Friday, November 13, 2009

TZA vs SPX... Russell 2000 weaker than SPX

I am overall bearish on both the SPX and Russell 2000 for now.  As we know in these markets, that can quickly change from bearish to bullish.  But until the signs reverse, I remain bearish. What would change my stance? Among other things, (1) They would need to make higher highs and higher lows (maybe they are in the process (especially SPX) of doing that now??? We need to wait and see).  (2) The RSI downtrend purple line must break higher and then establish an uptrend line (also possibly happening now).

If I am bearish, why did I abandon my TZA swing position today? That's covered in a separate posting here.

Chart notes below. These charts are telling us much more than I have elaborated below, but here are some salient points:

Russell 2000 Daily chart (left side)
- Possible bearish double top, or complex bearish Head And Shoulders
- If the Double Top pattern (or HS) plays out, then a decline to 478 is expected on a break under 552. The 478 is a rough target, I'll define it more precisely later, but in that area.
- Note how the November peak (so far) is close to the August peak (around 589.58)
- Divergence power --- The bearish divergence between price and RSI (as well as MACD) from 9/18 to 10/16 forecasted that prices would decline after the 10/16 high. The slope of the purple price line is flat, while the slope of the RSI is down, suggesting a decline. Prices did decline very close to the prior low around 552.
-The RSI (and MACD) is still below its downtrend line, which suggests lower prices, and confirms the current downtrend.
 - MACD histogram is bearish. Look at the last 4 green peaks, and notice that each one is smaller. Conversely, notice that each of the last 4 red peaks is progressively larger. This is a strong indication that prices will pierce lower than 552 (to the projected target of around 478.

SPX SP 500 Daily chart (right side)
- Price / RSI bearish divergences (just like the daily chart, above notes)
- Note that on 10/16 and 11/20, the SPX made a double high (around 1100 and 1105). HOWEVER, notice the Russell 2000 on the same dates...it made a LOWER high... from 625 and to 597. This shows that since 10/16, the Russell 2000 is weaker than the SPX.
- The slope of the Russell 2000 RSI DTL is steeper than the SPX RSI DTL, again suggesting that the Russell 2000 is weaker than the SPX.


The chart below shows how Russell 2000 is weaker than SPX. This is why I am seeking TZA.
The blog has cut off the right side of the chart but if you click on the chart, a larger view will pop up, showing the entire chart.




* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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