tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)

414
conversely, the qqqq doesnt have this massive diverg,,, nor appl

413
SPY has a massive bear divergence between breadth and price on daily, price vs MoneyFlow,, price vs OBV,, has a declining trendline MF and also bear HS on MF

402
for swing, holding the other 75% of UNH short,,,and 100% of new intc short

401
also 100% out of sco with profits,,,not good enough of a chart for me,,into tomorrows crude inven report,, i'll prob put some limit orders to trade oil long or short tomorrow, limit orders to catch the volatile wednesday swings :)

357
106.08 TLT,,,taking off 75% of TLT shares here above the stop, not stopped out but want to lock profits b4 end of day,,holding 25% still

350
when charts r like this,,,maybe easier to trade individ high vol stocks in lieu of indices or etfs

340
swing shorting INTC 19.51

334
TLT stop is close here,,,12 cents away,,,12 cents on a $106 stock is v tite but not changing,,,, can always buy bak

330
hmm ok taking 25% of shares off,,,hhoolding other 75%,, profits locked

329
normally would take some UNH off here at its target but ES looks weak,,will wait a lil

328
UNH just hit the .91 target :)

326
VXX swing also looks good here 1674,, i have vxx from higher 1679

323
back in tza 2660, sold 2708, for swing scalp combo

317
i tightened stop in TLT cuz its in a 60min bear rising wedge, but wedge can go up to 107/108,,,but only will stay long if wedge support holds

314
VIX charts suggest higher vix lowr spx,,,, vix charts are always "different" and lil wilder less smooth,, for swings

313
VIX day candle and TZA look same

311
ES 15min bull inv HS with a bear HS as the right shoulder LOL,,take ur pick

309
tightened stop on 75% of tlt to 105.87,, to lock profits

258
taking profits in half of sco here at the stall,,low volume grr

256
exiting TZA scalp for tiny profit/breakeven,,,wtaching other better trades,,,to many to watch,, sco scalp up 1.3%,, holding tza swing tho

253
i'm going to take some more TLT profits today and just run with 25-50% swing position, try to buy back tomorrow or other days ,,, should give 2.5%ish  7.5% roi profit

249
nervous tza could exit here with small profit from "bad entry" earlier,,i'm holding

246
cuz the next lower target is 34.00ish UNH :) from 3492

245
will not auto cover  25% of  unh at .92 trgt,,,will watch reaction

231
UNH 3492 trgt to cover 25% shares from 3550

230
UNH short continues bearish :)

228
there is a 2x or 3x etf for treas instead of  TLT 1x but i like tlt higher vol,,,others have low vol, so i just buy more shares in tlt to mimimic 3x

224
still holding TLT,,,at high of day now,, watching for 106.47 next today trgt, last 106.28

156
i might exit sco today depending on way it closes,,,i will only hold into the crude report tomorrow if charts looks right ,,, right now the chart is too indecisive for me to hold but may change b4 close

141
looking for tlt to test its HOD and make higher hi over .24, last 106.16,, for 106.47 trgt

129
the sell alert gave a stage 1 sell prog for 3 points,,, sell prog 2 should give 1132 es

121
else 1141, 45, 48 but bias still down to me

120
if 1137 es breaks then 1131 trgt intraday

110
TLT hit the 106.20 trgt ,,,hit .24 and pulled back,,,still see higher TLT up to 107/107.50 (not all today)

105
TLT just made new high of day,,,still long tlt swing

104
2nd sell alert triggered but ES not moving,,,still watching, next 3-20 minutes

103
the TLT has just cleared .90 mentinoed this morn,,,watching to see if sustains over,,,if so higher TLT over 106/10650 /107 and lower spx

1256
sell program alert for spx, es rut xlf at ES 1140 at 94% confid

1255
83% now... usually 93% confid is enough

1253
61% means software "thinks" a sell alert is coming but hasnt yet

1253
. 61% confid sell alert,,,not high enough

1251
bias is sell until buy alert comes

1251
we may get a buy prog or sell prog alert in coming minutes,,, software suggests one is coming

1242
aapl is red today,,,watching to see if former 287 support is conv to resist or not

1222
10min TLT bull pennant

1221
testing only,,,needs to pierce it higher,,thus far .90 R holding,,,still see break over it

1219
TLT is testing that .90 now,,,watching reaction,,,

1206
TLT 106.20 trgt on a break sustain over .90 intraday

1204
at 10:47AM, mentioned TLT over .90 should send spx, es down,,,its at .83 now,,,watching for break and sustain over .90 (or not)

1200
15min SCO forming bull diverg macd rsi

1158
sell program alerts for spx rut, es 1139

1153
a 15min ES close under 1139.10 would confirm the bear shoot star and give a sell signal under that method

1142
xlf puts bak down at 17 cents look good here

1127
UNH short continues to fall :)

1124
es sell prog alert still in effect, watching to see if it triggers lower prices, alert issued at 10:34AM valid to 11:31 AM, watching for "time extension"

1104
in tza at 1800

1057
xlf v bearish,,it broke 1439 lower, xlf puts ROI at 22% profit here but holding longer

1047
over TLT 105.90 should send spx down, last 105.75 but theres R at .90 (below the 106.10 high)

1034
sell prog alert, es 1134, for 3-57minutes, to test low of day, or make lower low


1021
software thru a stall alert,,,poss sell alert mini program at .75 es

1020
also horiz 3min ressist

1019
ES algo resist here,,, at 1130.75

1016
106.50ish trgt tlt b4 the 107/10750

1010
a slow rise, in TLT, is actually more bullish tlt (spx bearish), at this point, intraday,,, as it will stretch the BB 60 min rather than a quick poke thru them

1008
ES should make a new low, or test the LOD, by 1045 AM

1004
taking 25% of TLT shares off here to lock profit,,, 2% profit, or 6% via a 3x etf

1003
the TLT HAS PIERCED OVER 106.00 AS EXPECTED,,,,now watching to see if it can sustain,,,v bearish for spx, trgt now 107.03--107.50

1001
there it is, sell progr, stage 1, kicked in 4 min after alert

959
ANOTHER sell progr alert ES but after 10AM safer to trade

955
ES sell program alert,,,but tricky at this 955AM time, at es 1133.50

954
1135 short could work but its just before 10AM, so

950
1137 ES


reasonable risk if es getst there,  ES should go down again tho b4 1137, if it even gets 11137

947
TLT stalled at 105.78 or 2 cents below the 105.80 stall target

945
SCO trgt 1550ish approx,,,will watch reaction there, last 1496

942
no long scalp setup spx,,just stall

942
SPX es should begin to slow, stall, lil bounce around here,,, slice lower would be v bearish without stall

941
Wedn is crude oil report, so make take partial profits in SCO today, unsure,,,tomorrow could be wild oil swings :)

939
TLT number to watch: still watching for break over 106, last 10570,,,stall at .80 expected

935
sco up, oil down, sco upper targets (oil lower targets) still valid and the same

935
UNH held 25.20, expected to hold on first test,,i see a break lower in UNH, still have swing shorts

932
TLT still strong,,,spx mkt not going up until TLT falls,,, yest TLT made its daily high target, see what it does today

923 AM tues
good morn

832 pm monday
On the spx daily chart, notice that it hit the 62% fib, pulled back, then went OVER the 62% fib (at 1143).  IF/WHEN the spx closes BELOW that fib that was pierced higher, a sell signal triggers (close under 1143), under one fib trading system. Some use an intraday penetration (instead of a close) to take an initial position.

1175/81 would be the upper target of resistance if spx doesn't go below 1143 in coming days.

So under 1143 or up to 1175/81, then I see SPX down.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".