Monday, March 25, 2013

Monday thoughts

352359
sold half of nugt today, to reduce risk


volumewise today there was a lot of churn, so coulc see more chop in coming hours days...not all onesided volume today on spy es spx...mixed

350
ES...watching the close today....could be impt

345
the time is 15:44 and es price is 1544....LOL

324
5.76 may cap NUGT today unsure, last 562

324
es going for low of day test as expected, per that 1543.50 break...not complex,, simple horiz resist break

323
almost every MM sell level on tza being hit, followed by pause pb, to their next sell level

322
948 next tza

320
ES...may be in troubel here...broke prev posted 1543.50...

317
NUGT getting some volume here now up...also uvxy poss buy back again 3rd time? to hold overnite? maybe more uvyx...later

311
next...poss NUGT half exit

311
think higher uvxy but not risking the gain here for scalp. holding swing piece

310
tza at trgt again...watching reaction...looks like break higher but its at mini trgt now

304
trying for 8.37 to sell uvxy but dont have order in...in case it blows past it...but 837 likely stall if it gets there
..scalp[ uvxy not swing

304
if 1543.50 es beraks, then likely test es lows of day and pposs lower low

302
tza hit trgt...945 next scalp trgt up

301
rang

301
74% short ES almost ready to ring here, 1545.50 ES...

249
NUGT:  might sell half of the swing position if it moves up today...watching...5765--590 area...order in to sell at 585 but might change it, last 5.58

236
943 tza test is trgt 1 on uvxy

230
bought more uvxy
averaged up not down on the last uvxy so percent gain will be lil less but $ profit higher
72% rang short on ES hence uvxy


22322
MM gentle buying in russel here, spx....if they drop the russel bids, or the ask,,,,will add uvxy,,,,or 787 trgt, whichever first


UVXY buy/sell:  787/836

222
787 poss buy level uvxy if it gets down there b4 higher

215
UVXY bought few min ago now at 1.6% gain...

204
also tza hit 929 near the 925 buy area so tried some uvxy...tza buy area now 925 and 915

201
1550, 1560 es both poss higher....but have some uvxy in csae of rejection here in es...trading this part quickly,,,swing is slow piece

200
NUGT looks bad here but imo could go back up easily for swings...dollar toppy weakening

159
vse port: added 1000 uvxy at 8.02...will add more if able lower, else hold existing for higher...could go lower in uvxy first ,,,why bought less shares

129150
more chop here ....topping... tza to 925 would poss be buyable, same as this morn trgt


bought more at 5.58 nugt....us dollar looks like starting to get tired, would be good for nugt, tho dollar may need a lil more time

119
when the topping is done and get pullback...will provide opps for longs swings...too early atm imo

119
IF the ES does not bounce today tho...would be bearish imo
 failed test of overnite hi
we did NOT test 1560.50 ES during cash hours, atm

119
ES swing...this up down up down on daily es candles...is very bearish usually..aka distribution

110
***** MM have cleared UVXY for a move up to 872 over the .50...watching to see if it tries for up there...

108
1537 ES may find buyers for a stall and lil bounce if it gets there, 1540 last
not trading it....

106
970 tza still panic sell area and stretch trgt for day up...same as this morn trgt

102
tza did NOT stall at 9.50 as expected...potentially thats bullish for tza and uvxy, bearish for SPX  Russel

12501252
UCO  USO...next move lower...poss long entry in oil


790/805 buy back area...possibly...uvxy...will see what chart looks like if gets there

1249
UVXY: if higher, still have 2000 shares in vse.marketwatch.com port...if lower, may buy back more shares

1247
4 min later....heres tza 946 and uvxy 820/// out of half uvxy

1243
tza looking to hit 946 then drop...why i put that lim order on uvxy to try to fill near here

1242
will sell uvxy 8.20 if it hit, last 818,,half shares..keep half

1234
may sell half uvxy at 837 if able, last 824

1233
950 tza up then poss 930 down is pattern

12323
tza creeping up...but need to be careful on scalps as MM seem intent on trying to push tza to 930 lower...NOT trading that,,,just mentioning may present opps for active trading, or in uvyxy


1227
GIFT lol...nugt is "almost" in gift terrirory..not yet,swing or scalp...5.59 last

1224
notice how UVXY is following TZA...more than its following SPXU or ES????  3min charts


1223
uup  dx  us dollar ...might one more up move on the 60min chart...then it should settle down and that would allow nugt gdx to go back up

1223
MM are gently buying here....looks more like profit taking than long positino building...but nonetheless they are buying a lil in russel spx...one reason why may take a lil early exit in uvxy scalp and try to buy lower again....swing it doesnt matter-will hold swing piece

1221
836 and 863 approx trgts uvxy//// may sell at 836ish

1220
UVXY gave 5% and 10% gains today
uvxy in the middle now...on a "buy dip" or "take gains on bounce" for scalps, whichever comes first... not shorting it on bounce tho...if lower may buy some,,,if higher will exit half keep half and look to buy back again

1138
have order to sell NUGT swing 5.85 and will re-eval for buy back later, small gain of 1.7% if 5.85 is hit

1129
y: oreder to sell 2000 uvxy 8.64, and keep 2000

1128
oreder to sell 2000 uvxy 8.64, and keep 2000

1121
if lower 935 tza: poss buy area for uvxy

1120
revised TZA trgts again...960 MM sell,,,,inv bank still 970....

1119
at 834 trgt now uvxy...should stlall but looks like it might not

1115
VSE port: i plan to exit 2000 of 4000 uvxy when tza gets to its targets,

1115
oil longs may present an opp too...

1108
UVXY acting very nice today, BUT only does that when SPX at extreme high levels...else u get these small candels,,,personally i only like to trade uvxy vxx vix xiv when SPX is at extreme highs or lows, on daily charts

when spx is not at extreme highs...thats when swing get trapped in never ending lower and lower slow drip down, for 20-40% moves that take weeks but can decimate a portfolio

1105
*** TZA revised daily targets: new MM sell 956, Inv Bank sell leve 970
still may see the usual stall at the "old" MM levels and targets...smaller floor traders usually take them

1101
thres 942 tza...hit a min later...

1100
tza 942 and 949 trgts,,,,if it gets 949 it "should" stalll there...same # as b4...Inv Bank level...last 937

1059
this does NOT look good on the es chart here atm tho...that big red candle 15 and 60m

1056
oil hit swing trgt but here but got so choppy i exited...could go down when it gets like that

1056+
oil...uco....grrr took gains too early on THAT swing

1051
8.31
but next uvxy trgt higher, but saving the uvxy swing piece left, for higher...still have half

1050
810 was exact high, dropped to 7.97...

1049
got the 8.10 on uvxy...almost 6% gain in one hour :)

1046
799 UVXY trgt hit...810 next (812)

1043
raise sell to 8.10 on uvxy

1042
almost at target now, 794 for 799, uvxy

1038
it wont "usually" go right thru 2 targtes, going thru the first is normal, usually will get re-buyable pullback after target 2 is hit, for uvxy.. for scalps, of course swing targets diff and higher...this is "noise" for swings with mid-term hold period

1034
will sell 2000 shares uvxy at 7.99 if it gets there, order in to catch fast move...if it wants to blast thru 799 fine,,,still only selling half position there

1030
theres a lot of resist at tza 949 if it makes it up there
Invesment Bank sell level tza = 949

1029
if that ES 3min candle wasnt so big, i'd have taken UVXY gains exactly at trgt 781/782...hit 782 and stalled, down a lil here....but the big candle on ES kept me in uvxy a lil longer

1028
MM have bids here now on the russel,,,,may stall the down

1027
UVXY at 781 now. considering t1 achieved...watching for next 800, poss stall here tho ES looks bearish 3min


1026
UVXY t2 =8.00...will give it a chance to see where it wants to go

1014
trgt 1 uvxy is 782

1005
took long 765 UVXY mayu go to 7.54 before higher

1001
TZA panic buy levels are at 8.95 and 9.05 today...may buy some there, or uvxy

959
ES made overnite high of 1560.50,last 1557.50


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

No comments:

Post a Comment