1:26
technically spx did not gap down today (barely missed it) but the SPY did gap down. I differentiate between an "open below yesterday's close" and a "gap down". Gap down requires an open that is less than yesterday's low, not yesterdays close.
1:04
This is interesting. The SPX cash shows that SPX remains in the rectangle range with only a minor violation of its support, BUT BUT the ES overnight shows a breach of its range support of 1083 down to 1067, back to 1098. the ES could be forming a bull inv HS but a decline to 1081/84 is likely before a breakout higher, if it breaks higher.
If 1083 does not hold, then 1075/72 ES, then 1067 is likely again on break of the 1075/72.
The upside target would be 1107 on a breakout using the inv HS
1:03
vix closed over 24.44 at 24.73 though...that is a close over crucial support
12:59
Taking some profits in faz I bought earlier. sold 21.10 faz vs 20.44 for 3% in 2 hours
12:51
A VIX close over 24.44 would be bullish for VIX (bearish spx)
12:39
A close at or under 1097 would confirm the bearish eve start 3 day candle pattern, with 1095 or 1086 even more bearish.
11:43
Trade: Swing... bought FAZ at 20.44. Stop 18.96 for now. One dollar less that the 21.44 that I sold it for. (The exact one dollar is a co-incidence, not a trading strategy). Might be able to get a better price on FAZ, but I'm taking the day off. This is a swing, so good enough.
faz could test
20.30, even break and go lower, but
i'm fine with this for
starters...re-investing profits from
pre-mkt sale
11:17
As expected, the ES recovered, hit the 1087, and went to 1095 target. Last 1096. Targets still 1095, 1103, 1107.
8:50
even if ES recovers back up, i still expect more downside in the coming hours, days. the up targets above are for the retracement.... definitely the charts suggest down again. I will be looking to add to swing short positions, at the right prices (hopefully right price)
8:44
To get higher to 1087/beyond, ES will need to hold 1078 (preferably 1082), then up to 1087, back down to 1082, then up past 1087 to other targets. 15min charts do suggest a pullback if 1087 is hit, before higher.
Conversely, as long as resistance holds, ESP the 1084, then ES is headed back down. Right now, charts suggest that the bounce up from 1067 is not finished, but it all depends on the support/resistance and levels.
8:38
ES backed off the 1084 R after briefly piercing it, but still charts do suggest another pop up in ES to the 1087... The 1084 is going to be tough to crack, unless the bulls do it soon. It was the prior rectangle support, now trying to be converted to R. The longer the bears keep it under 1084, the harder it will be for the bulls to hurdle it.
8:33
Trade: selling half of faz here at 21.44 from 18.65 for profit of 2.79 or 14.95%
8:25
If ES decides to move up: short term fibs: 1084 is 38% fib, 1094 is 62% fib, 1102 (72%). It is interesting that the fibs, levels, and pattern targets all point to similar numbers.
8:13am
ES at 1084 now, barely marginally overcoming the 1083 on a try for 1087. Charts suggest that the 1087 will be hit. If 1087 is achieved, then 1007 is the next target. It sounds crazy, but ES could get the 1007. Would need 1087,1095, 1103, 1107. Could be a volatile day. Of course, back down to 1067, 1060, 1053 is also possible. its all about support and resistance.
5:33
V pattern in 15min suggests a move up to 1087 test if 1083 hurdled. last ES 1081.
4:51 AMES futures are at 1079, down sharply 32 points right now or 2.82%, having made a low of 1067. That important 1083 support level (the prior rectangle support) was broken. Now, let's see if that 1083 support has been converted to resistance or not. Can the ES hurdle back above it? It tried once this morning to hurdle 1083 and failed, but that's expected on the first try.
There is a bullish divergence in ES that suggests a move back up to 1103 if it manifests itself if 1083 can be hurdled. Watching the 1083, and also the possibile formation of an Inverse Head And Shoulders or a vertical move up.
For now, 1083 and 1067 are key support and resistance numbers, followed by 1103.
TRADE: Unfortunately I closed out my TZA swing on Wednesday to reduce risk, BUT I still have the FAZ from 18.66. I likely will seel FAZ around 20/20.20 if able and the re-enter on a pullback. This is the second time recently that I've played FAZ from around 18.65 to 20.10 ... the chart shows a clear rectangle in the 60 min with 21.28 and 21.83 as next targets.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
There is a bullish divergence in ES that suggests a move back up to 1103 if it manifests itself if 1083 can be hurdled. Watching the 1083, and also the possibile formation of an Inverse Head And Shoulders or a vertical move up.
For now, 1083 and 1067 are key support and resistance numbers, followed by 1103.
TRADE: Unfortunately I closed out my TZA swing on Wednesday to reduce risk, BUT I still have the FAZ from 18.66. I likely will seel FAZ around 20/20.20 if able and the re-enter on a pullback. This is the second time recently that I've played FAZ from around 18.65 to 20.10 ... the chart shows a clear rectangle in the 60 min with 21.28 and 21.83 as next targets.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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