Looking for TZA swing entry, maybe DXD, QID

Tuesday update, 6:32 PM
Still don't see a valid trade. Charts have possibly become more bullish. I see no swing entries here, either long or short, yet. More analysis needed.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday
I'm seeing a good swing start to setup in the TZA, if the charts continue as they are now.  Looks like the TZA might need to go down to 12.36, 12.28, or 11.89 area.  I'll be watching this over the next 1-2 days for possible entry. After the decline ends, I expect the TZA to reverse up to 13.40 and break higher to 15.03 and 16.30, 16.99.

The current swing target is 14.73 (after entry, have not entered yet). We might get the entry tomorrow or Wednesday.

Also, I'm considering short the DOW via long DXD, as well as long QID (short QQQQ).

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

monday ramblings / ES Futures Sunday night, Monday pre-market

Trades are in BLUE when I have time to do so

3:44
Sold the small sso piece (25%) for .79 vs .39

318
no tza swing... i'll wait to re-enter...its gone for now

316
out of last 25% tza for now.... :(

309
grr tza hit my .03 stop.....took a loss on that one from 1306 to 1303 (bought in 2 pieces)...all other trades today were profit, tho small
3pm
tza stop 13.03 for 75% of position
248
tza has slight upward bias to me, for now, at 1308

229
spx looks headed down in next 10mins. last1089.58
210
poss 3min bear HS spx

201
looking for tza to test 1315. last 1305

154
added some more tza here at 1302. the last 1302 tza is an attempt to play a bull diverg

146
tza seems a decent swing...i will prob keep some overnight, not sure until 330/350pm

144
crouching tiger setting up tza...not yet...early but is there if tza holds 1308. tza looks ready to pop up

134
stopped out of most sso at .47 from .38....profits are small but steady today...tough day for daytrades

133
sso stop .47 on 75%

131
.57 hit exactly and backed down...needs to hurdle that/// this stall is normal, expected....

130
sso 3657 should give a pop higher. last .52
125
sso stop .40 now on 75%. paid .38. either it holds here and breaks or i'm not interested ....
120
nervous sso would exit here at this .43 gift with a minimal profit...to avoid loss. i will stay in

117
i have a swing short setting up in spx...says "short but wait for proper entry price"... spx 1088

112
133t spx has bear HS in it. still in the sso messy scalp from 36.39. sso last 3638

104
tza wants 1308 or 1273 before bounce up, it seems. last 1319

1245
if sso doesn't hurdle .47 i will likely exit it again, since a bear HS could set up

1243
trying sso again 3639 if filled

1219
stoppped out of rest of tza at .21...took profits on other piece
1218
TRADE: sso stop now at .44 for free trade, just above breakeven

1216
1321 stop in tza for daytrade piece,,,,can always reenter,,,took some profits b4
12:11
TRADE: In SSO 36.42 stop .33

1153
if tza .23 holds we have another daytrade tiger in it
11:47
this is tricky...bear diverg developing in the tza
11:41
TRADE: sold some tza at 13.27

1132
tza .43 sstall expected. last 1334

1131
ES likely to test 1084...last 1087
1127
TRADE: stop for 50% tza at 13.07. last 13.24

1123
more tza 13.19 lim if filled...last 13.22...

1117
tza 133t chart shows an off balance W bullish
11:14
TRADE: In TZA at 13.21. sstop 12.87 for now.
tza trgts 13.47, 13.79, 14.96. pattern suggests 14.23.


10:58
TRADE: stop 2046 faz for all but 25%
faz stop hit...out of all faz except 25%. 20.46 vs 20.31


10:54
TRADE: FAZ stop raised to 20.29, for close to breakeven, free ride.
stall at faz .55 is ok...expecting...

10:43
TRADE: In FAZ now again at 20.31. target 20.57, 20.69

Crouching tiger in FAZ
Poss inv HS bull in FAZ 3min


1036
xlf tiger at 14.50,,,but it's right at xlf R...tricky here

1035
TRADE: stop raised to 72.97 for all but 25% of fas

1033
taking half of fas off here into strength at 73.34
 
1030
TRADE: FAS targets 72.53, 74.13

1027
Crouching tiger bullish developing in FAS....not confirmed yet....needs to hold 72.70 to be valid...

1024
this FAS is too jerky for daytrading, I think i will just buy 3x the # of shares in the XLF instead, next time

1018
Trade: fas stop 72.64 now

1014
es 1097 trgt now...last 1093.75.  charts suggest break higher of the es 1094...for now

1013
Trade: stop raised to 72.47 near breakeven

1000
despite all this whipsaw, charts suggest higher spx in coming 1 hour...last spx1092.50

953
this tape is whipping around here this morn...wide stops needed

9:51
TRADE: In FAS at 72.49/ Target 73.53

936
TRADE: stopped out of faz at swing at breakeven

919
under 1091 es would be very bearish. last 1089.50

914
ES declined from 1092.50 and is at 1089 now, as 838 post suggested

912
poss bear HS in 3min ES, poss bull inv HS in 15min...watching both... i am still bearish

907
trade: swing faz stop moved to breakeven 20.44. i can always re-enter. again, may exit before 20.44 if i see ES moving up.

905
watching for poss bull inv HS to dev in ES 3min or 15min...not formed, just watching.

844am
looks like 1093 ES resist is holding now and should go back down... if it does not hold i will prob close my faz...over 1093 implies 1096/97

8:38
charts suggest that ES should decline in next 5 min. last ES 1092.50.

8:26
TRADE: if ES (premarket) holds over 1092 then I will consider selling the faz swing and buying back later. cost faz 20.44, last 20.76

8:11AM
If SPX 1084 breaks lower to 1080, SPX could see 1072 quickly thereafter, within 5minutes to 6 hours. SPX is over the 1084 now.

7:55AM
The 1098 ES resistance held all night, and futures broke the important 1088 support (from 8pm last nights post) and went to 1084, but have now bounced and are now at 1089.  Bulls need to keep it over 1088. Under 1088 is the bearish scenario (I still favor the bear scenario over next few days).

there is micro R at 1092 ES for the next 2 hours, or until it is broken higher (if it does). Under 1092 and exp under 1088 would be bearish intraday

9:59
Futures are up now, but let's also remember that it's early in the night session, and anything can happen, especially when Europe opens. They could easily go back down, or break the 1098 higher.

9:40
bull and bear scenarios that could unfold in the coming days/weeks: I favor the bear scenario with a move to 1080 then 1050ish, as the charts look now.

Bullish scenario: There is a potential bullish pattern in ES that points to a target of 1127, if the resistance zones are hurdled by the bulls.

Bearish scenario suggests for SPX 1085, 1080, 1050ish, 1029, 950ish (exact targets not calc here)

1098 is key R for overnight, downside supports are 1088, 1078, 1067

9:35
To clarify:

i did buy some faz on friday, but noted that we could go up... the spx is in a rectangle range. i entered faz with idea of holding it, in case we don't go up. the ES did some technical damage to the downside that has not manifested itself fully in the spx. Right now, spx is stressed with a downside bias, tho it might bounce up first.  That is, right now, to me, the charts suggest that SPX will break out of the rectangle range, and that the break will be to the downside, based on hourly daily weekly charts. it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

8:02pm
ES futures up 4pts at 1094. the 1098 is key R for overnight, downside supports are 1088, 1078, 1067

more udates later with targets.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

9:50
Trade: fas at 72.51 limit if filled to buy

TRADE: SWING FAZ at 20.44 stop 18.96

Trade:  Swing... bought FAZ at 20.44. Stop 18.96 for now. faz could test 20.30, even break and go lower, but i'm fine with this for now.

5:02PM update:
Part of the reason for the entry on Friday was that the ES futures, pre-market, hit 1067, but recovered higher before Friday's open. So the 1067 is vulnerable to a re-test, although of course prices could move higher first. A look at the SPX will not show such a severe break of 1085, since it held in the SPX. But in the ES, that 1083 was broken and dropped to 1067 before recovering.

----

I have added another swing trade to my previous ones (still open).

On Friday's Daily Ramblings post, I noted that I entered FAZ at 20.44 stop 18.96 for now. Am putting it in a separate post here to make it easier for me to track.

Trade:  Swing... bought FAZ at 20.44. Stop 18.96 for now. faz could test 20.30, even break and go lower, but i'm fine with this for now.

Is the FAZ an early entry? Will Monday's prices rally (causing FAZ to drop)? I don't know, but the charts are suggesting lower SPX and higher FAZ in the coming days ahead. Unless the charts change, any SPX rally is an opportunity to re-short or add to shorts. Charts suggest that Monday could go either way, so I've entered here in order to participate.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Expecting lower SP500 and financials

There are many bearish signs pointing to lower prices in the SP500, Russell 2000, and Financials. I don't know if Monday will rally up, or if the decline will continue without a rally, we will have to wait and see.

But, the charts are suggesting SPX break of the 1085, regardless of whether we get a bounce up on Monday / Tuesday or not. The bulls can avert this, but it will require an aggressive move on their part. Lower highs and lower lows are starting to paint on the intraday charts. The weekly and daily charts also are throwing out warning signals of lower prices ahead.

It is with this in mind that I bought FAZ at 20.44 on Friday.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings (and Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures)

Comments likely will be sparse today, taking the day off.

1:26
technically spx did not gap down today (barely missed it) but the SPY did gap down. I differentiate between an "open below yesterday's close" and a "gap down".  Gap down requires an open that is less than yesterday's low, not yesterdays close.

1:04
This is interesting. The SPX cash shows that SPX remains in the rectangle range with only a minor violation of its support, BUT BUT the ES overnight shows a breach of its range support of 1083 down to 1067, back to 1098. the ES could be forming a bull inv HS but a decline to 1081/84 is likely before a breakout higher, if it breaks higher.

If 1083 does not hold, then 1075/72 ES, then 1067 is likely again on break of the 1075/72.

The upside target would be 1107 on a breakout using the inv HS

1:03
vix closed over 24.44 at 24.73 though...that is a close over crucial support

12:59
Taking some profits in faz I bought earlier.  sold 21.10 faz vs 20.44 for 3% in 2 hours

12:51
A VIX close over 24.44 would be bullish for VIX (bearish spx)

12:39
A close at or under 1097 would confirm the bearish eve start 3 day candle pattern, with 1095 or 1086 even more bearish.

11:43
Trade:  Swing... bought FAZ at 20.44. Stop 18.96 for now. One dollar less that the 21.44 that I sold it for. (The exact one dollar is a co-incidence, not a trading strategy).  Might be able to get a better price on FAZ, but I'm taking the day off. This is a swing, so good enough.



faz could test
20.30, even break and go lower, but
i'm fine with this for
starters...re-investing profits from
pre-mkt sale



11:17
As expected, the ES recovered, hit the 1087, and went to 1095 target. Last 1096. Targets still 1095, 1103, 1107.

8:50
even if ES recovers back up, i still expect more downside in the coming hours, days. the up targets above are for the retracement.... definitely the charts suggest down again. I will be looking to add to swing short positions, at the right prices (hopefully right price)

8:44
To get higher to 1087/beyond, ES will need to hold 1078 (preferably 1082), then up to 1087, back down to 1082, then up past 1087 to other targets. 15min charts do suggest a pullback if 1087 is hit, before higher.

Conversely, as long as resistance holds, ESP the 1084, then ES is headed back down. Right now, charts suggest that the bounce up from 1067 is not finished, but it all depends on the support/resistance and levels.

8:38
ES backed off the 1084 R after briefly piercing it, but still charts do suggest another pop up in ES to the 1087... The 1084 is going to be tough to crack, unless the bulls do it soon.  It was the prior rectangle support, now trying to be converted to R.  The longer the bears keep it under 1084, the harder it will be for the bulls to hurdle it.

8:33

Trade: selling half of faz here at 21.44 from 18.65 for profit of 2.79 or 14.95%


8:25
If ES decides to move up: short term fibs: 1084 is 38% fib, 1094 is 62% fib, 1102 (72%). It is interesting that the fibs, levels, and pattern targets all point to similar numbers.

8:13am
ES at 1084 now, barely marginally overcoming the 1083 on a try for 1087. Charts suggest that the 1087 will be hit. If 1087 is achieved, then 1007 is the next target. It sounds crazy, but ES could get the 1007. Would need 1087,1095, 1103, 1107. Could be a volatile day. Of course, back down to 1067, 1060, 1053 is also possible. its all about support and resistance.


5:33
V pattern in 15min suggests a move up to 1087 test if 1083 hurdled. last ES 1081.

4:51 AMES futures are at 1079, down sharply 32 points right now or 2.82%, having made a low of 1067. That important 1083 support level (the prior rectangle support) was broken.  Now, let's see if that 1083 support has been converted to resistance or not. Can the ES hurdle back above it? It tried once this morning to hurdle 1083 and failed, but that's expected on the first try.

There is a bullish divergence in ES that suggests a move back up to 1103 if it manifests itself if 1083 can be hurdled. Watching the 1083, and also the possibile formation of an Inverse Head And Shoulders or a vertical move up.

For now, 1083 and 1067 are key support and resistance numbers, followed by 1103.

TRADE: Unfortunately I closed out my TZA swing on Wednesday to reduce risk, BUT I still have the FAZ from 18.66.  I likely will seel FAZ around 20/20.20 if able and the re-enter on a pullback. This is the second time recently that I've played FAZ from around 18.65 to 20.10 ... the chart shows a clear rectangle in the 60 min with 21.28 and 21.83 as next targets.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

403
SUMMARY
100% winning or breakeven daytrades today. Did take a loss on the TZA swing but that was covered by daytrade profits. Ended green.

400
on friday, or monday SPX IS IN DANGER of a bear evening star confirmation... wouldn't take much to get one

358
spx looks like it has some unfinished business on the upside...maybe just test prior high,,, futures overnight could change all that

352
tza doesnt look like it will make the .97 target...it did make new HOD but only by 2 cents

342
well tza did make a new high as i thought, but i was unable to sell it. i was stopped out breakeven.

337
tza "should" get another pop today...but its right at R at hod

334
tza stop .79 not .77 now

3:27
crazy...both my sso and tza moving up same time here

3:21
poss spx bear HS 3min formin

2:57
.89 stop on all but 10%

2:54
spx can fall at any minute,,,but charts say it has more unfinished business on the upside. last 1110.5

2:53
W target 3814,, other target 3807

2:52
sso trying to break the W in 133t now

2:50
stop .87 on all but last 10%

2:41
changed my mind i'll


keep 10% into the close on sso...rest

is stop .82
 
2:35
sso 3797 should bring 3807

1:41
sso is in an upchannel, with support line around .76

128
stop raised to .76 for all of sso. last .80. eithr it breaks .82 or im not interested

125
if a second test of sso .82 fails then i will likely exit this thing.

119
sso stop .74 on 75%

115
37.82 sso should give 37.90 next. last 3780. the sso is a contratrend intraday trade so dont know how much we will get from it

1:07
TRADE:  crazy...theres crouch tiger in sso so i'll try it...in at 3777. scalp only. dont know how much this will pop, if at all. stop 3770

1:01 PM
TRADE: update: took small loss on the swing (3 cents) but the swing loss more than offset by the tza daytrades. I could keep the swing, but trying for a better price.

1258
TRADE: SWING SOLD AT NEAR BREAKEVEN IN TZA. will look to re-enter....currently FLAT except for small 25% daytrade piece. swing sold near breakeven

1254
selling 50% of tza at the market at .82.  i think spx might pop up a little here as its at the 1008...so exited

1248
spx 1008 test is impt here tho

1246
.80 not .81

1246
stop 11.81 on some of the tza...good stop for 50% of a small position

1242
tza pattern target is 12.01 / 11.98 after getting 1184, 1188, 1198, 1201

1241
tza stop on 75% raised to .77

1235
tza 11.80 trgt hit second time here

1230
tza stop changed to 1173 from 1174. breakeven.

1221
this would be a good spot to enter a tza swing to "try it out".... setting a stop... the charts are starting to form a nice swing short signal, though no official swing setup yet for me, but forming nicely

1216
tza pattern target is 12.01 / 11.98

1213
tza needs to get over these R: 1176, 80, 84, 88....each could be a target to sell.. i know they r close, but its also a cheap stock so a few pennies represents more % move, and it is what it is

1212
tza bull W continues to form in 133t

1211
stop raised to .74 on 75% of tza daytrade from .73

1207
bulls are struggling here...look at all those small candles on the 15min spx...and they are small within a narrow range day... its up but tough for them,

1202
tza tic chart trying to form bull W....not finished, under construction

1157
wow....tza "should" be breaking higher here, if not then i may exit, somethings wrong. last 1174

1152
LOL it figures that my .73 tza entry is the exact resistance in tza...keeps stalling there...grr...should break here tho

1148
here is 10min bull


diverg in tza which is why i entered

b4...but they take time to play out

sometimes
 
1136
grr is spx would stall for just 30 seconds on .50 pt lower then tza could break higher. YES tza mirrors RUT not spx, but markets are connected.
1130
90% formed crouching tiger tza now but .70 must hold

1125
poss bull inv HS forming in 2min tza

1122
nervous tza traders could exit here at 1170

1121
tza stops make sense at .63 and .52. mine for daytrade set at .63...will prob see .57 if .63 breaks

1120
sso 3788 and 3786 both hit...higher trgts same as b4

1118
sso 3786 not 3788 is ES 1109...good place to take profit or tighten stop...tho could easy break higher to next trgt.

1115
mental stop tza 1163....

1111
see if sso hits my old targets of 37.77, 3788, 3807, 3827... might get the 3788
(i am out of sso now though...took minimal profits before when stopped out)

1110
tza might not hold 1165...spx breaking higher...though it has done "better" than sds

1102
bought tza 11.73 for daytrade. crouching tiger will form if tza hitss 1177

1056
buy more tza 11.70 limit if filled

1043
tza is in a coil that could chop around until 11:09 AM at current velocity

1030
the TZA stop is wide...if it surges i will daytrade it, then buy back as swing...if it lags i will keep as swing....

1024
stopped out sso at .72 for all except 25%

1022
sso stop .72 on alll but 25%

1019
sold some at .77....i must per my rule to sell at R

1015
this pattern usually should give at least one more pop higher in spx, intraday, within next 30min

1014
2 cents from stopout on 75% sso

1010
spx near R now but charts suggest higher

1006
sso 3777 target was hit 2 times

1005
stop on 75% of sso at 3767, above .63 cost.... if it doesnt hold here i want to get out and re-eval

1003
huge bear shoot star spx but needs confiirmation

9:58
sso looks ready to breakout higher but hardd to tell since its at the crucial 10am volatile hour mark
crouching tiger here...but 10AM could mess it up


939
TRADE: sso targets 37.77, 3788, 3807

938
TRADE:  in sso at 37.63 stop 3730 for now. mental stop at 3752

9:25
ES under 1106 would be bearish, since it represents R from yesterday.

9:23am
ES hit a high of 1111.25 and followed the roadmap below. It was able to finally overcome the 1107. A pullback, at least a small one, of course was expected at 1111

Wedn 7:30 AM

The ES was able to break over 1107, and reached 1109.50, but has been unable to break over the 1109.50 to test the 1111/1112. Last ES 1008.50.


Tues 6pm
Quick update... will perhaps add details later, and perhaps refine the targets below.

Range: 1095 to 1107.
Bullish: Break of 1107 suggests 1111 and 1114
Bearish: Break of 1102 suggests 1100, 1095, 1092, 1089, 1085, 1083


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Crouching tiger setup...???

What is "crouching tiger" that I keep talking about? It's a proprietary setup that I developed that uses a combination of about 20 indicators to confirm the setup. It's a combination of these indicators plus certain chart candle patterns and price patterns. I will try to add more later to this post to explain it... its complicated. The success rate for it working is high, although I do not have actual stats on it. There is both a daytrade and swing crouching tiger. Oftentimes, I like to enter a daytrade using the crouching tiger, and then hold 25% of that daytrade as a swing, if a swing is merited.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)

SUMMARY
Good day today. Didn't calculate exact profits, but had 100% winning trades.

3:57
sold rest of sso at 37.58

3:49
TRADE: TZA swing 11.91
actually.... i'll take a very small tza swing/// 11.91. why? because tza looks like it will close higher than, or at least close to, yesterday's tza high, among other factors.

3:47
this is close to a tza swing setup, surprisingly tza ended up at the 1190 area that i was looking for this morn... but because tomorrow is low vol, i'll wait to initate a new swing.

342
looks like selling into close in spx...close under 1105

340
3754 sso stop .47 is an aggressive trade but could work....i'll pass

339
spx back at 1105...this should determine if the close is up or down...as earlier...over 1105 bull, under 1105 bear

331
obligated to sell all sso except last 25% here at .58...somethings not right... sso 3745 possible down here


326
another crouching


tiger is forming, but incomplete, and

also into the close everything is less

accurate
 
314
if 1105 doesnt
hold here, i will sell all sso except last 25% which i will keep until close. smaller positions, i would take the 3758... i expecct spx to hold and give a bounce up here....spx last 1105.60

spx getting tired...the next bounce might be it for today
313
the spx could form an inv HS in 60min...mini one from last 3 days...half constructed, speculative

255
the ES is following closely the 7:39am chart roadmap from this morn... move up, with lower rsi and macd. although ES didnt make 1112 as suggested this morn...

243
looking for short swing entry but no setup yet. we should get one after spx finishes this business on the upside.

241
intraday charts say spx still has unfinished business on the upside. last 1105

237
sso overshoot would be 3821. don't know how high it will go, if any higher. just ride the wave till it crashes

2:48
if sso hurdles .63 then .77, .88, then 3803, 3821

231
conserv traders would sell here at .55 or tighten stops....spx at resistance here...but i'll hold cuz if res breaks we should get another pop

229
tick chart sso suggests 3786 target

2:28
if sso hurdles .63 then .77, .88, then 3803, 3821

2:26
sso 3805? test high? idk

2:25
got .56 and .57 for that piece.... still have half sso

2:23
grr hit 3756...one cent miss

214
spx should push at least lil higher in next 10min

212
limit 3757 not 3763

2:08
large sso would sell some here at .47, save some for higher....smaller might sell half and keep half stop .27ish ... still have .63 lim order in

2:01pm
widening stops, setting hard in sso, in case of volatility here.

1:57
if not stopped out... still have the limit sell 25% sso 37.63 if able, from 3731... for example, profit would be $300 on 1000 shrs... 600 on 2k, etc. although...this trade is getting old...

137
spx 3min bull inv HS, hull 15min bull flag, coil in the 60.... could go either way...charts suggest at least a pop up,,,idk how high, if at all... 15min bull stoch rsi 15min

1:33
3756 sso next target

1:28
spx backtested this coil twice...slowing it down...did not expect this....

1:27
we've got bull diverg in the spx now...intraday only for scalps. spx last 1103

1:20
ok the .41 stop triggered...filled at .44

1:15
raising stop on 25% ssso to 3741...only 10 cents but scalping that...holding rest for higher smaller positions could set 50% stop at .41. i will hold 25% of sso BELOW breakeven...but not allow it to make the day a loss...loss limited

 1:12
limit sell 25% sso 37.63 if able. stops raised to near breeakeven.

1:11
as expected, spx did a headfake lower, where i bought, followed by the move up....now just need to hold the .30 and break .50ish

1:08
from 11:51am....spx is in a coil and it will around here until about 1:07pm..... unless its velocity changes.

1:05
sso crouching tiger forming...close...

1253
uh oh...the spx is trying to convert the coil into a bear desc triangle...nervous sso would exit here at 3731...i'll stay. as mentioned earlier...there is a bear diverg in sso 3min....so this is riskier...i'm thinking that sso will temporarily ignore the diverg before it manifests itself

1250
sso is behaving....for now....

1245
in sso 37.31

riskier...playing the support in coil...could break against me...but have profits to re-invest
mental stop at 3725 3721.. will prob see 3710 if those break.  order to sell at mkt is in place...only need to press "send"...if it hits near there i prob will

1243
switching to looking


at sso not tna...tna vol too pokey
 
1236
i like tna...looks ready to


breakout...but am holding off cuz there is a bear

diverg off the inv HS
 
1232
looking for possible tna...not yet

1225
not sure if we will see it, seems hard to believe, but an upside breakout in spx suggests 1117 target if it makes over 1112

1220
tza chart..if tza breaks 1295, 1290 prob come right after. last tza 1196. bias down

1219
spx "should have" moved to 1102 by now...its at 1103... of course volume spike could easily change it either way

1215
If SPY closes under 110.56 and preferably 109.50, then it will have a confirmed candle pattern: bearish shooting star. I personally never trade based only on candles, but it's another piece to add to the analysis.

1203
possible bear HS in tza 3min

1202
spx could pull back here to 1101 and stay in the coil. last 1103

1201
spxu not holding 3795ish suggests 3772 3760

1158
i dont like the shortside here for daytrade...last spx 1101

1153
the spx 15min rsi trendline is DOWN...but the spx is challenging it now...see if that holds or breaks

1151
spx is in a coil and it will around here until about 1:07pm..... unless its velocity changes. this coil could break either way. For the coil...spx over 1102 bullish, under 1102 bearish. and we need to beware of a false breakout,backtest, and reversal in the opposite direction.

1142
spxu stall expected at 3836 then 38.42 if it gets there...then next trgt 38.73 if hits .48,,,,,....last 38.23

1137
out of tza at 1206 from 1202...no big profit there. exited because it's not looking "right"....could hit the 11.90... plus i am tired and taking a break from trading here. It's sometimes exhausting playing both short and long in same day.

1130
charts suggesting tza target of 12.24 first, about 3 cents under HOD

1125
tza stop set to 11.97 mental for now...actually should hold the 1203...or i will exit

1118
What is "crouching tiger" that I keep talking about? It's a proprietary setup that I developed that uses a combination of about 20 indicators to confirm the setup. It's a combination of these indicators plus certain chart candle patterns and price patterns.  I will try to add more later to this post to explain it... its complicated.  The success rate for it working is high, although I do not have actual stats on it.  There is both a daytrade and swing crouching tiger. Oftentimes, I like to enter a daytrade using the crouching tiger, and then hold 25% of that daytrade as a swing, if a swing is merited.

1116
crouching tiger hit at 12.02 tza...why i entered. stop could be set at 11.88, 1194, or 1197

1111
tza has crouching tiger trying to setup now...not quite ready yet...for daytrade not swing..yet

1103
charts suggest to wait on any short entry via tza...for now

1058
and now tza is near the 11.90ish swing trade entry target... :) ... but not yet... could see 11.86 or 11.66..not sure the swing setup will actually set itself up today...somewhat bothered by the possible bull diverg in daily RUT before taking short swing.

1049
stop changed to .37 for 50% position, breakeven for rest 25% (sold 25% already)

1048
3656/3661 stall tna expected. last .43

1046
then .42 to .56 tnathen .42 to .56 tna

1043
1.2% tna profits here in 30mins...selling some
 
1039
tna stall .29 expected. last .21

1038
35.99 broke...3638 tna trgt

1037
again, the tna expectations are mild now, its intraday contratrend trade...just watching to see what it can do.

10:31
tna 35.99 stalll expected. last 35.95

10:29
now there is a daily bull divergence forming in tNa...not formed yet, under construction. This pattern looks like it could be a move up in tna, and then down in tna.

10:24
in tna 35.77. mental stops at .63 and .42

10:14
tna buy limit 35.60 if filled. last 35.73...

10:13
considering tna for bounce up only, then convert to tza on reversal sell

10:08
loooking for a swing setup in tza to re-enter as well...prob around 11.90ish. no setup yet. last tza 12.20

10:03
Clearly ES did not hold the important 1103 and has now moved lower.

7:39AM
ES futures are up 2.50. ES is in a 60 min uptrend right now. Charts suggest that it will go from 1106 (current price) to test the 1112 as long as it stays over 1103 and preferably over 1105.  At 1112, ES would either turn lower or make a new weekly high. In either case, a bearish divergence is likely to set up, suggesting a corrective move lower.

Let's see if the ES continues on this roadmap, or decides to change direction. For now, the bias is UP then correction down, to me.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

What next for swings?

I know that this sounds surprising to many, but for now, I will continue to short the rallies UNLESS the charts change, and then I'll join the "long side" club. The "short the rallies" strategy has been profitable (despite the last loss I took from Friday's ill timed entry). Now of course, if the charts change, then I'll switch to bullish.

They could change tomorrow in fact, but for now, that's my strategy. It's been working.

Right now, I do not have any swing positions. I was able to short very close to the high in SPX today (using tza) but I decided to cover the short before the end of day mini-rally. However, because the charts are confused, throwing different signals in various timeframes, I decided to close out the trade in TZA profitably, selling it for profits of 4.5%, 4.07%, 2.70%, and 1.1% (I sold it in 4 pieces).

Tomorrow I will search for opportunities to enter new swings, although I don't know if the setup will come tomorrow or not. If it does not, then I'll wait.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

3:53
sold rest of tza daytrade at .81 for profit and 4.51% profit.  Took the loss on sds at 36.11.  paid 36.99 for sds, sold 36.11 for 2.4% loss

3:31
TARGETS tza: . 1187 1194 1217

3:29
theres tza .76....looking for .85

3:27
tza 1176 should bring .85

2:45
mental stop in sds swing at 35.84...might sell there and take my loss

2:43
if spx closes at 1105, doesn't tell us much, it will leave the charts confused... over or under the 1105 should be more revealing

2:35
tza support at 11.66,,,,1158 1154..but my charts say wait for re-entry in tza

2:31
also the 15min tza slammed into bollinger and pulled back...it could easily push out of it tho

2:25
1176 stop tza hit for 4.07% profit... have last 25% left now


2:22
stop set to 1176 on half of remaining tza for 4.07% profit.  last is 11.78...prob get hit

2:18
tza 1167 emergency stop set...emergency in case it plunges and broker order screens freeze...

2:15
TARGETS tza: . 1187  1194  1217

2:13
tza hit 1183 target exactly and backed down...3min candle... still looking for .83 again then .89

2:12
the fact that spx 1105 has held so strongly suggests that IF it does break (i think it will), it could trigger a quick drop to 1097

2:08
depending on how day ends, i might keep some tza / sds overnight...unsure yet, but the charts could shape upp that way, but not yet.

2:05
TARGETS tza:  11.83, 1189, last 1165. but tza needs .74/.77 to accellerate

2:03
spx is on a near perfect touch of a backtest to its broken dtl...causing this stall....last 1104.7

2:01
TARGET: next sds targt is 36.21

1:58
marginal break of spx 1105...last 1104.70....that doesnt count...yet

1:50
Charts in various timeframes are confused, thrrowing bull and bear signals now. before the charts said 1105 should break...now confused

1:47
my charts say "no new trades here. tighten stops whether long or short"...stops were tightened 10mins ago. bias intraday slightly up right now...but only slight. to me, spx under 1105 bearish intraday, over 1105 bullish (simple view without indicators).


1:41
stop .53 for half of my remaing tza (25% of original buy)... i dont want to give up 2.03% profit

1:35
spx 1105 "should" break this time...but its contrtrend intraday

1:31
my sds is behaving much better than the tza right now

1:29
stop hit.
i should have taken the .71 when i could...hit my target but tried for higher.... half of my position is left now

1:22
tza stop .61 on half of remaing tza for 2.7% profit...other half at breakeven stop; raised from .57 to .61

1:07
tza 11.77 lim sell cancelled... will do mannually..could go higher

TARGETS tza: 11.77, 11.83, 1189, last 1165

1:02
tza stop .57 on half remaining, other half stop breakeven. last .63

1242
lim sell tza 11.77 if filled for 4.1% profit daytrade....last 1170. for tza conserv traders would sell here at .70 or put stop .65

1235
spx did a near perfect touch to its broken DTL on this backtest...see if it bounces higher or if it breaks back below. surprisingly, right now, charts suggest lower spx. last 1106.

1232
tza close to 1177 trgt...last 1170

1231
sds 3596 tfgt hit...next 3603

1228
spx is in danger of stairstepping down to LOD...still bullish spx..but its a red flag. 10/15min chart. but 60min shows a bull flag still

1214
another crouching tiger forming sds ... the last one sprung..last sds 3583. 3596 tiger trgt.

12:08
60min spx bull flag..could see more down first but thats bullish until broken down

12:01
tza .60 (now) or .68 are decent profits... i'll hold mine longer

12:00
tza 1163 trgt hit. 11:50am sds target was 36.03..hit .04, last 36.00

11:58
3583 sds target hit..should get the .87
 
1156
crouching tiger here...see if it springs up in sds. last 1175.

1150
TARGETS sds: 3583/87.... 36.03. last 3574
TARGETS tza: 11.63, 11.77. last 1153

1147
sds trying to break over .80 in 4 minutes

11:31
conservative traders would take profits here in tza at .55 from .30

11:26
removing the lim for tza .63...will do manually..may pop lil higher

11:21
10minute asc triangle in sds suggests poss higher sds (lower spx) with sds target 35.87, close to the prior .83 target

11:15
limit sell some tza 11.61 if filled for 2.7% profit ...last 11.49

11:02
sds 35.72ish is resistance, and 35.83. If .83 can be hurdled then possible backtest of broken trendline at 36.01. inability to hurdle could cause new daily lows.

10:55
sds needs over 35.83 else could make new lows. 3573 last.

10:50
selling small piece of tza for 1.1% profit at mini R at 11.44

10:19
TRADE:  Bought some tza at 11.30.... buying near support.  tza trgt 11.77...unsure if it will make it there

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SDS swing... (updated 8:23 PM)

I'll add more details to this post later... here's what i have now...

Many might wonder why I chose to hold SDS overnight as a swing.

When I look at the chart below, my interpretation is "there is a possible long entry setting up, but the setup is not complete". Also, the long signal, if complete, would be a contr-trend trade with the initial expectation of capturing a bounce only (since the current 60 min trend is down).

Many are expecting a Head And Shoulders to develop. And yes, the pattern certainly suggests that. But it is speculative, since it is not even formed yet.

So, lets speculate some more. What if the HS pattern does not fully develop? Notice that there is also a down channel in th 60min chart below (a smaller down channel inside the larger one). That could also be what's happening. Further, we might have seen a minor break of a bear flag, and then a backtest of the break (when SPX moved up later Friday).  The backtests are quite common. That is why I decided to keep my SDS over the weekend.

If the HS does not develop, charts suggest a possible move to 1067 directly from here (see chart 2).

Bearish:

Notice that there is also a down channel in th 60min chart below (a smaller down channel inside the larger one)

The RSI is pointed up, but notice also that it needs to clear 2 levels of resistance (2 trendlines)

The last 2 hourly candles are bearish (have tails)

Bullish:
The stochastic is curled up, suggesting an attempt at higher prices. MACD histogram is rising, trying to cross 0 line

RSI pointed up

If SPX gaps up on Monday, it could gap up above the mini channel resistance line.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, even if SPX goes higher to about 1100/04, I still expect a move lower to 1085 then 1070, 1050 and thinking down to 921ish. So the SDS is another "early" entry (just like the TZA, that worked) for that expected move. I was daytrading the sds on Friday, and I didn't want to sell it at Friday's prices. I think that even if SDS goes lower (higher spx) on Monday that the SDS will still go a little higher before lower, allowing me to sell at a better price. If not, then I'll continue holding it as a swing. I hesitate to go long on any swings, since that's a contra-trend trade (to me) for now.

Chart 1

Chart 2
Note the similarities in the areas of the chart shaded in black

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings (and Thurs eve / Friday pre-market ES Futures)

Friday:

3:49
holding the sds overnight.
3:17
mental stop .94 in sds
2:57
poss head shoulders spx 3min

2:52
TRADE ok i'll pay 36.99...filled on sds ...stop .86
TRADE target sds first 3708, 3718

2:47
will buy sds limit 3697..not filled yet

2:38
spx bear diverg 3min setting up for possible short...not yet...uncomnfirmed...still forming
2:32
considering sds at 36.88...not yet
2:15
for sds 15min, this can also be considered a backtest of the bull flag
2:10
spx marginally broke the 15min DTL... see if it backetests and pops back down
1:37
In the 10min chart for Thurs / Fri, SPX has formed either a bullish falling wedge or an bear desc triangle (seems more like triangle to me right now). Breakout of the triangle suggests a move to 1064 next.
1:22
still looks like spx will break todays low, to me

1250
i see sds 37.29 next...last 37.18

1237
spx 60min chart...close to getting the 20/50 MA bear cross. spx last 1088
12:33
charts suggest the spx low of day will break

1232
taking some sds here at 37.18. will hold for swing, or sell daytrade if it moves up enough

12:29
stopped out of sso...3744 vs 3737
12:26
sso hit .38, only one cent from my stop...will prob get stopped out\\
 
1217
this pattern in spx usually does UP first then Down...and is time for that today still...observing to see if it happens. spx last 1088.87

12:09
sso stops raised to


36.37, lil lower than

breakeven...mixed signals now and i

dont want to be caught in a drop to

37.28
 
1155
the dbl bot 3min spx mentioned at 1137 has produced the small bounce up here from 1087 to 89. now watching to see if that causes the 10min bull divergence to complete and materiali9ze. spx last 1089

1154
tza could be headed to 1247/43. last 1256
1150
ES looking to backtest up to 1089 then 1091. the 1091 is a level as well as a trendline touch
1149
sso 36.53 expected here. last 36.44
1147
tza short term swings would tighten stops here or sell 50%...longer term swings would hold....this could be it for tza today,,,,it close to breaking out but could fail. usually first try does not breakout. tza last 12.56

1137
spx is setting up a bull diversion in 10min chart...not near finished but setting up...that should cause spx to bounce up. also a double bot in 3min for mini bounce
 
1132
TRADE: target for tza 14.21...will calc other targets higher and lower later.
11:21
i'm out of sds daytrade...but hit 37.24 and backed down... 1cent from the prior limit order i had at 37.23

10:47
TRADE: in sso 36.44
TRADE: sso target 36.87, with intermin targets, and also higher targets...will calc later
10:21
For my next swing short entry, I'll pick up some spxu instead of tza. The tza seems a little better, but the advantage of spxu is i can use the ES futures to guide decision making in addition to the

10:13
out of 100% of sds....made 5 cents or so....basically breakeven.
when the ES 15min and spx 15min are this contradictory, i usually step aside....they will resolve themself...right now i need to trust the ES which says it wants to go higher...spx says lower...i'll trust the ES for now. thats why i got out of the sds. for now.

10:09
raising stop on sds to 37.06 for 50% of position...to reduce risk /# of shares
10:05
cancelling sds limit sell 37.23. that was only for first 10 minutes. will do manually now. sds 37.48ish is possible target, i have not calculated it yet for sure////

9:57
more sds .93
9:41
Will consider more sds at 36.70...not yet
9:25
limit sell sds 37.23...not liking action..will sell and re-enter if merited

9:09
Bought some sds pre-market at 37.07. Just scalping for now, since the price is a little high.

7:25
we got our answer for ES 1086 or 1083...the 1086 did break and hit 1083 which held. i do expect ES 1083 to hold for the day, or at least until a bounce that makes a right shoulder. (Could make right shoulder today, then go down, but more likely not)

7:06 AM
TZA stops can be set below 1174 1133 1127 or 11.13.

Friday 6:49 AM
ES futures tested horizontal resistance at 1095  twice last night, and the R held as expected, causing the ES to decline lower to test horiz support at 1091, which also broke lower as expected. Last ES 1089.

A move to ES 1086 is expected.

1086 is where it gets interesting. The 1086 could hold, and cause a bounce back up to 1095 and then 1099/1101 (if 1095 breaks higher, OR it can break and then go lower to 1082, and then bounce up to 1086 then 1095, 1099/1101.

What does all of this mean? For now, I will be shorting these rallies. The Russell 2000 (short via long TZA) is behaving similarly. I might daytrade the rallies long, but probably will limit swings to the short side.

SPX equiv to ES 1086, 1083 are SPX 1088 and 1085

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Weekly SPX...repeating October's decline?

The candles on weekly 10/5, 10/12, and 10/19 look similar to the ones from last 3 weeks.  In October, on that 4th candle, 10/26, SPX declined to 1033.  Next week marks the 4th candle from the recent pattern, and SPX at 1026 next week is possible.

Conversely, the weekly could be forming an ascending triangle  bullish lol...but other indicators suggest it is weakening

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )

Summary
1. The ES made a penetration of 1105 and 1100 that I expected at 10:19 last night.
2. The TZA swing entered worked well. Took profits on half of it, for about 6.23% profit overnight.
3. Unfortunately I was stopped out of my DDM by mere few pennies, but happens. DDM did hit 42.89, close to my 42.93 target.
4. The DOW did bounce up, as suggested at 1:07 PM
5. DDM hit the 43.16 target exactly 100%, and then backed off to 43.03. DDM never made it over 43.16
6. TZA did NOT hit 12.10...only made down to 12.20ish

3:50
ddm 43.16 target hit.

3:47
 ddm 4303 target
hit...43.16 next. 43.16 should be the max for today.

3:24
 look at DIA
daily....head shoulders topping
pattern could be setting up DIA ... if
the DOW jones falls, so should the spx ndx
etc


3:17
Charts suggest possible TZA 12.57ish as the cap for today
2:47
ddm "should" hit 43.01, over the .93 target. but who knows. itis especially hard
because the ddm is contra-intraday trend

2:34
Charts suggest that for today, 1099.50 should put a lid on any move up in SPX, if it even gets that high

2:32
ddm / dowjoness looks like at least a little more upside

2:25
If TZA holds over 12.20, then could be a bull flag breakout. however, other indicators weaken the chart pattern, although TZA's ability to stay "up here" is bullish.  A good trade would be to wait for tza to 12.55, then buy the small decline down. then, it should thrust over the 12.55. but this is all speculation for now, just ideas.

1:56
i would not add shorts or longs for swing, at this moment... there is a short setup forming, but this is not the right entry point, at this moment, for me

daytrades, i still like the ddm (at this minute, for now)

1:50
ddm target 42.93 before pullback. last 42.74 (i got stopped out by 1 or 2 cents. at .57..grr)
2:03
at 3:30pm the charts might support a swing overnight, for me, they don't now
1:36
tza could be setting up a weird complex HS in 60min...those 15min rising candles don't look right (rising is not always good)

1:07
i think DOW will pop up one more time before declining,but could go either way. last ddm 42.70

1:04
doubling shares in ddm daytrade with stop still at .57....i might only get .73 on this so need more shares///

1242
ddm tick chart mild bullish, poss cup/handle forming.

1241
ddm stop raised to .57. not interested in it under that, for now.

1240
ddm poking along here..like a turtle

1232
the .76 stall in ddm could be good, allowing it to go past .83 without a stall and trigger some more upward momem

12:27
ddm .75 now...expecting .83 stall

12:22
ddm is right at channel resist now at .72....needs to break over it or will fall to .64ish. looking for it to break over it, then backtest, converting the R line to a micro support line, for the scalp up. looking for it to break over it, then backtest, converting the R line to a micro support line, for the scalp up

12:21
first ddm tgt is .83

12:19
i might exit the ddm b4 42.47...my trendline support is around .56....just have the hard stop at .47 in place in case a crazy downmove comes and i don't have time to type a sell order.

12:11
i'm preferring the DOW over SPX NDX today for any long scalps...looking to get short again the tza. thats why i did DDM for long scalp.

12:08
ddm 42.66 stop .47 for now...daytrade only

12:03
conidering ddm....daytrade only..no setup yet

11:48
tza 60min bear diverg...i'm looking for that to burn off, give me lower price, if able, to re=enter

11:38
i'm close to a daytrade tza buy here even at this high level...dont have the setup yet but close...could decline more...unsure

11:29
tza stop 12.37 on 50% of swing...holding rest for now...will buy back lower...i think i have a valid swing sig now n tza...checking.  12.37 if stopped will give a 6.23% gain overnight...again holding rest for now

Thursday day:
I will be out on vacation for Thursday morning,,, maybe all day.

TRADE: TZA swing from yesterday is up pre-market at 11.85. Some people might take profits here, I will wait and hold.

6:23AM
ES declined to 1100, as i expected, making a low right a 1100 and boucing up to 1103, now bck at 1100 testing it again. It also hugged the downtrend line that  drew last nigh. Update chart below (see top chart).

11:34 PM
ES continues on the roadmap suggested below. Broke the 1105, but only marginally. Let's see if that 1105 holds or breaks lower.

I do think that the next time 1101 is tested, it will break lower (could happen during market hours, or afterhours).

Of course, there are bullish scenarios that call for a move up to 1120. That would happen if the support levels hold (such as a bounce up from 1105) and then R is penetrated (1112).

I've attached an updated chart, but put it at the bottom of the post so that this part is easier to read.

10:19 PM
I expect that 1105 ES will be penetrated lower, and a test of 1101 will occur (with a stall at 1103, bounce up, then down to 1101. The 1105, if penetrated, could be converted to resistance. This is very similar to what I mentioned this morning, pre-market: expecting the 1108 to be converted to R (which it was for the trading day, though after-hours it went higher).

After 1101, then 1098, 1095, 1091, 1083 with stalls at 1090 and 1086.

8:21 PM (wedn)
Lets observe ES tonight and see if it trades in the range 1100--1111.

This chart posted 6:27 AM. I did not change anything in this chart, the only difference are the new prices. Trendlines were not re-drawn.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Indicators, trading method, monitor configuration

Below are some answers to questions I often get via email (FAQ). At some future time, I want to "clean this up", but for now, I will just put this out here "as is".

1.  Systems:  I do daytrading as well as swing and longer term trades.  Because I daytrade, I have 2 internet connections. One is with Verizon mobile internet, and the other is with Time Warner Cable.  I run them both simultaneously.  This way, if my cable modem / time warner crashes, the Verizon mobile is still running, so I never am without an internet connection.  Some years ago, while daytrading, i lost several thousand dollars because my ISP (comcast in california at the time) went down, and I lost my internet connection and was unable to close out a position. By the time I phoned in the order, it was too late.  I have 3 laptops and one desktop computer. Each laptop is attached to a 30inch monitor (Gateway).  One of the laptops has the Verizon mobile broadband card attached, all the others run from my wireless network from Time Warner cable.  I like laptops because, if the electricity / power goes off, I do not lose my connection. The laptop can run on batteries for awhile. Also, the cable modem/wireless will go down without electricity, but my Verizon mobile broadband will not.  (Mobile broadband is cool.... you can use it anywhere, when you travel, not just home). The desktop is connected to a UPS, so it also can run about 10 minutes without electricity, but the laptop/verizon card is clearly superior for that situation.  The reason i use a desktop is because the desktop lets me attache TWO monitors simultaneously (laptop only allows one monitor).  Actually, each monitor itself has 16 charts on it (4 symbols in 4 timeframes each).  With three monitors, I can view 48 charts (12 symbols).

Two of my laptops are Windows, the other is MacBookPro. I like Macbook pro because it does not crash, and more importantly, a 30inch monitor can be connected with highes resolution (2500x1600).  My Windows laptops only allow 1920x1080 resolution.

2.  I'm not a licensed broker. Everything I learned is self-taught through research, reading, and experience making many mistakes. I do have a blog at http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/.  Sometimes I am better at posting graphics and charts there, other days (like today) its a lot of text typing.

3.  Decision making:  First, I study / analyze the equitiy I'm interested in.  I'll try to take a snapshot of one of my monitors so you can see it.  I have it setup so that a single symbol (like SPX SPY QQQQ AAPL IBM etc) always has at least 4 charts in different timeframes.  So, if i'm analyzing SPX, i'm looking at Daily, 60 min, 15 min, and 3min (for daytrade) or Weekly, Daily, 60 min, 15 min for swings. My favorite indicators are on all the charts (all timeframes): 5 MA (moving average), 15 MA, 20 MA, 50 MA.  Those are the moving averages. I overlay the volume on the chart.  The, for each chart, I also have my 4 favorite studies:  Stochastics, RSI, MACD, and MACD histogram. Those are the "computer calculated" pieces. I mostly use candlestick charts because many years ago I was introduced to candle patterns. When I switched from OHLC to candles, at first it was very hard to adjust. But after some time, I got accustomed to the candles and their power.  I do utilize the 100+ candle patterns (actually you only need 10-30 patterns really), but for me, the candles are just another tool. Supplementary information.  If i see a shooting star in an uptrend, but the MACD hist is rising, I don't short based on the bearish shooting star, because the MACD conflicts.  One chart I have bollinger bands on (too cluttery to have it on all of them).

3b. Then, on the chart, in the appropriate time period, I draw appropriate trendlines, ascending triangles, descending triangles, coils, Head Shoulders, etc. Oftentimes I don't need to physically "draw" them because I can "see" the patterns through experience.

3c. I always display ES futures and SPX on my monitors. Usually QQQQ and DOW /DIA/INDU also. I like to compare the ES futures with SPX, particularly for the first 30minutes, since the ES charts often cause gap ups/downs in the SPX. The ES, of course, is smooth.  Also, I usually check the ES futures several times during the night (4:15pm, 5pm, 8pm, Midnight, 3AM, 6AM) though I don't check all those times everynight. Whenever I wake up, I check. Thats why you might see postings in my blog at weird times, like 4AM Eastern time.

3d. By now, I'm sure you can see that I use charts and technical analysis, not fundamentals. This is because, in the timeframes that I trade (minutes, days, weeks... not months or years) the fundamentals don't matter. I trade based on price action. One thing I do watch for in individual equities like AAPL, QCOM, etc is the earnings release dates. I generally do not want to be holding a stock overnight during one of those. I know people that like to play the earnings reports... in general I do not.

3e. Oh, I just remembered, I also look for RSI swing failure reversal patterns, as well as constantly looking for divergences between price and one or more of these: MACD hist, stoch, rsi. Also bollinger bands, McLellan Osc, McLellan Summation (for market breadth), Money Flow are things I look at.

Answers to questions I often get via email

1. i use TDAmeritrade. they also bought ThinkOrSwim so i use the TOS charting usually. but i have accounts at ettrade also.  there are other brokers that i've considered switching too, just never did.  I have a very good negotiated rate at TDA since i do a lot of trades.

2. i just wake up a lot. if i am up, i check. i don't go setting the alarm to wake me up. so yea, i guess i'm a market fanatic. also, i do not trade the futures overnight, though i've considered it.

One Strategy ....

One strategy that works very well for me, for both daytrading and swing trades, is this:

1. Determine whether the DOW / SP500 is in an UPTREND or DOWTREND. (Sometimes it's neither, just moving sideways, as we have seen for the past 7 weeks).

2. Trade in the direction of the DOW / SP500 trend. BUT... find a stock that is performing BETTER than the DOW / SP500 itself. That is, if DOW is in an uptrend, find a DOW 30 stock in a STRONGER uptrend. If DOW is in a downtrend, find a WEAKER DOW 30 stock, one whose downtrend is more severe than the DOW 30 downtrend.  That is, if DOW is in an uptrend, find a DOW 30 stock in a STRONGER uptrend. If DOW is in a downtrend, find a WEAKER DOW 30 stock, one whose downtrend is more severe than the DOW 30 downtrend.

For example, recently DOW was trading sideways, but I felt the reward for shorting was better than for long. I then searched stocks that WERE ALREADY IN A DOWNTREND, but not "too far" down. PG came up as a "weak stock" (which surprised me because it is usually a defensive stock, one that does well in bad economies).  I did the same with SKF (short financials)... financials are weaker.

I am planning on TZA next (though TZA is not in an uptrend, the Russel 2k has not started down yet, but is looking like it might. This is a DIFFERENT, more complex "early entry" strategy).

WARNING: Trading individual stocks (like PG, GE, AAPL, etc) has MORE OVERNIGHT RISK than a wide etf like qqqq spy skf etc. This is because single stocks can GAP UP OR DOWN much more severely. If you are on the right side, that is great of course, but if the gap is against you, it could be disastrous. FOR THIS REASON I PREFER TO ALWAYS HAVE FEWER SHARES (DOLLARS INVESTED) IN SINGLE STOCKS THAN IN A CORRESPONDING MARKET POSTION LIKE SPY QQQQ SDS ETC.  For example, having multiple individual stock positions (e.g. aapl, qcom, ge, pg, etc) is much better than one large position in PG.

Possible monitor cofiguration, chart display

The chart below shows one possible monitor arrangement that I like to use. Each row is a different symbol, with ES futures at the top row. Row 2 is SPX. Other rows show 2 other stocks of interest such as TZA, QQQQ, etc. Using multiple monitors and computers, one can look at multiple stocks. Generally I use 3 monitors like this, with a fourth monitor using a different configuration.

There are 4 charts in each row, each the same symbol but a different timeframe (daily, 60 min, 15min, 3 min). The the time and sales display (black window with red/green prices), followed by two other windows).

So the first row shows 4 charts of ES, in daily, 60 min, 15min, 3 min timeframes. Also, if I maximize a single chart (such as 15 minute ES in row 1), then multiple other studies are shown (stoch, rsi, macd, etc). Due to size restraints, the monitor only displays the first study (stoch) when the chart is small.

The chart below shows one example of a maximized chart, with additional details. The yellow trendlines are hand drawn by me, the other studies are obviously calculated by the computer).

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

TZA chart=== cleaned up some, still dirty, quick

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

3:47
out of tza at .53 for daytrade,,,,keeping the swing tza overhight

3:34
charts suggest higher tza into the close ...BUT they are not so useful after 3:30

2:59
current conditions suggest breakout tza at 3:39pm....prob will speed up as wee move along

2:44
tza needs to thrust up...there is a mini intraday bear diverg 3min....

2:33
i think...the tza is a false breakdown out of its ascending bull triange....see if it climbs back in...tirky here

2:30
tza tick chart mild bearish...broke below its UTL..see if backtests and break over it avaing

2:16
if tza doesnt hold here ....11.51 next

2:14
tza testing the RSI support line now,,,,needs to hold around here

1:55
if tza can hold the .65....that crouching tiger setup should trigger... to push to 1190 next...but .65ish needs to hold

1:48
tza is bullishly churning...for now. last 11.70

1:38
tza is in an hourly bearish wedge right now. but i'm looking for it to break over 11.80 and convert the wedge to an upchannell. within the wedge, there is embedded a smaller upchannel...tza hourly stoch pushing 85

1:32
tza looks prepared to break over its RSI downtrend line on the DAILY.....watching

1:19
more tza at the market...filled 11.67. limit buy cancelled.

1:14
BELOW the market... buy tza limit 11.58 if filled...will pay more if needed

1:05
a close today over 1185 tza would be bullish tza

12:54
tza still is behaving....

TARGETS: tza has resist at 11.74, 11.90
TARGETS: tza targets after .65 are 1171, 1181, 1188, 1209, 1220,1237,,,with stalls at each one

 12:48
Right now, bearish signs continue in spx, but mixed with bullish. 2 daily dojis so far.  this morning, pre-market, i suggested that ES 1008 could become resistance...so far it has held...can't really get over 1006. of course, that could all change with afternoon vol.

12:28
TRADE: in tza at 11.61. stops under low of day, or 10.96

in tza at 11.61.  but builidng small position....willing to hold some overnight....this is higher riskk overnight...i do not have a short setup yet...early entry to scale in.

If tza surges today, i'll take profits, then buy it back cheaper, else holding with those stops

12:05
this coil could be at the breaking point in next 10minutes or so....unsure if it will break or meander along

1158
hourly spx candle...doji..indecision

1148
37.81 is sso coil R...last .73...see if it holds or breaks

1118
spx is coiling..warns could go up or down from here

1059
tza starting to look better for entry, but there is a bear divergence, i'll wait to see if it takes effect and pushes prices lower before entering there.

1054
one cent away from sso stop...not changing this one...will take small profit still if stopped, rest set at breakeven .47

1045
not taking profits at .81...will try for .90 instead

1042
taking some profits here at .74 target...in sso. holding rest for higher

1041
spx breaking over channel resistance now higher

10:39
spx in steep, intraday mini up channel now (3min)

10:35
spx ascending triangle, inv hs in 3min (bullish)

10:30
TRADE: sso stop set at .48, right over breakeven of .44
10:17
TRADE: in sso at 37.45.... stop at 37.11 hard, mental stops 37.35, 37.17

TARGET: 37.81 chart target first for sso. targets/stalls at .61, .66, .70, .74, .83, .93

in sso 37.44 for bounce....expecting the 1100 es to hold... i like tza later...the sso for a bounce scalp, maybe more...

10:07
TZA fibs (1):  1156,1150,1146,1141,1135
TZA fibs (2):  1158,1155,1152,1148,1144,1138


The fibs are close to each other because the stock price is low (eleven cents is 10%)

10:03
tza stalled at .65 as expected.

TARGETS: tza targets after .65 are 1171, 1181, 1209, 1220,1237,,,with stalls at each one

those are tza targets, but don't see entry yet


9:57
expecting tza to stall at 11.64....last is 11.60
9:57
ES supports 1102, and 1099.50 (1099.50/1100 stronger)

9:34
with the market now open, and some volume, ES definitely needs to hurdle 1108 for bulls. Inability to do so would indicate weakness, with the 1108 being converted to resistance.

9:02
If it were 3:50 PM, and if the SPX charts looked like the ES charts do now, it would be a good swing short setup. Of course, it's not 3:50 PM now, but thats what a good setup would look like, to me at least. It would be an early setup signal, with the more conservative being to wait until the next day for confirmation.

8:47
1108 held R,,,11105 trying to break on second test

8:44 AM
ES futures just put in a red bar, quickly declining from 1110 to test the 1105, which has held and bounced to 1107.  It was on high vol for pre-mkt.

Let's see if 1108 is converted to Resistance in ES.

NQ is weaker than ES.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX chart -up a little, then down? Maybe.

SPX chart -up a little, then down? Maybe.

Basically, there's a wedge in SPX (white lines) that likely will take the path of one of the 2 green arrows (Chart 1). More upside is suggested in SPX, but there are also bearish divergences appearing (see both charts 1 and 2).

Notice last Wed and Thurs. A lower high was put in, followed by decline. This is what the first green arrow depicts. However, it's also possible for prices to break higher, then decline.

Charts, for now, suggest an eventual decline to first yellow channel support line, then a break of that for a test of 1085. Also suggests that 1085 will break and put in a lower low.

Notice that from 11/4 to 11/10 (chart 2), prices increased, RSI sloped up, MACD sloped down. MACD and RSI not in agreement then (first RSI trendline).  Subsequently, prices increased more, and both MACD and RSI sloped down, creating a 3x divergence. These are hourly divergences, weaker than a daily divergence.

1) Chart from Nov. 11 till present (zoomed in)

2) Chart since November 3, till present. (zoomed out)

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)

3:59
out of tza .37

3:08
i need to put stop in tza at 11.27 in order to stay green today...it should be looser but thats where i'm putting it

2:40
some sso at .70 limit if filled

2:37
spx 15min is coiling

2:36
bear divergences setting up for spx...but need time to manifest...could see more up first

2:32
the 15min small candles in spx look to be continuation pattern to upsdide

1:52
in sso 37.81 at the mkt...for breakout

TARGET SSO: 38.03, 38.19


1:50
out of tza...at .27....loss

1:33
more tza 11.36. cost now 11.41

1:08
in tza 11.47 stop .27 for now

1255
RSI analysis for SSO:  60min uptrend, 15min DTL but broke over the DTL and holding, 10min rect range with upside break and holding.  other charts suggest some consolodation here, then more up, IF support does not break during consolod

1246
if markets were acting diff, i would actually go momentum long daytrade here...but waiting for now...if i miss it, then oh well

1242
i'm getting closer to a swing setup, but nothing firm so far...only half baked now

1237
TARGET SSO: adding 38.19 after 37.74, 38.03

1225
stop .67

12:22
stops on 50% sso at .57 to get at least some $

12:10
if sso doesnt get higher here i might exit it breakeven...it should be pushing at least marginally higher

1155
sso crouching tiger setup now

11:52
TARGET ----- sso 37.74, 38.03 target...last .49

1145
sso is contr-trend intraday...15min slope is down...so being nimble

1139
sso needs to hurdle .58

11:38
trying a lil sso here at 37.48. stops could be set at .38 if tight, or lower for looser. i will leave it a little room because very choppy waters here.
 
11:33
charts suggest a re-entry in tza might be feasible, but not yet, for me. Waiting for the right setup.

1126
this is tough here today...in cash no positions, small profit, looking for entry on either short or long...short more likely first...but nothing now

1010
TARGETS: 1159, 11.78, 1185, 12.07. .expect stall at .88
1008
a stall at 11.58 is expected...

1007
tza first target hit...... 1159

9:59
targets tza:  1159, 1185, 12.07

9:46
in tza 11.45. might at more at .36...

9:36
tza looks headed for 11.66...last 11.55

9:01 AM
Since 1AM ES has been in a rectangle range 1101--1106. Charts suggest that it will convert to a bear descending triangle, break 1101, and test 1098, and hit 1096. Now, that's given current activity pre-market. At 9:30, things could change. The pattern does not call for the 1098/96 to happen before 9:30 AM, so lets observe.

Buy the dippers could surface and hold up the ES.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

TZA update

3:30
35.97 trgt hit....close to 3613 at 3607...still,,36.13,,, 36.37 tgt sds

3:18
35.97,,,36.13,,, 36.37 tgt sds

3:12
sds .84 target hit.... next .97...upto 36.37 with targets in between. .97 will be tough to crack...lets see

3:10
sds target .84,,, .97....the .84 could be good place to take some profits

3:03
sds target 35.97 on break sustained over .73

2:51
spx hit 1113.69....close to the 1114 target from earlier .... then backed down

2:50
i switched to sds not tza for scalp here because i like the sds chart more...for rest of today

2:39
sds 35.55 stop .47...low risk entry

2:33
tza close to that 1107 target down from 2:03...why i exited that...last 11.17

2:03
spx next tgt 1114...same as b4

2:01
stopped out of tza... headed for 11.07

1:58
it is interesting that they cannot push this higher with the light volume here... unless trying to trap more new shorts...

1:51
spx ideally needs to hold 1110.50 in order to break higher. last 1111

1:48
3 cents from my stop in tza...i refuse to lower it this time....last tza 11.30

1:46
38.19 sso target on breakout..if it breaks

1:40
bought more tza 11.32 stop .27....adding more for such low risk

1:36
tza "should" go higher, but idk if it will hit my tight stop first or not...

1:33
stop .27 tza....not willing to go lower

1:31
i switched to short via tza because spx did not make my 1114 target....though it could still push up there.

1:27
spx 15min bear shooting star

1:23
yes...i'm trying to play the "down" in the down up down pattern for spx

1:20
tza 11.38 limit if filled. last .41. tight stops.

1:17
we have the same pattern that we had thurs here...spx should go down up down...again dont know if it all happens today////

1:11
grrr sso .94 stop hit for 50% of it...still have other half for breakeven hold

1:05
stop on half to .94...for lil profit but more to protect capital...free trade from here

1:02
spx 1114 my sso target

12:59
.81 stop for half of sso

1253
the sso is momentum trade, riskier...again i will exit if doesnt breakout here

1249
sso at 37.89 long...expecting breakout...stop .73 for now...

1238
tza "should" go up here,,,,if not i will take profits (still red for day though :( )

1234
11.67, 11.78 tza targets next

1231
11.67 tza is another nice spot for profit taking

1229
stop on 50% raised to .47

1225
stall here at .55 tza as expected...if it weakens i will take tza profits on 50% and then re-enter if able.

1224
11.67 tza next tgt...at .54...see if stalls

1223
expecting stall at .54 tza

12:18
The 11:08 mini bear pattern manifested itself, from 1111.5 to 1108.50. Now the 1105 needs to hold in spx.

1217
bulls need to hold spx 1105

1216
tza needs .57 now....and to hold the .43 it pierced. the lil pop up on piercing .43 was expected. now must hold

1215
spx at 1109...micro support

12:13
spx can certainly do another surge higher, but the hourly chart warns of tiredness. doesn't mean can't go higher, just a warining. and when tired, it could just consolodate up here, without large decline...will see.

12:08
spx over 1109 is very bullish, as long as it stays there

12:07
so far, the 11:08

pattern is suggesting down, since spx

has not pierced higher...but spx still

has time to do so
 
1159
tza needs 1143 with stall at .39 ok

1153
here is where the spx "should" make another intraday high... if not, should decline. this is the second part of the pattern i mentioned at 1108

1119
tza 1163 projected next. last .54

1118
poss mini inv HS bullish in tza forming

1117
tza needs .62 and .71 to get any upsdide going

1114
added tza 11.52 with a stop at .46

1108
spx should have popped higher on that last move. expecting down 1-2pt then another try up...if 2nd try up doesnt pierce high then it would be intraday bearish. obviously spx intraday bullish now. last spx 1110.

1103
spx has possible ascend triangle 3min settiing up (bullish)

1049
tza has daytrade bullish divergences, will see if they take effect

1038
tza trying to break .58

1034
tza neeeds to break .58 and .67 tho

10:33
back in tza at 11.55

10:29
still waiting for long or short daytrade signal/setup...have neither yet,,,,short seems more likely to come first

10:18
there's a speculative channel line that puts tza 10.96 as possible. last 11.49

10:11
stopped out tza...loss

10:09
stop still at .47 on swing tza...one cent away..not changing this time..can always buy back if merited.

10:07
out tza .52...loss from .63

9:53
theres a nice bull diverg setting up tza hourly. not confirmed yet. still setting up.

9:40
TRADE: lowered stop to .47 temporarily. last .60

Well I am glad that I exited my TZA swing for a profit on Sunday. TZA is down pre-market, hitting a low of 11.95.  Charts suggest a possible re-test of the 11.95 and perhaps even a break of 11.95 to lower prices, but I've taken another starter position here pre-market, understanding that it might go lower.

In the post below, I wrote that I expected TZA might decline "close" to its recent lows. It did that, so I've taken the position pre-market. This is an early entry, I do not have the full setup and signal to enter the TZA just yet, so it carries more risk. But risk seems worth it "down here".

Pre-market, back in TZA at 12.07. Stop 11.57 for now.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

TZA thoughts for tomorrow (Monday)

I'm waiting to see what TZA does tomorrow before deciding to trade it as a swing. Today, I'll be calculating some potential upside and downside targets, as well as appropriate price to enter TZA (if an entry proves to be merited).

I think that the patterns in TZA are calling for a move that comes close to their recent highs or lows, depending on the direction of the break (bias is up for now, with possible move down first, then up). But I need to look at this some more.

I want to do some correlation analysis between Russell 2000, NDX, DOW, and SPX...to see how these might all influence the TZA. Especially because the DOW is close to such a very important number now.

I'll update this later with details.

Of course, anyone with ideas is free to post them by leaving a comment to this post.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".