monday ramblings / ES Futures Sunday night, Monday pre-market

Trades are in BLUE when I have time to do so

3:44
Sold the small sso piece (25%) for .79 vs .39

318
no tza swing... i'll wait to re-enter...its gone for now

316
out of last 25% tza for now.... :(

309
grr tza hit my .03 stop.....took a loss on that one from 1306 to 1303 (bought in 2 pieces)...all other trades today were profit, tho small
3pm
tza stop 13.03 for 75% of position
248
tza has slight upward bias to me, for now, at 1308

229
spx looks headed down in next 10mins. last1089.58
210
poss 3min bear HS spx

201
looking for tza to test 1315. last 1305

154
added some more tza here at 1302. the last 1302 tza is an attempt to play a bull diverg

146
tza seems a decent swing...i will prob keep some overnight, not sure until 330/350pm

144
crouching tiger setting up tza...not yet...early but is there if tza holds 1308. tza looks ready to pop up

134
stopped out of most sso at .47 from .38....profits are small but steady today...tough day for daytrades

133
sso stop .47 on 75%

131
.57 hit exactly and backed down...needs to hurdle that/// this stall is normal, expected....

130
sso 3657 should give a pop higher. last .52
125
sso stop .40 now on 75%. paid .38. either it holds here and breaks or i'm not interested ....
120
nervous sso would exit here at this .43 gift with a minimal profit...to avoid loss. i will stay in

117
i have a swing short setting up in spx...says "short but wait for proper entry price"... spx 1088

112
133t spx has bear HS in it. still in the sso messy scalp from 36.39. sso last 3638

104
tza wants 1308 or 1273 before bounce up, it seems. last 1319

1245
if sso doesn't hurdle .47 i will likely exit it again, since a bear HS could set up

1243
trying sso again 3639 if filled

1219
stoppped out of rest of tza at .21...took profits on other piece
1218
TRADE: sso stop now at .44 for free trade, just above breakeven

1216
1321 stop in tza for daytrade piece,,,,can always reenter,,,took some profits b4
12:11
TRADE: In SSO 36.42 stop .33

1153
if tza .23 holds we have another daytrade tiger in it
11:47
this is tricky...bear diverg developing in the tza
11:41
TRADE: sold some tza at 13.27

1132
tza .43 sstall expected. last 1334

1131
ES likely to test 1084...last 1087
1127
TRADE: stop for 50% tza at 13.07. last 13.24

1123
more tza 13.19 lim if filled...last 13.22...

1117
tza 133t chart shows an off balance W bullish
11:14
TRADE: In TZA at 13.21. sstop 12.87 for now.
tza trgts 13.47, 13.79, 14.96. pattern suggests 14.23.


10:58
TRADE: stop 2046 faz for all but 25%
faz stop hit...out of all faz except 25%. 20.46 vs 20.31


10:54
TRADE: FAZ stop raised to 20.29, for close to breakeven, free ride.
stall at faz .55 is ok...expecting...

10:43
TRADE: In FAZ now again at 20.31. target 20.57, 20.69

Crouching tiger in FAZ
Poss inv HS bull in FAZ 3min


1036
xlf tiger at 14.50,,,but it's right at xlf R...tricky here

1035
TRADE: stop raised to 72.97 for all but 25% of fas

1033
taking half of fas off here into strength at 73.34
 
1030
TRADE: FAS targets 72.53, 74.13

1027
Crouching tiger bullish developing in FAS....not confirmed yet....needs to hold 72.70 to be valid...

1024
this FAS is too jerky for daytrading, I think i will just buy 3x the # of shares in the XLF instead, next time

1018
Trade: fas stop 72.64 now

1014
es 1097 trgt now...last 1093.75.  charts suggest break higher of the es 1094...for now

1013
Trade: stop raised to 72.47 near breakeven

1000
despite all this whipsaw, charts suggest higher spx in coming 1 hour...last spx1092.50

953
this tape is whipping around here this morn...wide stops needed

9:51
TRADE: In FAS at 72.49/ Target 73.53

936
TRADE: stopped out of faz at swing at breakeven

919
under 1091 es would be very bearish. last 1089.50

914
ES declined from 1092.50 and is at 1089 now, as 838 post suggested

912
poss bear HS in 3min ES, poss bull inv HS in 15min...watching both... i am still bearish

907
trade: swing faz stop moved to breakeven 20.44. i can always re-enter. again, may exit before 20.44 if i see ES moving up.

905
watching for poss bull inv HS to dev in ES 3min or 15min...not formed, just watching.

844am
looks like 1093 ES resist is holding now and should go back down... if it does not hold i will prob close my faz...over 1093 implies 1096/97

8:38
charts suggest that ES should decline in next 5 min. last ES 1092.50.

8:26
TRADE: if ES (premarket) holds over 1092 then I will consider selling the faz swing and buying back later. cost faz 20.44, last 20.76

8:11AM
If SPX 1084 breaks lower to 1080, SPX could see 1072 quickly thereafter, within 5minutes to 6 hours. SPX is over the 1084 now.

7:55AM
The 1098 ES resistance held all night, and futures broke the important 1088 support (from 8pm last nights post) and went to 1084, but have now bounced and are now at 1089.  Bulls need to keep it over 1088. Under 1088 is the bearish scenario (I still favor the bear scenario over next few days).

there is micro R at 1092 ES for the next 2 hours, or until it is broken higher (if it does). Under 1092 and exp under 1088 would be bearish intraday

9:59
Futures are up now, but let's also remember that it's early in the night session, and anything can happen, especially when Europe opens. They could easily go back down, or break the 1098 higher.

9:40
bull and bear scenarios that could unfold in the coming days/weeks: I favor the bear scenario with a move to 1080 then 1050ish, as the charts look now.

Bullish scenario: There is a potential bullish pattern in ES that points to a target of 1127, if the resistance zones are hurdled by the bulls.

Bearish scenario suggests for SPX 1085, 1080, 1050ish, 1029, 950ish (exact targets not calc here)

1098 is key R for overnight, downside supports are 1088, 1078, 1067

9:35
To clarify:

i did buy some faz on friday, but noted that we could go up... the spx is in a rectangle range. i entered faz with idea of holding it, in case we don't go up. the ES did some technical damage to the downside that has not manifested itself fully in the spx. Right now, spx is stressed with a downside bias, tho it might bounce up first.  That is, right now, to me, the charts suggest that SPX will break out of the rectangle range, and that the break will be to the downside, based on hourly daily weekly charts. it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

8:02pm
ES futures up 4pts at 1094. the 1098 is key R for overnight, downside supports are 1088, 1078, 1067

more udates later with targets.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

9:50
Trade: fas at 72.51 limit if filled to buy