Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

SUMMARY

Closed FII for loss.
Closed SDS for loss.
Closed TZA for profit.

328
obligated to sell a piece at .74 if filled limit....others still in place

327
sds bullish W pattern in 2min chart

319
another crouching tiger bullish sds...suggests 36.97...last .70

305
spx island top, or bear eve star could happen. however, spx still has some gas left...it could go higher, so i'll wait for shorting it. and not a place i want to enter new longs

256
sds stop changed from .47 to .43...i will give it a lil more room...negligible diff in profit/loss. i was nearly stopped out earlier when sds hit .50 and was .47 stop

253
my .47 stop order remains...if sds can hold .55 it has a chance of a 3min bull diverg and a thrust up

251
the sds pop up one more time sceario...confidence now only at 45%...charts have changed...let it fall too low...last sds .67

247
sds looks like it wants to try .83,,,short of the HOD .91...for now. last .70. so 37.83 miight be a nice place for a limit order to take profits in sds if you entered at 37.06ish.

243
close to sds buy setup signal, but not yet, and its getting late...close to 3pm

240
i have a weak long daytrade setup. and weak short one. so...do nothing...though bias slightly down so holding that sds swing

234
sds charts suggest a push up to 38ish, though not today. Charts say this, but I am unable to get an estimated time of when it would get there, if it does. My timing analysis isnt working with the current chart setups in daily hourly 60 15 3. and there are contradictory things that say sds might not get to 38 but rather turn down

230
ES overnight shenanigans could cause an open like today (up in spx). also amazingly i dont have a short swing setup in my charts. charts suggest that spx might have one more push up, though not necessarily to a new high.

220
spx 1091 has even stronger support than 1094...if it gets to 1091 it will likely stall. last 1097

216
this pattern in sds now...usually suggests a lil more downside, followed by one last thrust up...idk how high. might not get the thrust up...but usually will. sds 3668 last


215
sds marginally pierced under my ideal rsi number, but the prices held...still ok for now unless support breaks
 
211
bulls will want to push higher right here, spx 1097. bears will want to hold this down or could be a rollercoaster ride up down everyway. right now, bears are in control intraday, idk for how long lol

207
sds has some bear divergences now in its 3min. it's capable of ignoring them for the rest of today IF it can hold support. if not, a pullback under .47 could materialize.

202
sds trgt 3727 next if it hurdles 3711....last only 3676. but sds needs to hold 3666 ideally

158
it could take 4 times intraday for sds to pierce that .93.... or spx 1094

157
this is what that crouching tiger setup does...those lil pounces in price

156
FII headed for 27.30...last .48

155
70% confidence the spx will break the 1094

152
spx gravestone bear doji forming daily. ominous. amazingly...i still have no swing short setup...

150
when 1094 spx cracks should see 1091 fast

149
i still do not have any setups for swings long or short

144
if sds sustains over 36.83 then upside momen should pick up... taking spx down to poss 1091. charts suggest spx has unfinished downside to 1091. last 1094

1:42
sds hit .91....close to .93 target
141
sds hit .77 after .76 stall and immediately popped to .82 fast, as expected. looking for .93

138
spx support around 1091ish

137
sds .77 implies .93ish

1:33
sds tick continues bullish. suggests 36.93 next

1:21
I will close out my FII today probably for a loss of about 3%. I don't want the overnight gap up risk on this stock... I do believe there is downside in it, I just do not want the risk, so I'll take a small loss on it instead. Not exiting yet, but will by 3:55pm. FII is no longer behaving, so out it goes

TRADE: STOP order to COVER FII short if 27.78 hit. last 27.65
1:17
intraday--sds tick chart forming possible complex bullish chart that points to 3709ish if manifested/realized

1:03
ds is close to that "crouching spring up" formation (down for spx). (Crouching tiger is my own name for the setup i see in the charts... not an industry term).
 
1:01 pm
charts suggest a lower low daily in spx. last 1097

1257
the SPY candle daily is ominous shooting star type thing.
 
1248
ES trying to break the 1097 R...charts suggest 40% confidence that it will

1244
no tza entry yet. could work here at 1212 but its early risky. i'm not in

1242
spx now broke over the DTL line intraday...see if backtests

1234
stops set in sds 36.47... i will rake loss and buy back something else. still has merit under that but i prefer to exit and reenter, prob in tza or DIA

1227
spx testing the 15min DTL now...R is holding for now ...last 1096

1222
the spx DTL is holding...still bearish

1214
ok mixed signals in spx. still bearish but lotsa noise and contradictions. a possible broadending formation (intraday) could be developing...lets hope not cuz those are crazy hard to trade. the inv cup/handle is bearish. rsi stoch macd mild bearish. intraday bear down channel forming. the broadening formation, if we get it, suggests high volatility and in this case there is no bias for it to go up or down intraday. spx last 1097.

1210
36.98 and 37.06 R in sds...expecting stalls there...no stall is bullish sds (bear spx)

1208
i have a short spx signal here, BUT wow i would try for a better entry...tricky...spx 1095 last. no new entry for me, already got some sds

1207
charts suggest lower spx


1205
ok the tza served its purpose... now any sds loss is fully covered... actually green for both combined

1201
sds gap R marginally pierced higher

1157
tza continues higher but i'm out. last 12.30

1127
stopped out at .13....took profits on other piece.

1121
tza///...i am gonna sell it if it doesnt hold here and try buyback....could go either way

1117
taking 3.5% profits on piece of tza here at .24

1115
TARGETS: next tza target 12.40.  or 12.37, 12.58, 12.77. will update as day goes on

1109
tza 12.21 limit filled. finally a limit fill not missed by one penny

1106
stop raised to some of tza to 11.97

1057
TRADE: moving stop to near break even on tza

10:56
conservative traders will take profits here tza 1212 into strength. i'll sell some here. holding rest. i have limit sell more tza 12.27...another nice tgt

10:55
tza target  12.58 on break sustained over 12.21 but stall poss at 12.28
TARGETS: for now 12.21, 12.37, 12.58, 12.77. will update as day goes on

10:52
ok tza blew through 1205...i expected stallthere....momentum. stall at 1214 expected too.

10:47
tza stall expected at 12.05. last 11.97

10:38
TRADE: in tza at cost 11.84, stop 11.57 for now, mental stop 11.72.
TARGETS: for now 12.21, 12.37, 12.58, 12.77. will update as day goes on

10:30
still expecting a pullback in spx. the daily charts are suggesting poss dbl high with a decline, but are still bullish. rsi and macd not in agreement, so this is tricky.

9:31
1098 ES still holding as support. still expecting a break below it as mentioned below. could bounce up first, to mayb 1100, per my charts anyways.

9:23AM
a break under dow 10,287 is likely to trigger at least a minor pullback

8:56AM
Futures made a new high at 1102 and have gone down some to 1099. If this were happening during trading hours (9:30--4:00), I would expect a test of 1098, that 1098 would break, and then a test of 1094.  

4:46AM
ES held 1093 all night and has now thrust up to new highs at 1101/25. Last 1100

11:11 PM
ES continues toward the 1091/90 first target. Although it "looks" like it might get there by midnight, ES can bounce up and down and not land at 1091 until 3:00 AM ish.

It's too early to tell now, if the downtrend continues, then ES would be around 1089 at 9:30 market open time

10:48PM
Charts suggest a test of 1091. Last ES 1094.

8:06 PM
Last ES is 1095.  ES hit 1097 tonight, piercing the 1095 mentioned below. Nightly support is at 1085.
I'll be watching to see if 1097 is pierced higher to test the all important 1099. If 1099 is pierced, then ES will have made a new high.

Right now, the charts suggest a decline in ES to test 1094, 1091, 1085.


6:55 PM
Will be interesting to see if ES hurdles over 1095 tonight and gaps up tomorrow.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".