Monday, March 4, 2013

Monday thoughts

335
2275 VXX trgt to buy, but will wait until 355-358pm


i'm going to buy VXX at the close, if 4pm swing system says exit upro long and go short via spxu


took scalp profi in UCO, holding swing positions in it


i have now exited all xiv uvxy vxx stuff in my personal account and taken gains early here, in view of poss 4pm signal switch...tho it may not come, either way i'll reduce risk by taking an earlier gain

i still have swings in UCO  USLV  NUGT and scalp in UCO


if tza was at 1032, and we got an exit signal on upro 4pm,, THAT would be admirable


im noit sure...if SPY closes over 152.60 it may call for a take profits in upro and reverse to spxu...will post at 3:55pm

242
MM still buying here, es 1520 for now

240
hmm theres a chance that 4pm swing signal may switch from long to short today, indicating exit long and reverse to short...will watch it...the system does NOT always automaticly reverse long to short,,,sometimes it will exit long and be in cash instead...and might not get any exit signals at all

229
1040 and 1036 intraday trgts lower still

229
MM bought 1520 ES>..as expected, ES has made new highs :)

225
the UCO scalp here is diff trade than UCO swing..i willkeep the swing even if i exit scalp earlier..diff accounts

224
1000 shrs did long oil scalp UCO here

205
if it can get to 1065 tza --that may present opp to reshort UVXY, shoret VXX, or long XIV (re-entry double dip)...unsure

156
y: nonetheless, took the 7% scalp day profit on UVXY short here

155
LOL ...they are now back at 1516 buy level...they just raised it...trying to push it higher

154
MM have dropped buy level to 1512...they started the lil push up to new high ES, now watching if it can go on its own or not with 1512 lowered bid

this is how they test retail....


129
they bought 1516 ES , and have raised thier ask...

128
*** Market Maker alert: ES may see new highs today. TZA new lows intraday. IF They maintain these levels, tza 1040 trgt...will need to see if it maintains or not

124
idea: not trading in the vse port, maybe persobnal account: long USLV silver if 8023 DX hit

123
intraday, today if DX dollars gets down to 82.23.... possible fireworks in metals spx higher, and tlt lower

121
1048 tza MM buy level and trgt 1 if short tza

118
1512.50 is curr MM buy level ES

116
last lil move up there on the 3min es iwm...market makers were buying there

100
you may see NUGT outperform VXX and XIV in coming days,percenwise

1259
this candle looks pretty nasty, DX us dollar

1258
US dollar continues its persistent sideways dance but it keeps looking vulnerable to break lower, and higher spx metals nugt xiv

DX getting another red candle on the 15min chart...eventually may get followthru lower and a break

1251
i CANCELLED the order to short tza...was almost filled but missed by 2 cents..will re-eval later

1248
notice how "far" gdx and nugt are from their 5 period daioly moving average...usually bounces here, even in a downtrend

for swing, may or may not move today nugt

1246
grr MM now lowered their sell on tza to 1073 hehe...not chasing it, tho could work here, but the XIV UVXY NUGT should do well so not chasing tza

1236
tza "should" get 1083, over the 1075,,has not hit yet..still trying to fill that short

1235
xiv too, and uvxy short, here, tho i already have and not adding

1235
NUGT buyable here if not already in,,,,i'm not adding more

1235
 1073 tza....cmon pop up then down to fill the short lim order 1075

1231
tza 1084 market maker level to sell, so may get a filll to short at 1075 below their level

1221
: tza may see 1090, starting with a lower trgt to short, due to this lil surge here

1220
lim order in to short 2000 shrs tza 10.75 if it gets there

1217
will prob short tza 1075ish--waiting but thats near its trgt

1131
same tza trgts,,,and looks breakable here too

1120
meanwhile nugt moved lower :( but initial entry and NOT adding to it ,yet

1120
from entry this morn ===UVXY short--now at 5% gain and at its prior lim order sell trgt, but have moved trgt as posted b4

XIV hit the 2010 prior trgt


1113
UVXY short from this morn--now almost at 4% gain...near its trgt 1 now but holding this a bit longer since dollar and es both look breakable :)

1105
us dollar DX looks breakable lower still here, in coming minutes hour

1056
notice the 60min XIV chart is "starting" to break higher here, could take awhile but see higher XIV, lower UVXY VXX

1050
GDX should test 3800 which would push NUGT higher (initial trgt on nugt gdx)

1041
CANCELLED order to sell xiv...will do manually...may go over the prior trgt lim order


1035
also in russell spx, the Market Makers have loosened up a bit and not a eager to sell as few minutes ago...tho still same trgts on tza

1035
bought nugt there mostly in reaction to DX UUP us dollar movement

1018
if tza gets up to 1070-1075 trgt then may add more uvxy short

1016
xiv long is always an alt to UVXY short, just use 2x the dollar value for xiv long since xiv is 1x and uvxy is 2x

1016
vse: shorted 900 UVXY. ,may add more later

1004
1044 and 1035 tza trgts lower, Market Maker levels

1003
lim order at 20.09 XIV to take profit in XIV from friday if it gets there, last 1983 up 1%ish...will still keep the longer "swing" xiv past 2009, the 20.09 is for Fridays scalp posiition

1001
Look at DX us dollar, 3min and 15min charts...red candles...getting pb we expected...more down for dollar imo

952
correction: the xiv in vse port i exited with profit on friday, and do NOT have it in vse port...its still in  my personal account which is reason for mixup...

947
also watching DX us dollar futures or uup....
DX looks vulnerable to a pb, which would be good for higher silver and spx if dx goes lower


946
atm, Market Makers gently selling, with the aim to get TZA to 1070 if able...1070 tza may be a shortable area for tza / vxx/uvxy, or long TNA XIV UPRO

i'm not trading the MM selling russel, not buying tza for the 1070 trgt...waiting
still have the XIV from friday, up 1% atm but may dip lower in XIV if they try for 1070 tza

943
4pm swing system long upro update: The system will NOT give an exit signal to take profits on the upro spx long, it is impossible for exit conditions to be met today since certain conditions must "persist" over at least one night, and those conditions dont exist yet.

The system averages 11 days hold, with min 1 and max 46, since year 2000.

931
Silver futures overnight hit a low of 27.93 tho they are trading now at 28.56 . But i'll be watching what they do here in the first hour or so. possibly vulnerable to retest of 2793, if so may take a long scalp




Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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