tza may hit 940...927 last
345
out of silver small gain 4 cents...dont want to hold this one overnight
340
but i'll prob exit silver short scalp today
339
SLV could drop to 2660...not today...but could do a wedge and lower low....
329
27.70 slv trgt test...last 2777
327
check out ES volume here on this move up,,,sooooo low
324
if dollar tests its daily highs. ..could push silver down by 4pm..not expecting a lot
309
not ready yet...but might add more UVXY...will be 1000 shares in vse port if i add
305
y: ok TZA at 930 test...and MM have cleared it for 935
means...uvxy could work here
nothing aggressive BUT this is first time today they r starting to drop russel bids...may not follow thru but the initial stage is set
255
aks: one of those "buy second lower low" using daily instead of intrday...had decent supp at 3.45 that broke lower..but 345 b4 gave nice bounce
254
AKS: 3.50--3.60 trgt approx...will eval more later..last 336
253
AKS up 1% from entry hour ago..
250
UNLESS these MM drop the russel bids...OR 751 uvxy...i wont add more today...still have half tho
238
565 NUGT is a former MM sell level...tho 580 new one...the old one usually "sticks" on the first re-visit
238
580 will prob cap nugt today if it can get there, may not make it. i have no position
234
UVXY: have order to buy 1000 shares at 7.53 if it gets there, not sooner. vse port.
if it does not get filled, will just keep remaing position (3000 shares atm), having taken scalp 2% gain earlier today on other piece
229
2772 new slv trgt
210
long AKS steel
one could also use X instead
203
NUGT: a look at NEM vs GDX shows NEM is stronger. NEM is now at resist...of course it can break resist higher...but GDX and NUGT are not at resist and weaker than NEM. also silver affects gdx
152
2774 test expecting in slv and observing reaction if gets such test lower, for short
short silver on a tight leash since its intradya contratrend....
145
real trt to short SLV is 2803 but entered a bit early here, dipping toe in...1000 shares short in vse port
ZSL and DSLV aer just too low vol and gappy for me to use here...at end of day for swings would be ok but not atm for more shares needed in scalps
145
2780 shorted SLV...one could use zsl 2x or DSLV 3x but i chose SLV cuz higher volume and fills on slv....later in day if i decide to hold overnite, might trade the SLV for less $amt in DSLV
Portfolio update below.
From http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port
About This Game
Game TypeAdvanced
Players1
Start DateSep 28, 12
End DateSep 27, 13
TRADE NOW!Stats
- Net Worth$138,703.77
- Overall Gains$38,703.77
- Overall Returns38.70%
- Today's Gains0.02%
- Buying Power$211,203.23
- Cash Remaining$72,499.47
- Cash Borrowed$0.00
- Short Reserve$0.00
Portfolio Allocation & Performance
AMD
TZA
UVXY
VXX
Ranking
116
sold 3000 shares uvxy in vse port, holding 3000 still....only 2% gain but had many shares...plan was to scalp some...may buy back later...or buy something else
1256108
bear MM starting to push here,,,,acting as expected...
bull MM still holding bid tho...
atm....officially bull MM winning but data suggest bear MM will push this lower and bulls give in (intraday stuff not swing)
so imo..drop coming
1255
*** ES some MM are fighting "friendly" here LOL>...could see something ....algo battle
this is not rare but its not everyday...lil disagreement now in MM...some buying some selling
1250
MM still waiting there to buy russl...so watching reactions...
1250
a few min later...tza at 939 trgt test area...watching
1244
uvxy at 785 resist...personal acct taking some off here 1.5% gain....vse port holding longer...not enough shares in vse
12341238
1470/1480 seems like a reasonable pb in spx eventually...even there it would still be in weekly uptrend LOL...over 1423 its weekly up
i dont expect THAT to happen on this single swing short signal...longer term trgt...much up down b4 then poss
that would put hem at 1552ish es atm
1234
MM are PERSISTENT here on the bids...tza sell level 939 atm...need to lower iwm bids...higher sell level tza...for any real move....still think they will drop the iwm bids, just takes time in topping
1232
will we get the "reasonable" 1550 es test, to observe reaction?
1231
bull harami starting to form on 60min uvxy candles
1215
TZA: first time its managed to get over its 15MA on 3min chart since 1015: may be set for sideways then bounce in TZA...to lower hi at first
1201
nonetheless...MM are KEEPING the bid here on russel...pennies from mkt price
1149
room in the vse port...added UVXY there also
now at 6000 shares uvxy vse.marketwatch.com port
1143
a test of 1550 would be reasonable...and will see reaction there if it does test...hold or break?
1143
1555 is ES overnite resist level....watching to see how it reacts on this test here
overnite, ES dropped 10 points from this level, of course on low overnite volume
1136
MM being forced long on vxx...should boucne coming minutes hours..at uvxy 767 last
1129
or, if the MM level is penetrated WITH FORCE then price can move, as the MM will "give up" to the stronger INV Banks
1128
MM are still hoolding bids here on russel....until they drop it, wont see large move lower...watching
1122
3min bear diverg forming in SPY 3min charts now: price:macd hist and price:stoch
and to a lesser extent price:rsi
1120
Inv Bank: tza panic buy / sell levels now at : 917/970...those prob wont change for rest of day, or not change much
1118
Watching for bull W to form in 3min UVXY chart
1105
72% long almost ready to ring on uvxy at 782..if it hits 785 it will prob ring
1104
MM: allowing for small test on tza to 944...still holding up russel atm but 944 tza trgt mini...960 later
1102
15min uvxy candle pattern: see it? bullish
1059
strat: when the forced long opps first show up...wait for price to move lower, to a lower support area, and go long...can take hours or days to get to trgts depending on trading timeframe one is interested in...usually in houyrs will see a decent move tho
1057
those "forced short" like vxx moves are usually temp...price goes down, then usually over the forced short levels, in this case over 2065 vxx
1057
VXX: there was a "forced short MM at 20.60--20.65" block of sales,,,so they pushed vxx down...but the real direction is MM net long,,,another reason for entry in uvxy
1056
VXX: there was a "forced short MM at 20.60--20.65" block of sales,,,so they pushed vxx down...but the real direction is MM net long,,,another reason for entry in uvxy
1049
now we only need uvxy to get to 799 instead of 817 due to added shares
1049
rect trgt = rect hi + (rect hi-rect low)
1047
: BOUGHT more uvxy here as ES and tza acting as expected
averaged up not down, so obviously percent roi will be lower but dollar gain higher
1042
if ES 3min does NOT pb and go sideways a lil...may burn itself out and see a shoot star bear
1041
2 minutes later...heres expected 1551.75 test ES...
1038
micro timeframe: over 1548 3min ES bullish...under that bearish....tho think its going back down today
1038
ES should hit 1551.75, stall, pb a lil,,,then may or may not break over 1552...watching...last 1550
1038
uvxy up to 794 here, stall, then down to 770 would all be OK imo....if the 794 resist holds
1035
next 3---9 candles on 3min chart may set direction for next few hours...similar to yesterdays candle direction setups
1032
UVXY did NOT yet make the expected 2nd push lower on 3min charts...if it does not go lower first, would be bullish and may overshoot 815...but for now still expect lower low then 815 higher
its moving sideways a bit here but that could be bearish digestion b4 one more lil push lower, 3min, then up
1029
MM are willing to buy some UVXY at 7.70 fwiw...could go under that but they r willing to pay that price atm
will watch to see if they actually buy it or not if it gets there, and how much they buy
1028
UVXY 3min chart...one more push lower,,,then sideways...is pattern looking for...same in tza
1026
first pb on uvxy will likely be bought,,,so willing to endure a move down intraday here...it likely will bounce on first move lower in 3min charts....may bounce to lower hi, or higher hi,,,will see
815 trgt 1 for now uvxy still
1019
nugt did pull back right after exit at 565
1019
my initial trgts for nugt were higher...still think it goes higher, but for now i'm playing it safe due to silver action as posted b4
i'd rather "miss" the rest of the move up then suffer a loss of gains....the trade did not go according to plan tho it worked,,so i got out...was not expecting such vicous silver move
Market Makers were really crowding the 565 nugt area (crowding GDX and NEM not nugt itself...so i decided to take an exit....Inv Banks still have higher targets but they are VERY patient LOL
1019
UVXY trgt 1 is 8.15 if able...no order to sell but will watch reaction there...expecting a stall there on uvxy unless a "blast" comes...slow move up will likely stall
1017
IWM gap theory acting as expected: IWM put in a lower low...now watching to see how much it sustains...may take tza to its trgt posted at 930am
1016
5.65 took gains on nugt here for now...profits locked in and will re-eval entry later...it may move higher but imo better opps atm
next trgt on nugt is 5.77...but on sidelines for now
1000
silver futures SI and etf SLV took a pretty nasty hit here, with a lower low on daily...its recovreing but imo SLV is going to make a lower high on daily, then pb...if it can get a higher low then it can break out of rectangle, else even lower silver.
What does this mean? For me, for swings,, this means that i'm going to actively trade NUGT and take profits on nugt's lower high and look to re-enter. its true gold is holding up better than silver, but i dont like the silver action hence will be cautious here and actively trade NUGT GDX.
953
atm gap theory acting as expected.
gap theory step 1: testing low of day as expected, iwm. step 2 is poss small pause, followed by step 3: break lower
947
IWM has not tried to fill its gap v much in first 15min of trading. gap theory says a lower low is likely because of that
944
those MM readings mean they want it at 920 if they can get it again, but real trt for sell is 960
943
MM tza buy/sell: 920/947 ... 920/960
941
MM buying russel here a little...to hard to tell why...but atm buying,,,nothing agressive...
i wouldnt read much into MM buying atm unless continues...may just be holding up price in order to distrbute sell more
936
NUGT just hit the 550 trgt 1. see much higher nugt for swings
936
MM and Inv Banks on UVXY VXX are all over the map now...hard to get a decent read...they will settle down in 5--30min for better read...hovering around 830 sell tho atm...but they could pull those and raise them higher....buys are near 760
933
LOL nugt up to its daily antics volatil again
actually nugt doing well considering silver DOWN...crazy silver gold slv gld si gc divergences unusual
931
poss exit a piece of uvxy at tza 960 if it gets ther,, 944 last...960 is trgt 2 on tza today
930
uvxy im trying for 8.47 target 3....trgt 2 is 8.33
Trades can be viewed at the links below.
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings
For details on the portfolio see this posting:
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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