Made profits in spxu. 100% winning trades today.
2:19
spxu hit my stop so i'm all out now of remaing 15%.
2:18
spxu hit 44.45,,,2 cents from my .47 target
1:57
spxu targets 44.27 44.43 44.81 45.31. higher ones imprecise now but thats the general idea
1:31
spxu continues to stall almost exactly at my targets.
1:28
.22 target hit,,, i "should" have sold some spxu at the .22 target, but i dont have that much left so opted to hold for breakeven or .40/.80ish
1:27
i am obligated to sell some spxu at spx 1052 if it gets there
12:54
the spx bias is slight down, at this minute..subject to change
12:42
1068 should provide some R in spx if it moves up. It can go higher, but there is R at 1066/68. Also, the reaction to 1068 is impt. if spx does NOT stall there, then momentum should increase to upside. I would expect a stall around there though. also, IMHO, if 1068 is NOT hurdled THEN THE BULLS ARE IN TROUBLE. THEY NEED HIGHER. Over 1068 is not required today if they hold it up around 1052. Will need to see what charts look like later today at 330/400pm
12:38
spx is HOLDING its rsi support trendline 15min...until thats broken, bias is up. Then why am i short? why didn't i go long? because i never found a good long entry that i liked, but the short "scalp" presented itself so i took it.
12:24
expecting a triple bear diverg formation in spx, which will then be part of my signal to short swing...not there yet. spx has the dbl diverg now...often the dbl divergence will cause the reversal,,,,but my work suggests that this time it need a triple diverg and then head lower.
12:00
one minute later, it breaks ....lets see ...
11:59
spxu break of 44.02 should give .17 and fill my .11 limit
11:56
sold some spxu for small profit at 43.80....reducing risk
11:52
so far, spxu fell just short of my first target at 44.11 (made 43.99), and declined somewhat. still behaving. but i expected 44.11 first, and then the behaviour i'm seeing now. need to watch this...last 4378.
11:44
spxu targets 44.19 and 44.66 with targets in between determined later
11:41
why is spx holding here and not declining to my target? Because ES has higher support levels than spx for now, and its stalling at the ES supports here. still expect down then up
11:39
i have no swing short signal yet...nor long....looking, waiting patiently
11:29
spx charts say lower here, then another pop higher. last 1058
10:59
if spx breaks 1061, 1066 next
10:22
spxu held at 43.43 support so far at 43.51. could easily break lower.
10:12
spxu at a support area at 43.75 and 43.43... see if stall.
next support is 42.95
9:55
gap theory suggests that spx will make a HIGHER high today intraday, later not now. spx 1053 last.
9:03
THere is resistance at spx 1055 (actually 1053 with a 2 point overshoot). See if that holds or breaks higher. Possible good quick, short entry at 1055 but I'll wait.
8:13 AM
For the next hour, IF 1050 ES holds as resistance, ES charts now suggest a retest lower to 1046, then 1044. Last ES 1048.50. I expect 1050 to hold, then the test lower. 1044 likely will hold, then bounce up, then retest again. If 1044 breaks lower, the the Bear scenario below is my expectation.
Bullish: ES stays over 1043 for 1049.75, 1062, 1064
Bearish: ES breaks below 1043 for 1039, 1035, 1031, with 1031 and 1026 key #s
8:01 AM
The ES has developed a negative bearish divergence suggesting lower prices, BUT SPX has a stronger BULLISH divergence, suggesting higher prices. The tug of war between the conflicting neg and pos divergences should keep things rangebound with upward bias until 1:30/2:00 PM.
Why? This is not uncommon when the futures trade in a TREND overnight instead of a range. So now there is a tug of war between the two. Again, the SPX bullish divergence is stronger, so I would expect that prices range trade until about 1:30 / 2:00 PM with an upward bias. The tug of war between the conflicting neg and pos divergences should keep things rangebound.
I will also be watching to see if SPX hurdles over its resistance levels and trendlines, or whether the R holds. ES has already breached one of its downtrend lines, but is lower than its second downtrend line. Despite the increase overnight, ES and SPX still are in a downtrend.
7:45AM
Well ES followed the scenario I thought it would per my 12:25AM post, making a high of 1049.25 (just under the 1049.75 target from 12:25AM). They made a low of 1040.75 and high of 1049.25.
Wedn 12:25AM
These charts are a bit tricky here right now. For tomorrow, the SPX can go either up or down. Data to support both cases.
For the ES overnight for the next 8 hours, here's what I see. Again, these charts are somewhat tough to grasp.
Right now, charts suggest a move up to 1049.75/1050 as most likely scenario.
Bullish: ES stays over 1043 for 1049.75, 1062, 1064
Bearish: ES breaks below 1043 for 1039, 1035, 1031, with 1031 and 1026 key #s
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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