nice 10min bull pennant,,,if it can hold it then 1600 trgt, tho 10min flags weaker obviously

1128
taking another 25% of xlf puts off here,,, for 43% profit since this morn

1127
vxx and sco accelerating here, tlt lagging from % -wise, but tlt is not a 3x etf, still strong tlt

1124
1614 should stall/pullbak if it hits there, b4 higher trgts achieved

1123
over 1565 sco is needed then 16.14 then 17.00 trgt, may take some off 1614 if able

1121
hmm sco hit its 1549 trgt and pulled back some as expected, still swing sco

1116
FAZ finally hit 13.19 or one penny over 13.18 trgt,,,came 3 hours late, not b4 yest close

1114
marginal break lower here dangerous but unconfirmed and is small,, ES broke slighly below support trendline 60min

1113
if this trendline breaks then 1121 ES trgt then backtest up then under 1121 to earlier morn targets 8AM,, ES will likely continue to coil first and irritate short term

1110
as expected,ES now on the support trendline test again, straddling

1107
LOL xlf puts up to20 cents here,,, 25% roi in one hour,,, taking small piece off to lock profit,,,holding other 75% for much higher

1059
its  a bearish setup if we get it

1059
given this setup, one outcome is often a "straddle near support line 60min" as es coils, sym triangle

1052
UNH 60min bear haramin, scalper could take 1% profit, but i'll hold longer as this is swing short

1042
ES "might" provide a nice short entry when its 3min stoch hits 22%,, unconfirmed but likely, last stoch 14.50

1039
SCO shoul hit 1548 and stall,,,near the coil R2, but i still see a breakout higher over the coil for the real swing targets later,, sco may visit 1490,,,may add if it hits there

1034
partial profits only take faz, 6%ish roi

1032
tho taking some faz off here to lock partial profits makes sense,,,still see higher trgts so saving most for higher

1030
faz 1318 was yest trgt,,,was missed this morn first try,,so usually will overshoot next

1016
XLF remains v bearish despite the spx pop up,also the TLT strong,,both suggest lower spx

1006
1132/1129 ES support via trendline,,,watching to see if stall/bounce or break

1004
xlf puts at 16 cents here look low risk enough, oct 14 puts

1002
TLT is an excellent tool for swings,,,it generally turns b4 spx, useful to time spx longs shorts (tlt inverse relationshipt to spx, like vix)

959
tlt 109 trgt, then higher, swing

958
tlt here looks decent at 104, i added more lil lower 103.98 (also from 100)

954
shorting the UNH here 35.48, mental stop 36.17 (not fixed hard)

951
vxx is an early entry, so stop remains at 15.96 for now,,if stopped will take loss an re-eval,,,trade long still valid at 1667

949
VXX back in swing buy zone now, early entry, at 1662 last), my entry was higher at 1679

929
ES has warning signs but it remains in its 60min uptrend..the 60min support UTL has held thus far,, tho charts suggest a break lower of it, its up till broken

7:11 A.M.
ES under 1132 suggests 1127 and 1122. the rectangle break lower has various targets due to wicks, 8-15 points below 1132. Last ES 1132, down 3 points.  1108 (1107/09) should find support and bounce, then 1099, then 1095. Charts suggest the 1132 break for lower targets.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".