Tuesday's ramblings

606
*meant TLT not tbt

605pm
also, TLT and UBT continue valid longs, for me,,, prefer tlt due to higher volume, ubt is 2x ,, stop 100.37 tlt

548 pm
starter positions, swing, in VXX 16.79 looks good, stop 15.96

423
taking some of this faz off 12.80 afterhours,,,to lock 3% profit on that piece

421
VIX hit 2259, or one cent over its daily 2258 targt from 11am,,,bearish spx

408
sco up 9.5% roi but has much higher targets,,holding longer

401
i'm still trying for 1318ish faz/// 1466ish xlf to sell a small piece of faz AH,, faz profit roi now at 2.5% (from) 12.45 and 3.01% (from 12.38),, 1318 would give about 6.25% roi

349
if 1318 faz is not hit today and in AH tonite,,,trgt moves up to 1344 instead

348
es 1127ish support trendline, target

347
if xlf hits 1465 i'll sell some faz to lock profit,,holding rest

338
lol meant 1466

337
12.66 is the likely lowest low we will get in xlf today (prob not that low,,,but should stall there)

336
also 1318 limit is OVER yest high 1313, so lower would be "easier" to sell,,, keeping 1318 for now

335
about 2.8%///4% profit from .45 or .35 entries at 1280


334
faz rigth at 1280 here is good spot to sell some faz too

334
still like 13.00+ for sell faz,,,13.18 limit

333
1475 xlf...1275 faz targets were rjust hit from few hours ago

330
XLF has a bear harami, almost  dark cloud cover it closes near here daily,, depends on if they push it higher into the close or not,else a diff


pattern
 
 
327
until


bonds fall,,spx cant sustain

upmoves,
 real


money for equities will come

out of gold and tlt,,, so still bearish on spx
 
 
316
next entry could be higher or lower than 1525 , just depends on charts when setup comes

315
still no "add more sco" for oil short swing,,,running with 14 and 15.02 entries for now, 1524 last,, been waiting 3 days for right setup to add, none found yet

243
ES is right on its resistance uptrend line ,,,watching reacton

231
we could gap down tomorrow, eve star type thing, on qqqq

228
that was the fomc headfake up,,now looking for down prob thru rest of day,,

217
no tech damage to faz,,,xlf only managed one cent over resistance

215
es headfaked up,,the real move is likely down,,first move usually wrong

213
TLT more interesting to watch atm than ES, tlt going down,,,if it continues down after 215, then up would later be expected in tlt

210
TLT remains up 0.72% today,,treas bonds

153
under 1484 xlf bearish,,could getr bullish over that, last 1480

148
60min vix still climibign to its 2258 trgt last 2230

142
es should hold 1126ish first try

141
es 1126.50 is horiz asupport plus also uptrendline support, ES, so 1126/27 target

139
aud/usd looks similar to es but it would put es support lower at 1130 instead of 1133...aud/usd support is lower than ES support

135
r they dropping ES here, so they headfake move 1 up after fomc announce, then down? not tradeable strat,,,,just thoughts

133
1475 xlf if hit should give 1275ish faz

131
nervous faz could exit at 1.5% profit here

124
with the 1482 break lower, xlf broek marginally its desc bear triang,,watching for wedge or downchannel to form

119
thus far the xlf 3min DTL has held, with 4 touches to it and move lower after each touch

113
i'll sell part of faz swing at 13.18 limit if filled, far from there now at 12.62

108
just hit 1480 trgt, 1475 next

105
desc triangle xlf meausres under 1475 horizon support,,,so 1480 remains trgt, then 1475

1257
i could exit faz swing from yest for 1% profit ("get out"),,but will stay,,,faz targets much higher

1242
xlf 3min desc triabgle

1236
60min ES has a mini dbl top, both rounded tops

1227
still have swing short, but do have some limit sells on faz 1265, 1278, for a few shares if its hit in the reaction fomc

1226
intraday, until broken over R,,, ES is in 3min and 15min downtrend

1135
vix at 2225, trying to test yest high 2258ish

1131
faz 1264 trgt, last 1256, first intraday trgt

1130
that down move, was largest 3min vol bar of day for es

1125
uh oh,,,xlf cracked 1488, but only marginally,,,watching carefully here now if sustains, and 1480

1114
charts say 1488 should break lower, but given fomc changes things

1114
woundnt be surprised to see xlf hold 1488 until 200pm,,,but also not sure if it can sustain and hold another test,,should be interesting

1059
if 1488 xlf cracks then 1480 trgt,,,doesnt sound like a lot but the 1488 is impt pivot for bulls

1029
vix in 60min bull consold, bearish spx,, dojis at the start of a trend are often continuation,,, dojis after a sustained move are often reversals,,,vix 60min just starting up

1013
xlf should hold here on first suppp test and give lil bounce,still like swing short

1011
nervous new swings short xlf would exit here breakeven,,i remain swing short xlf,,long faz etc

1001
autotrader prog trade, took faz 12.38 swing for multihour /swing hold/ scalp combo, 25% starter size,,,stop under low of day

958
1488 xlf is the key,,, over that bullish, under bearish,, xlf testing the area now, and may test for hours

944
if VIX 60min closes near here, then vix will have 60min bull morn star (bearish spx)

941
as mentioned yest, 60min bear diverg xlf spx developing but not baked yet so sideways higher or lower are all viable

940
xlf 15min has bear diverg/dbl tops in rsi stoch, bullish faz

930
and TLT just gapped up this morn

928
tlt, gold, and vix strength are "warning signs" for bulls,,,no confirmations just warnings to be unbiased

927
watch bonds, tlt,,,, treas/bond investors are the most conserv,,,if THEY start buying stocks it would be bullish,, right now, gold and bonds tlt are holding steady, even green yest

912
for the


last year, since oct, spx in bear

HS,,,even if HS does not

collapse, there is no uptrendline

from then,, july 09


UTL broken lower,,sideways is often distrubution


before declines,,march


lows prior utl was also broken

lower
 
856am
Good Morming.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".