Once again, the charts have conflicting bullish and bearish signals. There are many bearish signals, but bullish indicator suggest that those bear signs might be ignored for awhile longer as prices move up. Conversely, the bear signals equally suggest that they can act as a hindrance to the contra up trend, causing it to move sideways, or even reverse back down, to resume the larger 60min downtrend. The 60 min. downtrend must be respected until broken, and the 60 min contra rally must also be respected until it is halted. However, the 60min contra rally has not advance enough to negate the larger 60min downtrend. Technically in the 60s, we still have lower highs since 1100.
To note:
*The 60 minute trend is counter-rallying UP within an existing 60min DOWNTREND. The up rally must be respected, until it i halted.
* A move to 1080 spx is possible, but there are some bearish signs to note. Of course, these bearish signs don't guarantee that SPX will not make 1080, but they do provide some clues, and should temper any ultra-enthusiastic views. Further, the bearish signs below suggest strongly that even if SPX goes higher, a move back down is very likely. First, I'll note the bearish signs. Then I'll note the bullish ones.
Bearish signs
* Volume precedes price. That is, volume will decline in an uptrend BEFORE prices decline, and then the price action will catch up and decline. The slope of the volume for the last 6 days is DOWN, while the slope of price is UP. Volume / price divergence is bearish. Also, note that the big red candle had the highest volume of the last 6 days.
* This week was green, BUT the MACD hist was actually lower, not supporting the rally this week. It actually crossed under the zero line. To me, that's very significant, especially on a weekly chart.
* The 15min chart suggests that more upside is possible in the SPX, but the 60 minute charts are weakening. Because the 60 and 15 are oppsosing, it suggests a possible sideways trading, with a move down to follow.
* The 15minute chart already has a bearish double divergence, about to set up a triple divergence. More upside is allowed, as the RSI still has some room to go higher (thus higher prices) before even testing its DTL (downtrendline).
* 60 min momentum is waning, lessening.
* Daily bearish hammer candle
* Prices today hit the 20 MA daily and backed down. So resistance held. (Break higher is possible, even somewhat common, though).
* QQQQ is close to horiz 42.69. If the QQQQ stays down and holds R, then SPX might also.
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Bullish
* Although the 15min chart is in a bearish rising wedge, there is still room for prices to move higher within the wedge before it breaks.
* Prices moved higher in spx on volume into the close
* 15min stochastice have a bull cross, and are pointed up, above the 55. However, note also that the previous 2 stochastic moves were lower, so the 15min could be running out of gas.
* The 60 min has either an up channel or a very wide bearish rising wedge that allows much more upside. Technically it would be a wedge, but prices are very far from wedge resistance of around 1079.
* Stoch is rising...but just under the 50, on daily. Will it stall at 50 and turn down?
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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