Monday ramblings

634
The previous bullish 3/5 methods pattern was not confirmed, and that bull pattern it is likely invalidated, I mentioned earlier that it was a weak pattern

633
been watching TLT 20 year treasury, it closed strong today, hit daily target 1 but not stretch target 106.00, spx sold off near the close,, as we expected at 1:57 posting

Daily SPY has bear harami candles, as well as bear mMm macd hist pattern,,,both require a close below the daily lows to confirm,,also, the harami bear is not a "strong" bearish pattern because the red candle is not that big



223
if ES 60min makes a higher hi,,,over 1149---watching for one of those broadening formations to dev

210
TLT ability to close over 106.00 still valid, last 105.25

209
UNH now has a setup to poss close under that impt 2519 support

208
UNH sell prog alert

203
idk if it comes, but a UNH close today under 35.19 would be v bearish in unh,,,i remain short from 3550

157
still see lower es spx for now,,,last 1144 es, for swing

144
ES testing this intraday 1142,,,see if bulls can hurdle,,,still on swing sell

122
notice that TLT 15min is moving up, while ES 15min moving sideways,,, TLT wil often exert its pressure later,,,generally leads,, tlt leading up suggest lower spx later

118
IF the TLT does not decline to 104,,,is v bullish tlt and bearish  spx,,,even at 104, tlt still bullish, last 105.43

116
TLT hit 105.44,,,so i consider the 105.50 target as hit,,, and see over 105.50 next

115
75% confid now on sell alert

111
not sure if it comes,, but another sell program warning is forming in ES, not baked yet,,,this one stronger than last 2

109
ES push up here,,,looks like headfake,,,watching,,,still on selll

108
1141.50///1142 would likely hold on first test of it,,,if es gets up there

106
while ES under 1142, v bearish intraday for lower low

103
es sell program re-afirmed, from 12:35 PM

101pm
tlt at 105.22,,,, close to its 105.50 daily trgt,,,with 106.00 possible

1248
volume is very low today

1242
any bounce xlf, to me, is short rally vs buy bounce long, for now

1242
XLF is testing near its low of day,,weak

1235
Sell program warning alert here,,,similar to last 2 this morn, tho lil weaker, es  1140

1232
ES scalps from 114050 could take 1points here, but ES shuold go lower still

1231
still no long


scalp on ES,,,swing short/daytrade

short signals still here,,i likely will not scalp anythinbg long, as the 60min remains bearish, even if a scalp long setup comes

1220
ES scalp pullbak likely here at 1140.50

1217
idk if it comes today, but TLT does have a setup that would allow 106.00 today, from 105.25,,,if TLT closes over 106, would be v bullish TLT,,,, normal behaviour would be pullback in TLT b4 106, so over 106 today would be v bullish tlt (bear spx)

1211
TLT continues bullish today,,,thats bearish for spx,, TLT 105.25 new high of day

1204
cancelling tza orders limit to take profits,,,will do manually on reactions

1127
i will sell 25-50% of tza scalp when TLT hits 105.50,,,last 105.00

1125
SCO scalpers from earlier this AM could take 2% profits now, day would hold longer

1122
ES might form a falling wedge in the 3min,,,watching for that

1121
theres a "sideways, scalp long setup" forming in ES but its only 50% done, suggests more down b4 scalp long,,, day short signal still on

1120
tza scalpers could take some profit here 2705 from 2670, swing daytrades would hold longer

1116
there it is, low tested and broken, before 11:25AM trgt time

1108
*62% confidence,

1108
es testing the 1140.50 prior 3min low support here but charts say 50% chance it could break on first try test (usually doesnt break first but lower % here than normal for bounce)

1104
ES should test its LOD again, in 1 -21 minutes and expecting a break lower after initial lil bounce,,setup triggered




1059
theres a setup coming for test low of day and break lower in 1--21 minutes BUT the setup isnt baked yet,,,not triggered yet

1052
ES sell program signal re-affirmed,,, still see lower LOD

1050
ES pullbak here expected for scalp, at 1142.50

1047
1460 sco limit buy could work if filled, last 1471, or 1471 here could work too, tho 1471 here is early entry

1019
UNH 35.50 short doing well,, 35.19 trgt first support, last 35.27,,,prob stall at 35.19 then lower

1017
WOW right at 10:17AM target mentioned below,, ES just




tested its LOW,,,exactly on time,, sell program will break the low if it triggers as expected
 
 
1013
ES sell program signal,,,signal only not actual program triggered, at ES 1141

1009
in tza 2670

1009
in faz here 1297

1005
SCO now going for a more bullish daily engulfing (currently piericng candle or curr oil bear dark cloud cover)

1002
curr charts suggest spx could stay oversold 5 more hours and go lower tho

1000
ES should break or test its LOD by 10:17 AM, if current setup triggeres

958
\bearish dark cloud cover daily in oil here, thus far (of course needs a close near here)

955
my first swing target, 30 days timefram,,,spx 1060--1080 unless the 1153 broken and held higher, else we hit



1175 spx,, then down to same

targets
952
sco scalpers from 1450 would take 1477 profits here for 1.86% profit,,, swings holding

948
prog autotrader has a limit order to short the xlf at 1460 if able,, and faz long 1280

946
at the moment, TLT remains on a "hold long all day" setup, 82% wins prog autotrade algo

945
an xlf close under 1448 would be bearish, strong bear harami,

933
watching TLT,,,it likely will make over 105.50 before ES hits 1117 lower,,, if TLT gets over 105.50 it could spell trouble for spx, for swings

928
i still like TLT long

Pre-mkt
its very interesting that ES is up 1.25 points right now,, BUT the TLT IS ALSO UP at the same time, trading pre-markte 104.85, over the 103.50 friday close. this warns of possible lower spx and spx tiredness

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".