LOOK at SPY volume daily....v low indeed
331
IF SPY closes near here or higher,,,,4pm swing system will signal "add to shorts"...swing signal that only triggers open or close of position at 4pm
316
if nugt gets 5.52ish i'll sell 1/3 of position swing
313
check out the volume in ES on this move...low low
310
i'm not selling any uvxy at this price....will hold for higher, even scalps
309
bigger MM are at IWM 93.87 waiting to buy....Inv Banks lower
305
***** MM just sold here, in the russel...not a lot...but they sold more than normal
might not see right away effects...but they r selling into this
302
GDX just hit its .30 trgt...still see higher tho may stall here now...break poss tho due to fast way it got here on 3min chart nugt gdx
259
NUGT: going for prev posted breakout...3min chart
257
is there a mini HS setting up on ES 3min charts?
251
MM buying russel just under here tza .39ish,,,but think they will drop, allowing .41--.43 tza
251
sudden green candle...LOOK at tza 3min chart....
239
watching same # in es...1553.50...if that breaks could see red candles on 3min charts
239
1-2% correction in oil likely,at least
239
USO oil...has one of those "price is too far away 5MA daily chart"...suggests lower uso oil...btw oil and spx have been moving same direction lately , if that holds it also says lower spx...SPY is not far from 5MA but oil is really far..
236
MM just dropped bids, but not by a lot...will allow modest pb, es 1555 last
226235
MM been holding bids most of day...watching if they drop either bid or ask, in russel and spx
SPX russle cant move aggressively lower until they do that
IWM flat from yest close atm, with red day candel...vs spy green candel
thats bearish for both spx and russel
210
GDX approaching mini .31 trgt...that prompted at the mkt nugt buy b4
152
IWM 15min MACD hist bars are under 0 but not "low enough" or "big enough" to merit a buy (quick swing timeframe)...suggests the IWM will make another trip lower coming hours days
so tza should pop higher in that timeframe
143144
144
if it gets 1553.50 ES i think it will ring
73% short es almost ready to ring
metnioened before....heres the "escape" opp for nervous UVXY to exit with a small gain....i'll hold it for the real trgts
139
atm...MM have no interest in selling any uvxy under 804
tho they will try to buy 760 and 740 if able
139
MM done buying VXX at moment,,,got the uvxy up a lil as a result tho
136
MM still buying vxx here...again could buy some and let it drop...imo it will return to this level and higher if it drops, uvxy 7.70
132
ES is very close now to prior highs 1555 and 1556...may test thoses first
if it does not test...would be kinda mean move from the pros
conversely can see minor berak higher aka stop run
but overall imo shorts look good regardless
130
72% rang again on ES, short at 1554.50 rang
130
NUGT almost ready to make expected break over 536...535 last
128
these 7.71 sales in UVXY are MM buying it....they also want it lower if poss 760 740....but least buying some here is good
127
MM buying some VXX here...
120
tza should at least test 940 941 and provide escape with small gains on uvxy bounce if it starts looking bad
120
may see a lil pain if uvxy moves lower, but imo looks good here
117
added uvxy
1553.50 ES< uvxy 773
111
theres the expectede higher lil small pop on ES...watching...may do it for 1-9 more minutes...may add more uvxy since its acting as expected in ES..3min charts
110
should break over 536 nugt today
108
ES "should" test 1553/55 higher first before lower,,,then may turn down, 3min charts....failur to test it agin would be bearish
and one could short on the failure...or short the bounce
106
another uvxy scalp entry is setting up now,,,i wont add since already have enough near this price (bought 1% below here)...but good for initial entries imo
modest trgts to start on uvxy...the big moves likely not come today but later
104
ASC triangle: you cant see it on ES but TZA has an ascending triangle if you look at the 5 and 15 period moving averages on 3min chart...the MA lines form a triangle
1251
WEDGES have the same tendencies: false break in wrong direction, followed by "real " move
1251
coil=pennant= sym triangle...all the same thing
1251
theres a bull flag pennant on intraday charts...but those things have a nasty habit of breaking lower to form a bull flag (but lower prices first even tho its a bullish formation)... personally i usually go long in flags NOT pennants
1244
when stoch first gets under 20 on IWM, does not mean its oversold...needs to stay there awhile b4 oversold,,some of biggest moves come when stoch is <25 or="">75
1242
tza 15min stoch likely to get up over 80, last 72
1242
IWM 15min stoch 14,3,3: stochK bounced off lower under StocD....i dont use stoch a lot in trading,,,but when that happens and stocK is near 25....it usually makes it below 20.... distilled means lower IWM russel
1237
often will get a lower low on 15min chart...followed by sideways
1237
SPY 15min MACD hist almost ready to cross 0---usually creates shortable entries on bounces on 3min when we see that on 15min...but the moves are sideways down rather than hard down, since 60min diff
1230
ewave followers would see an ABC on 15min uvxy,,,finished up b down and forming C up...tho i dont trade using ewave
1228
uvxy may get a few red candle now on 3min chart,,,followed by green...scalp i will prob exit after the red then green
1225
bruned thru them while typing LOL
1225
UVXY rite now has more retail sellers than buyers...think that will change and uvxy will move up...but needs to burn thru the retail sellers here first (retail = non-professional)
1223
790ish and 803 still uvxy trgts for scalp
1220
volume is very low...look at those intraday gaps on tza 3min chart...and tza is "not" a low vol etf
1219
tza at 940 resist,,,still think it tries 943
1219
ok got the red candle close..now simple horiz supports are trgts below with stall at each one,,,
1218
scalps would have entered half position before confirmation, near the 1555 initial discussion...then mayb add to it on confirmatino
sometimes confirmation comes too late
1215
that candel got a red close but does NOT count....watching next 3min candle....open close too narrow on last one
1212
data suggests bias atm is red
1212
the candle may kick in a 74% ES sell...similar to that nice reaction of the 72% earlier today
1212
this current 3min candle on es: may determin its direction for next 30-120 minutes...poss red close on this cande....seeing if it gets red or green
1210
NUGT made it to 536 rite near its 537 trt,,,watching for higher later
1155
meanwhile NUGT also trying to test its trgt 1
1154
now have 3000 shares uvxy in the vse port,,,so can sell at lil lower target..but still shooting for same trgtrs for now...
1153
added 773 uvxy
1151
getting ready to add more uvxy
1123
btw...VXX is based on "OPTIONS behaviour of the VIX"...NOT ont eh PRICE of the vix....this is much diff than SPY options which is based on price of SPY not spy options
that is, VXX does NOT follow the VIX chart..it follows the options on VIX
1119
5/15 MA on 3min uvxy: paints an ascending triangle and bull flag
1118
should test 5.37 near the 2%ish mark,,,swings much higher trgts
1118
nugt moving up nice since re-entry
up 1% since entry 30min or so ago
1115
daily spy today so far shows doji candle (aka indecision)...60min chart also has a doji with longer tails...the last move on the 15min was lower...thus bias down at the moment of indecision intraday....to retest near lows and poss lower low...to "decide"
1106
early entry on nugt so only 1000
1106
vse port...bought 1000 shares nugt at 5.27... may add more later...this is to replace half of the 2000 shares nugt sold yest at 565
1059
a lil lower,,,nugt will be entering "gift" territory...not yet
1054
DX UUP dollar charts getting choppy here...may see reactions in metals and spx es choppiness here too intraday
1051
compare IWM daily candle today to spy....iwm weaker and red vs spy doji
1048
next lower low in es...higher hi on tza and uvxy...likely to exit the uvxy scalp bought this morn and look to re-enter again later....still holding the uvxy swing thru all this noise thats scalpable
simple strat: buy the second lower low, sell the second higher high,,,works in all timeframes
1047
then 950 tza
1047
tza 941 trgt test up
uy: break overshoot the resist a lil imo tza
1046
uvxy pop came minute after 72% rang on es
1046
uvxy...example of how sometimes its better to avg up not down...trade working,,,add to it...
1045
there it is...broke :) uvxy
1044
yea uvxy set for test 2 of the 787 trgt now...with expected break to the 803 trgt
1041
initial entries valid here imo short es or long uvxy...willing to endure a bounce in es first, and if bounce comes, could add...1554 ES
1040
*** 72% rang es short
1036
MACD patterns: 60 min charts ....notice USO Feb 22 at 10am and march 4th 3pm...first made lower low as expected (nice short trade from feb 22) followed by big bounce after the 4th (nice long trade)
1031
theres an intersting formation on SPY macd...it also paints "patterns" like the 5/15 moving averages....theres a bear flag on the spy 60min macd...the signal line not the hist
MACD should diop back down again below 0.20ish to setup a long opp...may take awhile to form
1028
also poss nugt gdx re-entries might present long today
1027
next bounce on 3min oil chart uso CL...may short via sco
1017
added more uvxy..avg up not down
had to do this yesterday too...first entry "dip toe" just so happened to be right near low of day yest so bought 2nd piece higher....avg up not down,,,but $ profit will be more tho it will show a lower percent return
1014
as often happens...UVXY rejected near the trgt, but should overshoot 787 now for 804ish on next try...
1001
uvxy approaching t1 of 787...watching reaction..then 804 if no stall 787
948
UVXY 745/782 curr buy sell levles intraday
947
787 first trgt on uvxy...resist there
946
this uvxy #1 buy...based on 3min lil weakness in ES...see if it follows thru or not
946
UVXY bought 1 of possible 4 buys today...may add to it
yesterday uvxy acted well, gave 5%+ and 10%+ gains, in and out a few times
today may not act as well... ES may try to just go higher for few hours...will see
941
: 910 tza buy level one for today...still dont have panic buy level....
below prior 914 low
940
going to scalp uvxy again today...will try to wait a few minutes for ES to make a higher hi on 3min chart...if it takes too long i'll buy UVXY sooner
936
Yesterdays BUY levels for TZA were 925 and 915...tza is at the 925 now and may bounce...will have todays panic buy levels in few minutes....
Trades can be viewed at the links below.
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings
For details on the portfolio see this posting:
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
No comments:
Post a Comment