Wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

401
hmm the vix gapped up near close

354
ES is coiling now,,,could go either way, but down after the close ES could happn


351
i still have the hold swing shorts from 1102 spx,,,and tza hold swing from 3127 and faz hold swing setups

345
3238 trgt first

344
3247 not


likely...stretch trgt
 
 
343
3247 sell some sds if able,

321
es has mini bear HS 3min

315
problem for bulls is that xlf spx tna russel do not have charts like qqqq

314
watching this ES bear inv hammer 15min

300
xlf has again broken lower, b4 spx too

259
could change in a newyork minute but MktMakers positioned to sell rally right now

257
xlf 1435 should give 1430, last 1437,, else no lower in spx xlf,,, lower bias

236
xlf is backtesting its breakdown now,,,watching to see if the R holds or not

214
under 1099 v v bearish,,, over 1099 could still be netural bearish

213
watch 1099 ES intraday--its prior support converted to resist, and key # since before 9AMN

203
xlf 1430 is holding support but lots of pressure on it here...last 1430

200
notice how the 1099 has now become Resist, until broken higher

158
from 11am, 15min chart setup step 1 met: close under the 1099 es,,, but its marginal close and needs followthru to confirm,,, but the warning triggered

149
if xlf breaks 1430,,,then v bearish,,,last 1433

145
taking 25% shares of shorts off here,,(scalp shorts) to lock profits,,,holding the swings

144
the xlf gave a nice 10min warning of this es pullback, as i posted

143
heres es at the algo supp and 15min support "close below bears" support signal, from 11AM ish

134
if xlf is leading,,,it's broken down on 3min chart.....b4 the spx,,,and xlf generally leads not follows

130
sds has 10min rsi bullish failure swing ,,,bearish for spx

112pm
*1098.50 not 1089.50

111
hmm now algo support has also formed ES 1089.50,,,v near that 1099 "close below on 15min chart level"

103pm
mild sell program signals forming in ES

1253
now the ES is putting a poss v tradeable bear diverg 3min

1204
UNG continuing on schedule, still looking for 1pmish breakout

1156
ES "spike down" 1096 target (could spike and bounce fast, would need limit order to cover short), or 109625

1149
60 min ES has 2 toppping tails on its candles,,,bulls need to repair it, but a close under the candle low is needed to confirm the tails

1142
watching the 15min close under 1099 signal still from 1129 AM on ES,,,bearish if that happens, bullish intraday until it gets it,,,expecting the lower close

1129
ES bullish as long as 15min closes are over 1099, but expecting a close under 1099 to signal downside after such

1100
progr trader just doubled its position,,,50% size now, short spx

1055
UNG trying to break its coil a bit early here, 648 last,,pullback would still be ok,,, bigger move expected after 1pm

1051
autotrader just entered short spx at 1100,,, but starter position,,may add more later,, spxu 3050  sds 3200

1050
auto program trader close to shorting spx "for the day" but no entry yet (other entries were personal not autotradr)

1044
MCD is tired,,,KO still strong for now,, mcd  ko r part of the "dow barometer",,,when they weaken the dow should fall

1038
UNG "should" break today, after 1pm, if current velocity is maintained constant


1036
UNG is forming a v nice bull coil...expecting it to break and hit its 2nd swing trgt--already hit the first one

1031
no "add more shorts" setup yet, but close

1030
SPX is v near its daily DTL here at 1100,,, dtl resist at 1102,,,could pop a lil higher over it,,,or turn down here under it,,,either way, seems a reasonable spot to short

1023
then, we can let the 15 n 60 work together (both up if the setup comes) with a bounce from the 15s into the 60s

1022
maybe when ES stoch on 15min gets under 20 a good "day long" opp will present with decent pop potential...no setups yet

1018
es 3min bear diverg forming

1015
adding more shorts spxu sds 32.01, ES 1099ish

1014
109950 es is prior high resist

1011
ES has a hangman and inverted hammer both bearish forming on 15min

1010
added more sds spxu

1008
SPXU near breakeven here,,still valid trade

956
charts suggest a setup "possible long all day hold later" but "scalp the 3 minutes short until long signal comes"

953
program trader may try an "all day long" at SPY 109.90 limit, last 110.12, but no confirmation yet,,,only half baked setup,,

950
shorted spx at the resist 1431 xlf,,,watching if xlf holds R or breaks higher

947
sds scalp 32.16,,, 3075 spxu

936
xlf needs to get over 1431,,,last 1425

934 AM
i still have a setup saying "hold swings short" from friday


938 PM
I continue to watch MCD and KO on the DOW. Though I've exited my long positions therein, if these stocks begin to falter, it's an ominous sign indeed for the DOW and by extension the SPX. Right now, MCD and KO have held their gains, but the 60min chart suggests that even KO and MCD are getting tired and "need" a pullback.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".