this is one reason i do not like vse.marketwatch.com....doesnt let u fix things AH...it should allow AH trades
358
i fear that the action in silver may temp adversely affect NUGT
358
sold half NUGT shares(at cost breakeven)....to reduce risk on nugt swing...holding other half still...will re-eval adding again later
313
926 tza and 788 uvxy buyable here imo
309
idea: above the mkt TZA 930 or below mkt ES 1551.50 short
307
getting lil pb in tza,,,lil up on es...normal thus far
303
this is first drop in bid in long time todya,,,nothing major but letting off a bit for now, in russel...
again the first one doesnt always follow thru, often lower b4 higher, and this is not a big drop bid
302
TZA cleared by MM to test 1 cent under high of day
256
soon BAC will be "too far" from its daily 5 MA and short setup
255
if i dont see at least a little selling by MM today in spx or russel, i'll likely reduce # of share i have in uvxy...not all of them just reduce...
227
aapl not joing this lil party in spx...and it was the leader b4
222
Will Wall street send a message to Fed in coming hours days..."we want more from the Fed"???
218
ES major palyers have stepped away to 1549ish es,,,will be smaller ones if it gets a push, atm
216
finally heres 1553 test...watching reaction
214
why isnt ES testing at least 1553 higher???? thats bearish imo for ES SPX
206
ES "should have" spike higher than it did there on first reaction: bearish imo
200
nugt moving -1:1 with dollar now
159
tza 9.56 trgt on fomc surge higher, 907 and 917 on drop lower
(on a sruge, the gap in tza could "overfill")
157
uvxy 820, 848 and 947 major levels atm imo UVXY
156
limit orders set to sell on uvxy at various levels to catch some moves if it reacts to 2pm fomc
vse port: only set at extreme for now, one level,
152
900 910 917 are the "real" panic levels in TZA...picked one number 907 instead LOL
148
but if charts support it, first drop can give a trade opp entry,,, with a lil better price due to delay...IF charts also support the drop in bid...same goes for drops in ask, raise in ask or bid, etc
147
MM just dropped bids a little....in russel...just under lows of day (vs was pennies away from price b4)..nothing dramatic
also the first "big" drop in the bid is usually NOT an immediate aggressive reaction lower tho sometimes happens,,,,first is usually a retail daytrader test....often they will raise it again if the test fails (if retail doesnt sell)...today the MM have NOT had any big drop in bid,,,last drop is small
137
over 822....if it can get that...uvxy likely to break over todays highs
114
US dollar starting to move a bit here....could see NUGT reaction
108
will sell half of nugt at 5.69 if it gets there, and hold other half.
1248
poss looking to buy back aapl 436 area later swing if it gets down there, (posted exit in prev aapl long b4 the 560 trgt which was hit)
1246
NUGT waking up a bit early here as DX UUP continue the sideways bear shuffle in its 15min chart of us dollar
1229
not saying it gets down there but if it decides for lower instead of higher, i'd be interested in buying that level tza
1229
TZA panic buy level atm is 9.04 today
1222
normal to see ES lower and then higher, b4 the 2pm FOMC
1200
MM stubbornly holding the bid near lows....watching for them to drop it but havent yet...or for price to pierce it
1158
if trading vxx or uvxy: the green candles aer larger and faster than the red ones, tho often have to endure thru many smaller red candles while waiting for green
1149
DX UUP 15min charts need another 1-2 hours....may see move in nugt after that...sooner up in nugt would be particularly bullish for it imo
1146
tza almost at the expected test of prior high....reaction impt
LOL the MM bid at 94.20 IWM...a "stop cleaner" piece away from low
1145
uvxy could go up 850 then blelow 810 lol
1144
russel: MM aer STILL holding the bid right near here,,,pennies away from price...for now....
1142
50,000 shares UVXY just flew off red time sales: may see some chop above and below that number
1130
for swings: if ES gets 1543 (mayb 1545) lower, then the 1531 is likely test lower, also likely to break under the 1531 in swing timeframes
1540 ES is very impt swing support area...if that falls then new lows likely under 1531
1123
MM russle bids at 944 now...watching if that tests, and reaction (penetrate or bounce)
1120
MM tza cleared for 936 test higher
1119
MM are STILL holding bids under todays lows LOL>.....for now...
uy: they must drop the bid, or the level needs to be penetrated by price
11171118
72% short rang, ES
at 1550 here
that "1549 b4 1553" ES post b4...could be potent if it triggers
failure to test high and "crowding" to sell under it
1114
normal to retest those volume lows, and often break for lower low
1114
1035 ES chart...see the volume, 5min chart? bearish
1112
MM continue to hold the bid, so THAT piece is NOT in place for short setup,,,but charts suggest it could break...not a perfect storm tho
1111
if ES sees 1549 lower b4 1553 higher...this suggests 1549 breaks to the 1545ish trgt lower
1108
now vse port has enough shares to take small gain on 2000 shares and hold 4000 shares....no exit yet on the 2000
1107
vse port: added 2000 shares more UVXY
1100
155.56 spy is shortable area..is there now...using MACD method on 60min chart
MACD strategy method: when the hist ticks down, note the price of the open on that candle. then look for a move lower, followed by a move back up to that open price. the open price of the tick down candle is the short area. applies better to swings than scalps. ES approx 1552 short area
1058
if ES can get up to 1553 again in next 1-2 hours, i'll prob add more UVXY in the vse port, 2000 more shares
1051
Trading strat: when one sees shoot stars on 60min like we have in ES SPY: first trade is short the approach to star high,,,second trade is short aagain near the open of the prior candle....ES now at the open of prior
hence the triple dip opp on uvxy
1047
another buy opp for triple dippers in uvxy here
1044
2 bearish candle in the spy 60min charts atm
1042
another 2.5% gain opp for uvxy holders, 3% first trade, 2.5% this one...vse port still hodling it all tho and waiting
1040
MM buy levels remain just under the lows on the russell..watching if they r peneterated, or if they drop the bid
1038
1545 es still trgt lower
1038
heres the expected test of lows in russel that MM "allowed" cleared per prev post
the lows look breakable here imo, on the first try possibly
1032
i will NOT SELL the swing VXX up there, just the uvxy...VXX holding for higher than that
1030
Have an order to sell UVXY if it gets to 9.47, may sell sooner but have that order out there in case of sudden quick 16% move up... simple strat: order set near prior high in UVXY
1019
MM just dropped russel bids...to low of day to allow test of lows
1018
for swings: US dollar continues to look tired and toppy...eventually this could send NUGT silver uslv rocketing higher,,,,takes time
1017
right now: MM continue to hold the bids very tight to price, it looks like they are trying to push for another marginal high intraday today if they can get it (lower low in tza)....but that could change anytime, think it will eventually....but atm continues bullish activity...imo the rips are places to short vs buying this here
1014
larger positinos in UVXY: chance here to buy back shares sold at 3% gain,,,for double dip
1012
UVXY trgt 1 for vse port is 8.49 if able
1008
imo... we do NOT get many opps during the year to trade the VIX long (VXX UVXY)...so need to actively trade it when the opps present... most of year its short VIX or 'stay out of VIX" setups
but the long VIX gives some of the best profitable trades since it moves so fast...when its ready, fear is so strong and pushes the UVXY to wild levels
1005
TZA needs to get over 940 for any sustainable upside in tza or down in russle
1005
MM buy level remains right at todays lows in russel,,,cant move lower until that level is penetrated, or until MM drop the bids
1003
amazing how 3 points in ES can translate to 3% in UVXY;....ONLY DOES THAT when ES near extremes
1000
larger positions in UVXY can take a quick 3% profit now in uvxy bought this morn...personal acct scaling out, vse port holding it all for now
959
UVXY making daily highs new ...before tza: bullish for both of them
958
for now 1553 ES remains resist with at 1545 trgt 1 intraday imo
956
MM just raised ask in russel TF up to 952ish...ABOVE prior daily highs...
952
so if tza hits 939ish, would expect a stall there in tza and pb on first try
952
MM bid is just under todays lows on the russell, for now, that may change later, i believe it will,,but thats bullish MM behvior, for now
950
1545 ES is approx halfway point on the last move up, test there is reasonable and could see under 1545
947
NUGT swing trgt 1 is wherever its at when GDX hits 38.50, if able
945
MM buying GDX 37.41
943
bought 2000 more shares uvxy, vse port at the 1553 #2 hit
want enough shares to scalp it and swing it both
. still room for 2000-4000 more shares in uvxy, curr holding 4000 shares
940
next buy level on UVXY: ES 1558 if it can get up there
939
UVXY back at es 1553 buy level here... another opp
937
NUGT up nicely 1% atm...has a lot more upside in this volatile etf
934
filled on buy of 2000 uvxy at es1553 as planned
929
SPX remains near extreme levels imo, so i'll be using UVXY as the fade vehcile....will try to pick up some ES 1553 if able, and will add to it....i took gains other day on all uvxy, so $$ in port now to buy it all back, up to 6,000 shares in vse port
Fed announce Wednesdays are often slow drift higher and bullish bias on ES SPY but not always...could get some volatility ...will watch
Trades can be viewed at the links below.
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings
For details on the portfolio see this posting:
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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