4:31
look at xlf daily and hourly. the daily xlf has a clear downchannel even in daily. But this is a steep channel and unsustainable. That does not mean that we don't see more down in xlf and spx, but that a bounce up should be expected (not necessarily tomorrow).
4:19pm
look at the 60min chart. 3 small green candles up. One big red candle down. then 3 small green up, with a lower high and within the body of the red candles.
3:49pm
i see no dangerous bull wedges in spx...they are channels or bear triangles.
3:46
i have 3 lines of R at 1044..it could hurdle that but i think not. IF it does, we could see upward accel
3:31
spx under 1044 is still bearish, for me. last is 1040
3:25
interim targets spxu 46.93, 47.23, 47.73
3:21
looking for spxu to break 46.78 for targets up to 47.73. will add interim targets later.
3:17pm
charts suggest lower spx from here. last spx 1037
3:16
ok 50% of spxu sold at break even at 46.67.....still have other 50%
3:03
btw, i'm not "averaging down" in an attempt to save a trade. charts still say higher spxu. if they did not, i would take the loss. Even a loss on the last trade won't wipe out the profits from earlier today, still very many profits. day will end with a profit for sure, because stops are set.
3:00PM
46.46 spxu filled. avg spxu is 46.67.
2:58
46.46 lmit more spxu if filled.
2:51
i have budget for 2 more entries in spxu daytrade, but will only take one more addition possibly. the charts still suggest lower spx, believe it or not. Earlier today, they did the same thing, and went down as expectes.
2:47
spxu has support around 4578/50ish on trendlines. see if it gets there, and if it holds
2:42
SPX is still below the RSI downtrend line 60min....still bearish in spx
2:35pm
spx 1042 will stop me out of spux at a loss
2:33
poss 3min spx bull dbl bottm intraday. 50% confidence only in it
2:22
spxu more at 46.66 for 46.88 avg cost. looking for 4640 spxu to hold
2:21
spxu 4707 buy filled
2:19
47.07 limit buy more spxu for quick trade again, if filled.
2:12
first test of LOD held, which will limit the downside if it does break. still expecting a break lower
2:09 pm
spx testing LOD now...expecting it to break lower
2:07 pm
obligated to sell 1/4 of my remaing 20% spxu at 47.74 limit per my scalp rules, to leave 15%
2:04pm
3min chart is throwing breakout higher signals for spxu. last 47.35
1:55
spxu hit my 46.34 target, made .39, and dropped to .13. stall there was expected. charts say still higher. THIS TIME i lowered my target to .34 to get a fill (real target was .41 which i think was missed).
1:53
the inverted hammer that is setting up (daily spx candle) can be EITHER bullish or bearish...can discuss at 415pm
1:51
the 2 min momentum setup triggered 4707 hurdled on 2nd test spxu...now must sustain
1:49
spxu---heres 4707 breakout point now--lets see if breaks higher as expected,if it can hurdle .07
1:47
spxu---heres 4707 breakout point now--lets see if breaks higher as expected,if it can hurdle .07
1:44
nervouse spxu would exit here at 46.85,,,,i'll wait
1:43
spxu break over 47.07 should give 47.60 retest of high. spxu last 45.93
1:35
spxu target for scalpers is 47.34 limit sell. i'm holding my 20% longer though. probably stall at 47.51 but expecting higher hi.
1:32
1037 R has mostly held thus far, suggests re-test of the low 1030 and 50% confidence of new low.
1:23
spx 1037 is micro R.....see if it holds here on this test
1:18 pm
charts suggest spx will go lower at least one more time today, though how much i don't know. spx last 1034.
1:12PM
Below spx 1042 is bearish. Bulls will need to push over that, bears need to hold it down. last spx 1036
1:04
I see a possible bull diverg on spx 15 min, which is why i exited 80% of my daytrade spxu. i have no reason to exit my swings in spxu here. if spxu can hold 46.23 on any decline, that would be bullish for spxu. 46.90 last spxu.
12:54
SPX IS RIGHT AT TRENDLINE SUPPORT NOW. A BREAK BELOW HERE COULD CAUSE FIREWORKS. spx last 1031.
12:40
my average cost for the spxu daytradesi bought today was 45.22 (bought some at 46.03, 45.74, 45.90). Clearly my 46.03 entry was early, because it crashed to 44.47, but i did not exit because charts said it was still in uptrend. but its all now profitable.
12:35
the 45.87 limit and 46.07 were both filled in spxu, for profit. cost 44.90
12:31
i'm entering more spxu here at the mkt at 45.72 for swing. if able i will add more later. if able i will add more later at a lower price. But i want to participate in this.
12:28
i'm very close to a swing SHORT signal here...very...unconfirmed yet
12:17
grrr it hit .83 not .87..... i'm missing my limit sell orders by pennies today. these 3x etfs are tough to get right. last time i missed .60 target by one cent, earlier today
12:16
it blew right through .60, 1 minute later. still got the .87 order to sell limit, 20% of pos
12:13
spxu scalp first target 45.60 , then 45.87, 46.07,
12:09
spxu triangle broke to upside, now backtesting
12:07
nervous shorts would sell spxu scalp here at 4546 from .90 for a 60 cent profit, i am waiting holdig
12:05
if spx breaks down here and begins forming desc triangle, the breakdown is 3minutes from ETA. my charts still say spxu UP, spx down
12:01
again, since i suggested "exit long" at 1053, spx hasn't moved up. i'd still keep the other 50% long here to try to ride higher, but would tighten up stops to 1142
11:49
right now i dont see spx over 1053 before going lower. last spx 1048
11:43
at current velocity, charts say break lower in spx at 11:57 from the coil, then form a desc triangle
11:36
if spxu stays over 44.75ish it remains in my coil. At current velocity chart suggest a break lower in spx (higher in spxu) at 12:44 but lunchtime could change that velocity.
11:31
my interpretation of my charts is to let spx consolodate and bounce around here for awhile longer, and then enter another short position via spxu. last spxu at 45.18. SPX can still rally from here, so I'll stand aside. I still have my other SPXU from a few days ago in swing.
11:30
here's that coil forming now that i mentioned at 9AM in spx 15min, that i expect to break lower or to convert to desc triangle
11:27
charts suggest a pop up in spx from 1047 here...but it might not make it over 1051. 1060ish would be other target
11:21
CANCELLING my 44.80 swing order, for now. it took too long
11:17
spxu is a very volatile instrument and requires wide stops. some traders might prefer sds or even SH instead. OR, spxu can be used with less up-front investment, but buying few shares allows lower cost but also need to set those wide stops.
11:12
limit sell 20% spxu scalp at 45.87 limit if filled, from 44.90 cost
11:06
since it missed by one cent, it will prob now go higher than .60, so removing the limit order...will do manually
11:04
grrr my limit at spxu 56.60 missed by one cent...went to .59.. still .60 first target. still it hit the target within one cent.
11:09
BELOW the market, I will take a swing in SPXU at 44.80. Last spxu 45.33.
11:02
since i sent the "exit long" post at spx 1050, it has not moved higher. there is a chance for a pop up then down, but i'm still bearish. spx last 1046
11:00
spxu right close to the .33 breakout higher point
10:59
amazingly, right now, my charts suggest some consolodation here, then lower in spx. last spx 1047
10:53
spxu scalp first target 45.60 on break over 45.27, then 46.07 on break over 45.34
10:47
there goes spxu scalp up, 2mins later to 45.16. watching for 45.27 stall, see if it breaks higher or lower. targets 46.07 on break over 45.34.
10:45
scalping here 4490 spxu. stop 44.38
10:43
spx has not broken over the 60min rsi downtrend R line, yet. so still bearish.
10:28
i am not long. if i were, my charts suggest cover 50% of long positions here at 1050 spx
10:27
I'm getting information from many people that have turned bullish because of this spx pop to 1051. I remain bearish until the spx 60min downtrend reverses. It is still in 60min down channel, setting up for a lower high or test of channel R line.
10:25
for my swings shorts, hourly trend is still down. i will not cover into this until the 60min trend changes. spxu still in profit zone now.
10:22
look at xlf daily and hourly. the daily xlf has a clear downchannel even in daily. But this is a steep channel and unsustainable. That does not mean that we don't see more down in xlf and spx, but that a bounce up should be expected (not necessarily tomorrow).
4:19pm
look at the 60min chart. 3 small green candles up. One big red candle down. then 3 small green up, with a lower high and within the body of the red candles.
3:49pm
i see no dangerous bull wedges in spx...they are channels or bear triangles.
3:46
i have 3 lines of R at 1044..it could hurdle that but i think not. IF it does, we could see upward accel
3:31
spx under 1044 is still bearish, for me. last is 1040
3:25
interim targets spxu 46.93, 47.23, 47.73
3:21
looking for spxu to break 46.78 for targets up to 47.73. will add interim targets later.
3:17pm
charts suggest lower spx from here. last spx 1037
3:16
ok 50% of spxu sold at break even at 46.67.....still have other 50%
3:03
btw, i'm not "averaging down" in an attempt to save a trade. charts still say higher spxu. if they did not, i would take the loss. Even a loss on the last trade won't wipe out the profits from earlier today, still very many profits. day will end with a profit for sure, because stops are set.
3:00PM
46.46 spxu filled. avg spxu is 46.67.
2:58
46.46 lmit more spxu if filled.
2:51
i have budget for 2 more entries in spxu daytrade, but will only take one more addition possibly. the charts still suggest lower spx, believe it or not. Earlier today, they did the same thing, and went down as expectes.
2:47
spxu has support around 4578/50ish on trendlines. see if it gets there, and if it holds
2:42
SPX is still below the RSI downtrend line 60min....still bearish in spx
2:35pm
spx 1042 will stop me out of spux at a loss
2:33
poss 3min spx bull dbl bottm intraday. 50% confidence only in it
2:22
spxu more at 46.66 for 46.88 avg cost. looking for 4640 spxu to hold
2:21
spxu 4707 buy filled
2:19
47.07 limit buy more spxu for quick trade again, if filled.
2:12
first test of LOD held, which will limit the downside if it does break. still expecting a break lower
2:09 pm
spx testing LOD now...expecting it to break lower
2:07 pm
obligated to sell 1/4 of my remaing 20% spxu at 47.74 limit per my scalp rules, to leave 15%
2:04pm
3min chart is throwing breakout higher signals for spxu. last 47.35
1:55
spxu hit my 46.34 target, made .39, and dropped to .13. stall there was expected. charts say still higher. THIS TIME i lowered my target to .34 to get a fill (real target was .41 which i think was missed).
1:53
the inverted hammer that is setting up (daily spx candle) can be EITHER bullish or bearish...can discuss at 415pm
1:51
the 2 min momentum setup triggered 4707 hurdled on 2nd test spxu...now must sustain
1:49
spxu---heres 4707 breakout point now--lets see if breaks higher as expected,if it can hurdle .07
1:47
spxu---heres 4707 breakout point now--lets see if breaks higher as expected,if it can hurdle .07
1:44
nervouse spxu would exit here at 46.85,,,,i'll wait
1:43
spxu break over 47.07 should give 47.60 retest of high. spxu last 45.93
1:35
spxu target for scalpers is 47.34 limit sell. i'm holding my 20% longer though. probably stall at 47.51 but expecting higher hi.
1:32
1037 R has mostly held thus far, suggests re-test of the low 1030 and 50% confidence of new low.
1:23
spx 1037 is micro R.....see if it holds here on this test
1:18 pm
charts suggest spx will go lower at least one more time today, though how much i don't know. spx last 1034.
1:12PM
Below spx 1042 is bearish. Bulls will need to push over that, bears need to hold it down. last spx 1036
1:04
I see a possible bull diverg on spx 15 min, which is why i exited 80% of my daytrade spxu. i have no reason to exit my swings in spxu here. if spxu can hold 46.23 on any decline, that would be bullish for spxu. 46.90 last spxu.
12:54
SPX IS RIGHT AT TRENDLINE SUPPORT NOW. A BREAK BELOW HERE COULD CAUSE FIREWORKS. spx last 1031.
12:40
my average cost for the spxu daytradesi bought today was 45.22 (bought some at 46.03, 45.74, 45.90). Clearly my 46.03 entry was early, because it crashed to 44.47, but i did not exit because charts said it was still in uptrend. but its all now profitable.
12:35
the 45.87 limit and 46.07 were both filled in spxu, for profit. cost 44.90
12:31
i'm entering more spxu here at the mkt at 45.72 for swing. if able i will add more later. if able i will add more later at a lower price. But i want to participate in this.
12:28
i'm very close to a swing SHORT signal here...very...unconfirmed yet
12:17
grrr it hit .83 not .87..... i'm missing my limit sell orders by pennies today. these 3x etfs are tough to get right. last time i missed .60 target by one cent, earlier today
12:16
it blew right through .60, 1 minute later. still got the .87 order to sell limit, 20% of pos
12:13
spxu scalp first target 45.60 , then 45.87, 46.07,
12:09
spxu triangle broke to upside, now backtesting
12:07
nervous shorts would sell spxu scalp here at 4546 from .90 for a 60 cent profit, i am waiting holdig
12:05
if spx breaks down here and begins forming desc triangle, the breakdown is 3minutes from ETA. my charts still say spxu UP, spx down
12:01
again, since i suggested "exit long" at 1053, spx hasn't moved up. i'd still keep the other 50% long here to try to ride higher, but would tighten up stops to 1142
11:49
right now i dont see spx over 1053 before going lower. last spx 1048
11:43
at current velocity, charts say break lower in spx at 11:57 from the coil, then form a desc triangle
11:36
if spxu stays over 44.75ish it remains in my coil. At current velocity chart suggest a break lower in spx (higher in spxu) at 12:44 but lunchtime could change that velocity.
11:31
my interpretation of my charts is to let spx consolodate and bounce around here for awhile longer, and then enter another short position via spxu. last spxu at 45.18. SPX can still rally from here, so I'll stand aside. I still have my other SPXU from a few days ago in swing.
11:30
here's that coil forming now that i mentioned at 9AM in spx 15min, that i expect to break lower or to convert to desc triangle
11:27
charts suggest a pop up in spx from 1047 here...but it might not make it over 1051. 1060ish would be other target
11:21
CANCELLING my 44.80 swing order, for now. it took too long
11:17
spxu is a very volatile instrument and requires wide stops. some traders might prefer sds or even SH instead. OR, spxu can be used with less up-front investment, but buying few shares allows lower cost but also need to set those wide stops.
11:12
limit sell 20% spxu scalp at 45.87 limit if filled, from 44.90 cost
11:06
since it missed by one cent, it will prob now go higher than .60, so removing the limit order...will do manually
11:04
grrr my limit at spxu 56.60 missed by one cent...went to .59.. still .60 first target. still it hit the target within one cent.
11:09
BELOW the market, I will take a swing in SPXU at 44.80. Last spxu 45.33.
11:02
since i sent the "exit long" post at spx 1050, it has not moved higher. there is a chance for a pop up then down, but i'm still bearish. spx last 1046
11:00
spxu right close to the .33 breakout higher point
10:59
amazingly, right now, my charts suggest some consolodation here, then lower in spx. last spx 1047
10:53
spxu scalp first target 45.60 on break over 45.27, then 46.07 on break over 45.34
10:47
there goes spxu scalp up, 2mins later to 45.16. watching for 45.27 stall, see if it breaks higher or lower. targets 46.07 on break over 45.34.
10:45
scalping here 4490 spxu. stop 44.38
10:43
spx has not broken over the 60min rsi downtrend R line, yet. so still bearish.
10:28
i am not long. if i were, my charts suggest cover 50% of long positions here at 1050 spx
10:27
I'm getting information from many people that have turned bullish because of this spx pop to 1051. I remain bearish until the spx 60min downtrend reverses. It is still in 60min down channel, setting up for a lower high or test of channel R line.
10:25
for my swings shorts, hourly trend is still down. i will not cover into this until the 60min trend changes. spxu still in profit zone now.
10:22
3min spx is forming bear dbl top in rsi, not confirmed yet, watching it. spx last 1050.
10:06
more spxu 44.74 here10:03
spx approcaching 1053 major R....if bulls push over that. last 1049 spx
9:57
spx just went down quite a bit. but the downspike could be a headfake bull trap...being careful myself
9:49
spxu targets slight adjustment:46.60 then 46.87 (not .98) then 47.13
9:47
46.60 then 46.98 first target for spxu on break over 45.30. will refine targets in a min
9:43
spxu filled at 46.03. note that i entered early here.
9:42
will enter spxu 46.03 limit if filled. last 46.13. this is an early entry, no official short signal yet.
9:35
we are close to spx 1045 now...on friday eve, i was not expecting it to hurdle this...lets see
9:07
if es 1034 breaks expect 1029 test. last 1037 ES
8:53
Clearly, ES 1038 is an important pivot for now. It's been trading all around it in a narrow range. The coil is developing earlier than i thought it would....let's watch. My bias is still down until ES hurdles and sustains over the R.
8:51 AM
GRRRRRRR..... I have no idea what happened, but all of my notes below from 7:00 AM until 8:50am were deleted somehow. I'll try to reconstruct it. Here is some of what was salvaged from earlier, but there was much more.
If SPX does open
above friday's close of 1036, I will be
looking for a coil to form, which
converts to bearish descending triangle.
Also, today could
tell us whether we get a double/triple
top, or a Head and shoulders instead
To clarify - in my
dbl/tripl top post at 7:44, i meant that
it's possible that instead of moving up
to form a HS, spx could just continue
lower without going much higher. to
the targets 1020, 1002, 955, 916,
877, 667,
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Keep up the good work,
ReplyDeleteChet Vincentz