4:10 pm
i took a small loss on the piece of spxu that i held through the close. overall, green day, but that piece of the trade was a loss.
3:31
mondays have been up days quite a bit. purely from a tech view, my bias is toward down in spx. The daily candle and the hourly charts suggest down. But there is also some evidence of possible upside, on the daily chart. So I will not take any new longs or shorts overnight.
3:05
i've had 100% winning trades for about 3 weeks straight. If i cared about that, then i would just sell it all now for a small profit. but i care about profits, and doing the right thing, not about 100% wins. so i'll hold 20%, taking a possible loss but guaranteeing a daily profit (from earlier trades today).
3:03
sold some spxu at .74 for small .11 profit. stops raised to breakeven on 80%. will run with 20%
and guarantee a daily profit, tho the last 20% might be a loss
3:01pm
unbelieveable it hit .86....misssed by one cent so far (on my limit ordr)...grr
2:49
depending on action, i might sell 100% instead of 50% at the limit trgt
2:45
Still no swing signal for either long or short, I didnt expect one today.
2:44
spx could go higher, but the hourly candles are bearish. just one indicator though, others suggest higher. in limbo here.
2:32
more selling than buying, at least for now. but mild
2:08
bears have momen intraday, for now at least. spx 1068
2:00 pm
CHANGING llimit to sell 50% of spxu from 43.17 to 42.96
lim sell 10% spxu 42.87 still in place
1:57
spx still in intraday coil/wedge....bias is neutral at this moment,slightly down. i've mentioned before, these bear wedges have a nast habit of breaking UP and then falling down hard... not all expected today, just food for thought.
1:51
1432 still the time est for breakout up or down
1:49
spxu over 42.44 should give .70 ...last .32
1:40
if 1070 holds here, then the chop could go until 14:32....same time est
1:38
spx target 1077 on break over 1072.50
1:28
my charts continue to suggest lower spx today
1:25pm
bear rising wedge in spx allows higher prices in spx, then suggests lower after.
1:14
spx cannot make up its mind on velociity....current conditions suggest breakout up or down at 13:47 (curr speed) or 14:32 (prev speed). If 13.47 comes, bias is downward break
104
lim sell 10% spxu 42.87
102
llimit to sell 50% of spxu 43.17
1258
spxu 42.20 is allowed.
1256
my charts say this could drag on until 1442
1254
i'm getting my proprietary crounching signal ...bearish...suggest lower spx,
1253
looking for 1065.5 to break lower
1252
my work continues to show increasing price but tiredness momentum
1246
here come the bears, i think....spx 1067
1244
looking for spxu to hurdle .72....then upside momen should pick up (down spx)
12:27
bought more spxu 42.34. cost earlier was 42.91. avg cost 42.63
12:26
spx should visit 1061 test in the coming hours/days
12:13
i dont trust this part of the rally. spx 1069...charts say lower even if it makes new highs.
12:12
watching to see 1071...nice move by bulls
12:06
if spxu breaks over .73, then .84, it should go up (spx down)
12:04
bears building some momen...rite now...spx 1067.
12:03
we've got bearish divergences forming...suggests chop, maybe even higher prices, but then lower
12:01
the coil itself supports mixed signals...thats why its a coild not asc or desc triangle. prices increasing but my momentum shows slowing...suggests lower spx. spx last 1065
1159
to be fair....the coil usually resolves in the direction of the preceding trend, in this case up...but my other work says down...so mixed
1156
thus far spxu only marginally violated my mental .51 stop at .48. I'm prepared to stay in even lower, as long as charts suggest up in spxu, down spx
1155
failure of spx to reach 1071 will put in a bearish 15min chart
1152
there is chop here...in chop i rely on the 60s and throw out the 3min. it says spx down from here while chop tape. spx 1067.
1147
poss inv hs bullish to form in the spxu 3min
1145
spxu can even make a lower low and be valid...no decisions yet
1144
i know it sounds crazy---my work says spx down despite this pop up //// i'llll waiton the spxu some more and hold.
11:41
1158 adjusted time for resolution decide break hihgr lower. i thnk it will be late....my work says 1158 but i think later
11:35
spxu trgt first .14ish...inexact
11:34
ah now we r getting mini scalp bear diverg spx...nice. nervous spxu will exit breakeven, i'm staying in for now
11:33
grrr spxu not behaving...broke my support line....will wait for backtest to see if i need to exit...not exiting in panic
11:32
this is just choppy around....i'm only mentally stopped at .51....might lower it...this could be a loss for me...will see
11:27
.86 close enough...going in at the mkt...crazy fill at .86 and .94. stop around .51ish
11:25
i will buy spxu 42.84 if filled
11:23
the 60min momen is down for spx,,,15min is confused and could turn the 60 either way. bias is now down until changed, but a neutral choppy down
11:21
i've got 11:57 up down decision in the confused spx ...at current velocity and conditions.....of course they may speed it up or slow it
1116
close to re-entry on spxu...but need to wait 2-7 more mins
1114
spxu 42.66 basically held, normally i might have tried limit re-entry there...but too choppy here...prefer to wait, even enter higher if needed
1109
wow glad i took profits in spxu at 4307ish and higher. last 4267
11:06
i STILL do not have a valid swing short signal, and might not for 2 days. it's a complicted explanation, maybe i'll post something later on it giving details. however, i might take some "early" swings ahead of the signal, but smaller positions, and prepared for more whipsaw if i do take them
11:03
3 days ago i suggested spx 1071. today's high thus far is 1071.48
11:01
larger target spxu is 44.80 on break of both 43.51 and 43.72
10:55
for daytrades, i'm almost inclined to switch to sds instead of this spxu stuff...its very hard to get precise price targets in spxu...too jumpy. i'll stick with spxu for today since i'm "used to it" now, but in future may use the sds for daytrades, spxu for swings of under 5 days. i will just buy more shares in sds. it will appear to be making less % because sds is 2x, spxu is 3%, but the dollar profit will be the same because more shares in sds. and thats what we care about...the actual net profit.
1051
selling all spxu daytrade now. can re-entr. sold 43.09. sold 4309. normally i would hold, but too choppy. my charts warning of pullback in the spxu so out i go, for now
1049
no daytrade re-entry signal yet for spxu
1046
hit .38 and backed to 43.05 as expected
1038
charts say higher spxu. last 4308. 43.39 next spxu jump then stall.
1036
expect stall at 4353 and 4361
1033
limit sell more at 43.47
1032
43.07 filled. its blowing past my targets. strong spxu
10:30
limit sell 25% at 43.07... ,98 last
10:29
spxu 43.53 higher tgt, interim ones to follow
10:28
.77 target made
10:26
spxu 42.77 first target
10:23
in spxu at 42.43. should breakout higher in 2mins. the spxu is a daytrade not swing. no swing signal yet
10:14
LESSON LEARNED (again). I made a mistake. Ok so i took profits on my spxu swing from yesterday right near its high. that was good. BUT BUT i made an error in holding the other 50%. i watched the "profit/loss $" screen INSTEAD of the charts, reasoning that "I already took profits, so no problem if I break even on the rest". While that is a valid strategy, IT WAS A MISTAKE for me to watch the profit/loss # instead of the charts. this was an immature action on my part.
10:13
the 10min is weakening...suggests a move to 1065 spx. last 1069
10:08
15min and 60min spx candles are spin tops....represents indecision and warns of exhaustion. but it could consolodate and go up more.
10:07
i have no long or short signal for daytrade or swing. charts weakening....looking for direction.
10:04
1082 is possible if spx breaks 1073
10:01
es has not yet reached its overnite high of 1069.50....last 1068
9:59
charts suggest spx still to go higher, but the move was so fast, those indicators may be wrong...will watch. last spx 1070
9:56
see what happens as ES tests 1070 here...hold or break higher
9:56
SPX hit my 1071 target from 2 days ago :) ... well 1070.82
9:52
The spx has a bear rising wedge that is increasing but later calls for lower levels. WE must wait for the wedge to breakout to the upside. The bulls might be able to convert this bear wedge to a bull up channel, but right now its a wedge. This volatility is expected as prices bounce up and down in the wedge.
9:46
stopped out of rest of spxu...
9:43
stop on rest of unsold spxu at 43.31
9:34
SPX testing 1060 now...impt support level intraday
9:27
i'll wait until things settle and charts develop before saying if i think spx gets 1070. right now, the door is still open to 1071/80, but half closed
9:14
for 4 weeks, the charts have been amazingly accurate...calling both the longs and shorts... trade the charts not trade what we think charts have been pinpointing times and prices within minutes/hours,, pennies close
charts have been pinpointing times and prices within minutes/hours,, pennies close this implies, to me at least, that markets are getting "normal" again and i believe also less govt intervention is causeing the "more nornal"
8:53
1054 is not in my array but its support...i should have put 1055 in my array,,,,sorry about that. i will take some spxu off 43.74 vs 42.74 cost for 2.3% profit, overnight.
8:39am
sold a small piece of my spzu swing that i bought at 3:50pm yesterday as ES hits the 1057 target. sold 43.44 vs 42.74 cost for 1.6% profit. almost always, i will sell a piece at my targets as defined in the array below.
this is why i took that short swing last night at 3:50pm..took a smaller than normal size becuse my system said "wait to short" but other indicators said "short now at 3:45pm ish". wish i had a larger position, but thats fine.
8:36
The 1057.50 in the bear scenario has been marginally violated. see if it stays under it.
8:31
Whipsaw now in ES as report issued. hit new high of nite 1069.50 (just 1/2 pt from 1070 target) and dropped to 1058. scenarios below still in effect.
6:45 AM
ES thus far traded in the range 1061 to 1066.50. There was a small break higher, not lower as expected, so I was wrong on that.
The 15min ES does have a neg bear divergence which suggests the bearish scenario below, BUT some more upside might come first, and it might need a triple divergence, and the double divergence occurred pre-market on low volume. The bias is neutral with a bearish twinge.
The 1071/74/80 move up that I suggested 2 days ago is still possible. I still do not have a "short now" signal in my system, so allows more upside is expected. I did take a small short yesterday pre-maturely, with the plan of either adding it to my longer term position, or covering it when spx declines before it moves up. (SPX can go from 1066 to 1056 and then 1071/80, for example).
11:17pm
ES continues to trade in narrow range. 1062--1064
Thurs 9:10 PM
i took a small loss on the piece of spxu that i held through the close. overall, green day, but that piece of the trade was a loss.
3:31
mondays have been up days quite a bit. purely from a tech view, my bias is toward down in spx. The daily candle and the hourly charts suggest down. But there is also some evidence of possible upside, on the daily chart. So I will not take any new longs or shorts overnight.
3:05
i've had 100% winning trades for about 3 weeks straight. If i cared about that, then i would just sell it all now for a small profit. but i care about profits, and doing the right thing, not about 100% wins. so i'll hold 20%, taking a possible loss but guaranteeing a daily profit (from earlier trades today).
3:03
sold some spxu at .74 for small .11 profit. stops raised to breakeven on 80%. will run with 20%
and guarantee a daily profit, tho the last 20% might be a loss
3:01pm
unbelieveable it hit .86....misssed by one cent so far (on my limit ordr)...grr
2:49
depending on action, i might sell 100% instead of 50% at the limit trgt
2:45
Still no swing signal for either long or short, I didnt expect one today.
2:44
spx could go higher, but the hourly candles are bearish. just one indicator though, others suggest higher. in limbo here.
2:32
more selling than buying, at least for now. but mild
2:08
bears have momen intraday, for now at least. spx 1068
2:00 pm
CHANGING llimit to sell 50% of spxu from 43.17 to 42.96
lim sell 10% spxu 42.87 still in place
1:57
spx still in intraday coil/wedge....bias is neutral at this moment,slightly down. i've mentioned before, these bear wedges have a nast habit of breaking UP and then falling down hard... not all expected today, just food for thought.
1:51
1432 still the time est for breakout up or down
1:49
spxu over 42.44 should give .70 ...last .32
1:40
if 1070 holds here, then the chop could go until 14:32....same time est
1:38
spx target 1077 on break over 1072.50
1:28
my charts continue to suggest lower spx today
1:25pm
bear rising wedge in spx allows higher prices in spx, then suggests lower after.
1:14
spx cannot make up its mind on velociity....current conditions suggest breakout up or down at 13:47 (curr speed) or 14:32 (prev speed). If 13.47 comes, bias is downward break
104
lim sell 10% spxu 42.87
102
llimit to sell 50% of spxu 43.17
1258
spxu 42.20 is allowed.
1256
my charts say this could drag on until 1442
1254
i'm getting my proprietary crounching signal ...bearish...suggest lower spx,
1253
looking for 1065.5 to break lower
1252
my work continues to show increasing price but tiredness momentum
1246
here come the bears, i think....spx 1067
1244
looking for spxu to hurdle .72....then upside momen should pick up (down spx)
12:27
bought more spxu 42.34. cost earlier was 42.91. avg cost 42.63
12:26
spx should visit 1061 test in the coming hours/days
12:13
i dont trust this part of the rally. spx 1069...charts say lower even if it makes new highs.
12:12
watching to see 1071...nice move by bulls
12:06
if spxu breaks over .73, then .84, it should go up (spx down)
12:04
bears building some momen...rite now...spx 1067.
12:03
we've got bearish divergences forming...suggests chop, maybe even higher prices, but then lower
12:01
the coil itself supports mixed signals...thats why its a coild not asc or desc triangle. prices increasing but my momentum shows slowing...suggests lower spx. spx last 1065
1159
to be fair....the coil usually resolves in the direction of the preceding trend, in this case up...but my other work says down...so mixed
1156
thus far spxu only marginally violated my mental .51 stop at .48. I'm prepared to stay in even lower, as long as charts suggest up in spxu, down spx
1155
failure of spx to reach 1071 will put in a bearish 15min chart
1152
there is chop here...in chop i rely on the 60s and throw out the 3min. it says spx down from here while chop tape. spx 1067.
1147
poss inv hs bullish to form in the spxu 3min
1145
spxu can even make a lower low and be valid...no decisions yet
1144
i know it sounds crazy---my work says spx down despite this pop up //// i'llll waiton the spxu some more and hold.
11:41
1158 adjusted time for resolution decide break hihgr lower. i thnk it will be late....my work says 1158 but i think later
11:35
spxu trgt first .14ish...inexact
11:34
ah now we r getting mini scalp bear diverg spx...nice. nervous spxu will exit breakeven, i'm staying in for now
11:33
grrr spxu not behaving...broke my support line....will wait for backtest to see if i need to exit...not exiting in panic
11:32
this is just choppy around....i'm only mentally stopped at .51....might lower it...this could be a loss for me...will see
11:27
.86 close enough...going in at the mkt...crazy fill at .86 and .94. stop around .51ish
11:25
i will buy spxu 42.84 if filled
11:23
the 60min momen is down for spx,,,15min is confused and could turn the 60 either way. bias is now down until changed, but a neutral choppy down
11:21
i've got 11:57 up down decision in the confused spx ...at current velocity and conditions.....of course they may speed it up or slow it
1116
close to re-entry on spxu...but need to wait 2-7 more mins
1114
spxu 42.66 basically held, normally i might have tried limit re-entry there...but too choppy here...prefer to wait, even enter higher if needed
1109
wow glad i took profits in spxu at 4307ish and higher. last 4267
11:06
i STILL do not have a valid swing short signal, and might not for 2 days. it's a complicted explanation, maybe i'll post something later on it giving details. however, i might take some "early" swings ahead of the signal, but smaller positions, and prepared for more whipsaw if i do take them
11:03
3 days ago i suggested spx 1071. today's high thus far is 1071.48
11:01
larger target spxu is 44.80 on break of both 43.51 and 43.72
10:55
for daytrades, i'm almost inclined to switch to sds instead of this spxu stuff...its very hard to get precise price targets in spxu...too jumpy. i'll stick with spxu for today since i'm "used to it" now, but in future may use the sds for daytrades, spxu for swings of under 5 days. i will just buy more shares in sds. it will appear to be making less % because sds is 2x, spxu is 3%, but the dollar profit will be the same because more shares in sds. and thats what we care about...the actual net profit.
1051
selling all spxu daytrade now. can re-entr. sold 43.09. sold 4309. normally i would hold, but too choppy. my charts warning of pullback in the spxu so out i go, for now
1049
no daytrade re-entry signal yet for spxu
1046
hit .38 and backed to 43.05 as expected
1038
charts say higher spxu. last 4308. 43.39 next spxu jump then stall.
1036
expect stall at 4353 and 4361
1033
limit sell more at 43.47
1032
43.07 filled. its blowing past my targets. strong spxu
10:30
limit sell 25% at 43.07... ,98 last
10:29
spxu 43.53 higher tgt, interim ones to follow
10:28
.77 target made
10:26
spxu 42.77 first target
10:23
in spxu at 42.43. should breakout higher in 2mins. the spxu is a daytrade not swing. no swing signal yet
10:14
LESSON LEARNED (again). I made a mistake. Ok so i took profits on my spxu swing from yesterday right near its high. that was good. BUT BUT i made an error in holding the other 50%. i watched the "profit/loss $" screen INSTEAD of the charts, reasoning that "I already took profits, so no problem if I break even on the rest". While that is a valid strategy, IT WAS A MISTAKE for me to watch the profit/loss # instead of the charts. this was an immature action on my part.
10:13
the 10min is weakening...suggests a move to 1065 spx. last 1069
10:08
15min and 60min spx candles are spin tops....represents indecision and warns of exhaustion. but it could consolodate and go up more.
10:07
i have no long or short signal for daytrade or swing. charts weakening....looking for direction.
10:04
1082 is possible if spx breaks 1073
10:01
es has not yet reached its overnite high of 1069.50....last 1068
9:59
charts suggest spx still to go higher, but the move was so fast, those indicators may be wrong...will watch. last spx 1070
9:56
see what happens as ES tests 1070 here...hold or break higher
9:56
SPX hit my 1071 target from 2 days ago :) ... well 1070.82
9:52
The spx has a bear rising wedge that is increasing but later calls for lower levels. WE must wait for the wedge to breakout to the upside. The bulls might be able to convert this bear wedge to a bull up channel, but right now its a wedge. This volatility is expected as prices bounce up and down in the wedge.
9:46
stopped out of rest of spxu...
9:43
stop on rest of unsold spxu at 43.31
9:34
SPX testing 1060 now...impt support level intraday
9:27
i'll wait until things settle and charts develop before saying if i think spx gets 1070. right now, the door is still open to 1071/80, but half closed
9:14
for 4 weeks, the charts have been amazingly accurate...calling both the longs and shorts... trade the charts not trade what we think charts have been pinpointing times and prices within minutes/hours,, pennies close
charts have been pinpointing times and prices within minutes/hours,, pennies close this implies, to me at least, that markets are getting "normal" again and i believe also less govt intervention is causeing the "more nornal"
8:53
1054 is not in my array but its support...i should have put 1055 in my array,,,,sorry about that. i will take some spxu off 43.74 vs 42.74 cost for 2.3% profit, overnight.
8:39am
sold a small piece of my spzu swing that i bought at 3:50pm yesterday as ES hits the 1057 target. sold 43.44 vs 42.74 cost for 1.6% profit. almost always, i will sell a piece at my targets as defined in the array below.
this is why i took that short swing last night at 3:50pm..took a smaller than normal size becuse my system said "wait to short" but other indicators said "short now at 3:45pm ish". wish i had a larger position, but thats fine.
8:36
The 1057.50 in the bear scenario has been marginally violated. see if it stays under it.
8:31
Whipsaw now in ES as report issued. hit new high of nite 1069.50 (just 1/2 pt from 1070 target) and dropped to 1058. scenarios below still in effect.
6:45 AM
ES thus far traded in the range 1061 to 1066.50. There was a small break higher, not lower as expected, so I was wrong on that.
The 15min ES does have a neg bear divergence which suggests the bearish scenario below, BUT some more upside might come first, and it might need a triple divergence, and the double divergence occurred pre-market on low volume. The bias is neutral with a bearish twinge.
The 1071/74/80 move up that I suggested 2 days ago is still possible. I still do not have a "short now" signal in my system, so allows more upside is expected. I did take a small short yesterday pre-maturely, with the plan of either adding it to my longer term position, or covering it when spx declines before it moves up. (SPX can go from 1066 to 1056 and then 1071/80, for example).
Bearish sccenario: A break under 1060 should push it lower to 1057.50, 1050, 1044, 1039, 1037, 1031, 1026, 1021.
Bullish scenario: If 1064 breaks higher expect 1070, 74,78, 1083, 1088.
11:17pm
ES continues to trade in narrow range. 1062--1064
Thurs 9:10 PM
It's still early in the session. I'm watching to see if 1057.50 breaks lower or if 1064.5 breaks higher.
Most likely scenario: Range trade between 1057.50 and 1064.50. A break higher probably will not exceed 1070, while a break lower likely would hold at 1050. A break under 1057 is much more likely than a break over 1064.
So the most likely scenario is range trade between 1057.50 and 1064.50, with a possible decline to 1050.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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