Market Maker and Investment Bank levels:
at the end of each day, and during the day, i find it helpful to review the MM activity as one tool to use for buying selling opening closing swing trades
RUSSEL
9:44 AM Buying russel, selling TZA 935
9:46: MM dropped bid, TZA cleared for test of day high 942
10:05 MM: russel cleared for test of lows, tza trgt 945
10:32 MM: tza sell now raised to 952, last 941
GDX
1014 MM: GDX 3775--3800 they are in trade mode buy/sell levle, bias up
1020 MM: Investment Banks buy sell levels 37.00 / 40.00 (swings)
Thoughts and actions
400
one point away from guess: 1539 vs 1538 ES...could drop now
359
guess : 1538 es at 400pm
358
ES may drop...at 401--415pm...
356
MM just stepped in...bid near price...crash protecxtion if they stay
355
ES still can close at the lows....today...no MM support
352
unless this chagnges...this is daytraders buying here. along with some floor traders that know the "old" MM levels....imo
'
351
Major MM STILL have bids near lows....
350
Does SLW report tonite? if so, will watch that stock AH....SLW and NEM heavily related to GDX
347
this is the OLD level we talked about on ES...its stalled likely because some traders in the banks are doing a lil here....usually they do at the old "bigger boy" levels...should break tho unless MM step up bid....
346
there is NOT any MM support as ES tests it trgt here...on 3min charts...breakable...
343
MM dropped the ES and russel bids again
now sitting waiting at lows of day in both
*IF* they keep the bids down there LOL...
340
notice how UVXY has "caught up" to tza on its 15min chart patterns,,actually UVXY now stronger chart....like we talked about this morning
338
1539.50 new MM es buy level...interesting rite under 3min support
334
MM bid at 1541 es...likely lil test there
329
larger firms are NOT buying here now...on this lil pop up in es
322
3:06 PM post "1541 es test, stall, followed by 1539 would fit MM behavior"
following pattern: es at the 1541 trgt, and stalling lil green candles.
320
not gonna be easy to get over 847 uvxy today unless MM drop their bids or asks more aggressively in russel nasdaq spx
but its attainable trgt scalp
315
72% ES short rang 1542.50
313
72% ES short rang close to ringing...hasnt rung yet...
311
WOW these MM are moving faster than normal today...in and out fast...now buying a lil again here...not tradeable
309
UCO has bounced from its lows,,,but still not thrilled with this entry oil
308
8.46 UVXY trgt,,,just under highs. for now.
but higher trgts later in uvxy....why holding a bit giving time thru chop
306
1541 es test, stall, followed by 1539 would fit MM behavior
304
*** MM just dropped bid...tza cleared for 951 test up
303
es likely to do lil test of 1541 lower...will watch reaction...tho moving up a bit now
300
70% sell short on ES....72-78% better safer...
259
8.20 uvxy could work for scalp here, less shares wider stop,,,above preferred price but signalling poss good spot,,,,at 819 last
256
LOL...MM just raised bid...buying this here...typical
they are likely to disappear agin tho
256
but MM are NOT selling today,,,just 'buying less" during the down candles today...big diff between dropping bid and dropping ask...drop ask much more bearish
254
MM buy levels near the daily lows, Inv Banks even lower
253
ES too long on the 3min without up...danger for es here...es may see lower...tza uvxy higher today...except that its almost 3pm....MM atm are "saying" they are done buying, but that doesnt eliminate risk of frustration causing by them LOL
240
hmm...es may not bounce any higher,,,getting weak here 3min....
212
theres a shooting star in 15min tza atm...but in this pattern those stars are often retested (up)....shoot star not always bearish depending on pattern and surriounding candles, trend,etc
209
amazing how levels are hit, and then we see red candle afterward on the 3min charts
208
UVXY rejected near 848,,,lower now but expected that...still giving room here
208
****MM and Inv Bank levl: tza 963 trgt ...panic sell now raised to 9.81
206
UVXY hit 847 trgt...watching reaction
did NOT sell at trgt....waiting for higher ones
204
864 trgt after 847 uvxy
203
very close to getting fill here at 8.39 vs 8.43,,,,but waiting...the candles can get v big if it decides it wants to move...still expecting stall at 847 tho
201
: ***CANCELLED UVXY SELL at 8.43 for now...i want to give it some time to break higher, given es charts and time of day
159
TZA gap has been filled, and still think tza can go even higher today
145
fwiw: Market Maker buy levels are now LOWER than Inv Bank levels,,, not normal but also not unusual...this is first such occurrence today, but that usually means that MM are done buying for the day...HOWEVER its only first such occurrence, may take 2-3 times as they often jump back in just to frustrate everyone
139
i call them "panic" because its where the Investment Banks BUY when retail panics (selling)...and where Inv Banks sell when retail panic-exhuberant
139
Panic sell target in TZA now raised to 9.61...all other trgtrs same
those "panic" targets almost always stall...even if they are going higher (or lower) later...the panic targets are the "extremes" from Investment Banks
135
filled...out piece 1 in uvxy from earlier, 3% gain from entry this morn
133
missed uvxy order to sell by 3 cents LOL but not changing it, since its only the first trgt scalp....
should get .28ish uvxy over the .23 sell order, then .43
125
946 tza trgt overshoot hit...may stall pb...still have the .50--.56 trgt over it
121
MM jumping around beteen 944--948 tza sell...hard to get a single # when moving fast...946 was "old" number from hour ago
120
at trgt 1...heres 943 tza..will it overshoot for the 946? and .53?
117
tza trying for its 946/943 trgts here...
116
72% short rang, es,,,long uvxy
101
943 is "real resist" but calc shows lil overshoot stop cleaner
943 is safer trgt..
101
tza should test 946, stall, then poss the 952 trgt,today
100
at uvxy 800 but resist 812 needs to be cleared, then 825/830ish. still have same sell orders in uvxy as b4, for now
100
70% long rang on uvxy, short in es at 1546 just now
1246
just bought UCO long oil
1138
Russel: MM dropped bid, 3rd time, this time ES is near horiz resist...waching reaction
1137
MM are raising the bid, holding it there shortly, then dropping it,,,over and over,,on russel...means not actively buying this...tza still cleared for 9.50 higher
1131
UVXY orders: sell 2000 at 8.23. Sell 4000 at 8.43. hold the rest in port for higher. vse port.
1125
now that we have more UVXY...may sell some at 825--828, and more at 843..and more higher...if those levels are hit upside
1125
UVXY has stalled here at 7.99 and not moved lower with higher ES>..at least not yet./...good for uvxy atm
1124
**** TZA cleared for 953 again by MM
MM dropped bid, watching if follows thru...this is the SECOND time MM dropped bid today... again often takes a few tries for the followthru...if follows thru would be higher tza to 953, lower russl
1120
bought UVXY: vse port 2000 shares at 7.98. ES is at target from hour ago.
MM have NOT dropped bids, so not all pieces in place, but added a lil here
1114
if i didnt already have uvxy i'd be buying it here at 8.00,,,but not adding unless ES gets lil higher
if i see higher ES....OR if the MM pull the bids on russle or spx,,,then i'll add more
1106
ES is approaching 1545.50 short trgt ...no entries yet...watching atm
1104
out at 5.76 nugt. it may go higher but its at resist, and think it will pb where we can buy back lower again...
1058
i'm NOT sure how they hedged it, but UBSS inc has a HUGE long position in the vxx dating back to March 6-8... at the vxx 21 and 22 levels... over 1million shares, which is a lot for vxx since its so volatile
1056
UVXY green candles can move wicked fast, faster than the red ones, when a lil fear creeps in
1054
TF and ES futures are both down about same percent...(0.4) but a look at the 3min charts will show that the russel TF is weaker atm....tf is at lows, es above lows
1046
TZA: Panic buy levels of the day: 9.25 and 9.07
TZA: Panic sell level of day: 9.61
1045
MM raised bid on russel here... small nothing big
1043
if ES can bounce up to 1545.50...may be a spot to short, or uvxy long
1037
notice how gdx hit just over the MM sell level and has now pulled back a lil....
1028
SPY trgt lower 154.30...prior low on 60min chart, nothing complicated
1027
UVXY: have order in to sell half (4000 shares in vse port) at 8.43, and hold other half
this would require a new high over 8.22 and 8.33 resist
1022
VXX trgt 21.25: partial gap fill,not all, for now, trgt 1
1018
per prior post: russle approaching the test of lows that MM "cleared" it for :)
uvxy reacted well for quik scalp idea...in vse holding all the uvxy shares for now
1017
gdx MM are gently selling here but not bearish imo...cuz their buy level is also close to here...they are trying to hold price down in gdx in order to accum more shares, buy more...buy level 3775ish...if able they will buy lower, else later they will buy higher
1014
MM: GDX 3775--3800 they are in trade mode buy/sell levle, bias up
1005
MM: russel cleared for test of lows, uvxy here could work 798
1003
todays action in uvxy shows why its good to use limit orders in advance, if actively trading vxx uvxy xiv...for swings its less important unless its very near a swing target
1003
GDX and NUGT look good this morning. the daily candles have been small, which often results in a large move at some point...if the move comes today, bias would be to upside atm
944
MM buying atm...that may change,still see higher tza for swings, but atm MM buying
943
still have the UVXY from yest....i still see a nice move coming in it
same targets
937
ES hit yesterdays posted 1544 target lower to test, lil bounce here, still see 1530 and lower coming on ES swings short
Trades can be viewed at the links below.
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings
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* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
