Tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)

3:16
spxu has stalled here because the bullish falling wedge dtl is declining of course....pushing right up against it now at 4606
 
3:13
15min spx has bearish diverg

3:09
spxu bear rising wedge is converting to an up channel

3:06
spxu targets daytrades--4637, 4673.
spxu coiling suggests another pop up (down spx). spx 1041.
 
2:53
i do believe spxu has more upside but i'm participating via swings and position trades.
47.04 is next target, but can go much higher.
2:46
another pop higher in spx is allowed. onemore

2:33
bear diverg setting up in spx suggesting lower. could go higher as the diverg is carved out more. but then lower. spx 1045.

bear diverg setting up in spx suggesting lower. could go higher as the diverg is carved out more. but then lower. spx 1045.
2:25
sell 25% spxu .63limn

2:21
removing sso .29 stop....its too tight...can hold this as swing if needed.

2:18
in spxu 45.46 stop .29...

2:15


2:13
stop raised to .47 for half my sso, at breakeven other half left

2:12
i think sso has one more push up. last 33.55

2:10
sell some sso 33.78 lim

1:11
poss bull flag spx 3min...need to watch out here for upside in spx since i'm short. i think it will fail or else i would exit spxu...but watching. last 1041.

12:59
spxu 3min bull divergence suggests higher spxu.  it's a weak divergence, but it is there. last 45.93

12:58
if spxu keeps consolodating above44.75, its bullish for spxu (bear spx)

12:52
in 45.82 spxu

12:47
i'll do spxu 45.73 lim if filled. last 45.97

12:05
spx still inside my falling wedge, with marginal violations only

12:02
charts suggest spx has good chance of breaking over 1040 R

11:37
spx is now bearish officially in the 15min timeframe charts. barring any surprise by the bulls, the 1034 should be tested, then prob break.

11:32
bears need to break 1034 then 1029 to get downside going to 1022/16. last spx 1038

11:14
there is a lot of chop and volatility. to simplify this and remove all this chop noise, my analysis shows a rectangle intraday range of 1034-1045 spx.  A violation of 1034 or 1045 should produce a breakout in the direction of the break.

Now, there is a complex coil within that range that is hard to see, but after removing the "noise", it's there. At current volocity and other conditions, spx is scheduled to chop around until  12:05 pm, at which time spx should tell us if it will breakout or continue this range trade.

Bias is for a break lower at 12:05. The time is based on current conditions and could change; it's more probable it would happen at 11:51 or 1:07, but 12:05 is what the analysis suggests.

10:55
my 60min analysis is still bearish. that does not mean spx cannot go higher, just that the higher moves are not jeopardizing the 60min downtrend, for now

10:50
spx just broke over it 15min R line. we are seeing the the possibl pop that i mentioned at 10:11AM... but upsdie might be limited. today is very choppy up down up down.

10:44
48.35 is another target for spxu added on break over 47.41

10:41
limit sell 20% of my spxu at 47.38 vs 46.12 for $1.26 or 2.7%
 
10:32
SPXU is building a bear rising wedge now, but there is still plenty of upside in it before it breaks lower. IF IF it stays in the wedge, and support holds, at current conditions and velocity and volatility, my analysis suggests spxu to 49.03 possible before a break lower. last spxu 46.11

10:30
If spx breaks and sustains under 1032, the high for today has likely been made. spx last 1040.
 
10:28
right now, 60min trend down, 15min is confused with down bias but a pop allowed in 15min
  
10:20
because of that whipsaw move down lower in spxu, i now have even higher targets for spxu. will update in a few.

10:18
my analysis suggests that part of my spxu daytrade will be kept as a swing, no confirmed swing setup yet, but developing. This is one way to build swings (start with daytrade position, then keep some of it if setup for swing comes). Daytrade and swing and position trades all have 3 different setups and parameters.

10:14
selling 30% spxu at .22 for small 10cent profit..only to reduce risk, not for the 10cents...have lotsa shares

10:11
spx still has a little more upside...last spx 1043...but still bearish on the 60min charts

10:08
spxu supports at 45.80, 45.27, 45.08

10:05
avg spxu cost 46.12

10:03
buy more spxu lim 46.17. filled.
 
10:01
spxu support at 45.27. last spxu 46.01

9:58
spxu hit 45.88....cmon hit .75 and fill my .83 lim buy

9:55
spxu could hit 4583...this is why i always allow 4 entries for myself on daytrades (4 buys). then, i will sell all of the daytrade at targets, or keep a piece of it as swing by not selling it.

9:49
in spxu 46.37

9:47am
limit spxu 45.82 if filled

9:45am
tempted to enter spxu here...at 46.26...will wait

9:42
es testing 1035 now. break over it has 1040 as trgt

9:38
spx testing its UTL uptrend support line (intraday 15min only) now at 1037. see if it holds, if not, lower spx. rsi 15min support line also under test. i think it will break lower.

9:34
I will consider selling swing spxu at 47.81 if it gets there. last 46.90. i also have more shorts in my longer term "positions" acct.

9:19 am
my analysis says lower ES but it's so close to open at 9:30 that the analysis has limited value.

8:55
the up vol is more than down vol on ES, but pivots are holding as R. if es can stay over 1030 it could build up some momen to revisit 1035 (where it went on the 1026 bounce). But my bias still down until those R are taken out.

8:26
Adjustment: ES is bearish under 1044 (down trendline (DTL) resistance), 1037, or 1033. I'll allow 1044 because that would touch the DTL and maintain the downtrend if 1044 is not violated higher. Also, 1040 is the breakdown to 1026 level. So there are multiple mini-intraday R in place.  (of course, on high volume, those mini-R can be taken out quickly with a surge up, but for now, that's what we have).

Note that this is "intraday" bearish. I'm still bearish for position trades (under 1088) and swings (under 1050/70) at higher levels posted before.

8:12
The ES did hold at 1026 and is now at 1033. Remember, 1033 and 10337 are important intraday resistance levels.  the es has a 60min bull divergence that suggests a type of intraday dbl bottom, but because this occurred pre-market it's validity is weakened. The bounce from this divergence could be only up to 1037/40.  So we will watch the pivots.

6:20 AM
ES has come close to the 1026 target hitting 1026.50.  If 1026 target breaks lower, aggressive declines could occur. 1026 held on the first test, which is expected. Lets see what develops.

4:59 AM
ES is now down 11 points!

At 10:36 PM email last night, I suggested ES would break 1040 lower at 1:15AM. It happened right on time. Since then, targets 1 (1036) and 2(1031)  were reached. 1026 and 1021 are next downside targets. Other upside reversal targets are listed at the bottom of this post (10:46 PM)

This is why on Friday and Saturday, I suggested it was risky holding longs overnight. Of course, ES can recover and bounce up before 9:30 AM and follow a bullish scenario below, but now, it's down.

If ES stays under 1033 or 1037, it would be very bearish or bearish.

12:00 AM
Update:
ES continues on the path described via email at 10:46 PM. No change, except that it is acting as expected thus far.

Right now, if 1042 holds as resistance, then the bias is down, with a projected break of 1040 lower around 1:15 AM. Last ES is 1042.

-----

10:46 PM  (first sent via email)

Thus far, the ES futures have traded in a range from 1040 to 1044.

If 1040 breaks lower, expect 1036, then 1031, then 1026, then 1021.

If 1044 breaks higher expect 1048, 1051, 1056, 1064.

Right now, if 1042 holds as resistance, then the bias is down, with a projected break of 1040 lower around 1:15 AM. Last ES is 1042

But, overnight, anything can happen in the futures. Again, surprisingly somewhat, the current bias is down for the next 4 hours if resistance holds.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".