Monday ramblings / ES Futures Monday pre-market

4:58
look at the hourly candles on thurs 10/29,,and then 10/30....and then look at todays candles. bearish.

3:38
i will sell 50% sds at 37.67 lim if filled

3:35
spx is starting to break that bear wedge lower here...never really popped out of it...

3:21
i won't panic and sell the sds at this crazy price...because there are lots of bear divergences. tomorrow, should be able to "get out" of short, even if it doesnt hit target. Unless tomorrow is a marubozu candle, or gaps up high, i can exit with a better price tomorrow.

3:18
i might keep this sds overnight if price does not improve today. 37.16 is a support level for sds.
 
3:09
volume precedes price...the vol slope is down, the price slope is up, for 6 days

3:06
if spx does not make 1100 (not necesarrily by today)and starts to turn down, panic selling might start...but then the dip buyers step in

2:59
this 60min chart pattern is NOT healthy bullish, BUT it can pop still higher. it can stay sick for a long time while it goes up

2:09
sds first target 3746. last 3730

2:08
bought more sds 37.28. avg cost now 37.52. 

2:07
spx intraday bear divergence here, rather big for intraday, but who knows if it will push prices lower


1:56
spx remains in the wedge and has not sped up, yet.

1:55
vix flashing a warning but stil no threat to bulls...but could change

1:47
spx barely creeping up outside the wedge

1:45
if 1093 breaks...could see a run up to 1100

1:43
these bear wedges do have a nasty tendency to pop higher out of the wedge before the bearish manifestation is realized

1:40
here's a lil vol....see if spx pushes higher. spx 1089.

1:34
I'm not saying that spx won't go higher, BUT, today, everytime a new daily high was made, it was marginal, small. That a very bearish sign

1:28
actually spx would have an easier time breaking the 1100 if it pulled back down here,,then sprung up

1:23
its highly unlikely i'll get a swing short setup today. spx would need to drop to 1076ish at least, i think, for my short setup. then bounce and short the bounce up.

1:17
amazingly the daytrade sell signal still valid...actually is stronger. spx 1087. BUT spx over 1086 is bullish. must break under that, to start.

1:10
spx is still exactly inside my mini intraday bear wedge...its very narrow now but wedge says it might not break higher or lower until 4:32 (or tomorrow lol) but velocity likely will pick up and it will prob resolve today.

12:48
spx continues trading inside the bear wedge. still have daytrade sds signals

12:41
spx intraday is very close to the upchannel R line here at 1086.

12:30
SPX has a small but sharp bear wedge inside a small bull channel inside another larger bull channel. Even it the trend continues up, I still expect the SPX to pull back to their up-channel support lines. the wedge extends up to 1092.  spx last 1086.

12:12
The last time I saw a pattern very similar to this was when I shorted at 1098...spx made 1103 but then went to 1032ish.  Not saying that spx isn't going higher, but warning are there. Still no swing short signal though. I know shorting is not popular here right now, but it wasn't popular at 1100 either. still the daily candle is bullish on spx now. obviously we have mixed signals. this seems to me a tired push up...but we all know how high spx can go even on tired pushes.

12:04
37.64 next sds R test. i expect stall if it gets there.

12:01
daytrade signal for 37.55 sds just now. i entered early before.

11:54
FII swing short continues to behave. Note how it is underperforming the spx.

11:50
sds hit my low target of 37.44 from earlier this morn. 37.44 is low of day so far.  see if that holds, or it heads to 37.11

11:42
a quad bear diverg is setting up in spx...has triple already

11:35
FII continues to exhibit more weakness than spx, and the swing short signal is strengthening.

11:31
there is a triple bear divergence in spx DAILY charts, about to set up a quad, suggesting lower prices

11:20
Spx broke over 1084, as expected at 11:04 below. Let's see if it's a minimal piercing. bear divergences continue to solidify

11:18
sds close to my prev target of 37.44. last 37.53. see if .44 holds

11:08
my work suggests a pullback to 1078 spx but spx might want 1092 first. last spx 1084.

11:06
the 60min spx has rising candles, but the pattern in the last 5 candles warns of pullback. last spx 1083. if the last candles were descending it would allow bull flag formation, but instead they are rising. In this case, higher is not bullish because the advances are minimal,with small bodies. rising candles are not always bullish. i'm speaking intraday only here, for now, not swings.

11:04
charts suggest 60% confid of break higher than 1084. but pop might be minimal. pullback still expected intraday. thus i remain short via sds

10:56
spx continues to set up a bear diverg that should give a pullback, even if it goes over 1084. last spx 1083.50

10:46
3min bull diverg on sds setting up now..unconfirmed yet...after confirmed,it should bounce up (spx down). sds could make a new daily low before bouncing higher.

10:31
added more sds 37.71. avg vost now 37.75

10:28
sds daytrade 37.77 stop 37.21

10:21
poss sds daytrade at 37.40...no buy signal yet

9:55
short FII 26.67

9:46
spx hit 1080, but no swing short signal

8:59
DOW could see 10,293 (not necessarily today) before turning down.

8:38 AM
ES has continued to advance, and hit a high of 1078.50. There are bearish divergences that suggest that ES should move lower from there, also supported by the hourly stochastic. But, the move up has happened during after hours market trading, so the decline could be delayed.

I expect a move down to 1072, then a bounce back up 1078/80/89, and then a decline back down to 1075, 1072, 1064, 1051, 1036, 1026, 1012, 953, 921 (not all today). If any of those support levels hold and bounce higher instead of lower, obviously I expect prices to move back up to test the next level of higher resistance.

ES is forming a bearish Head And Shoulders pattern. Let's see if it continues to develop, and if it breaks lower.

3:58 AM
ES S&P 500 Futures are up nicely 7 points, at 1074 last. As long as the ES is above 1069, it remains bullish. Current charts suggest it will test 1071 in the next hour and possibly 1068. As long as these hold, it's bullish to 1080, 1083, 89, 95, 99

For SPX cash combined with ES futures, charts suggest, for now, that there is still more upside in the SPX, but that should be followed by a test lower of SPX support. Again, if spx support holds at 1067, it's bullish. If 1067 breaks, then it remains bullish and should retest any highs made and if that high is hurdled, retest 1100. The bullish SPX has a pattern that suggests 1069 to 1092 to 1105 to 1120 (if each of those are hurdled higher)

Right now, however, the charts suggest one push upward, followed by a decline that will break support and become bearish once again.

If SPX gaps up, then I will watch to see if it gaps and goes (without even declining to test gap support), or (2) declines to test gap support at 1071 and turns higher or (3) declines to test gap support at at 1071, breaks it, and continues lower.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".