Friday, March 22, 2013

Friday thoughts


400
portfolio now 50% cash...having exited bunch of UVXY today...will look for opps next week to add...but no rush to get over 50%

i kept the NUGT since i sold the uvxy and have room in the port to hold it, so risk is ok...also it didnt move much last 2 hours so giving it more baking time

356
ES has "untested" lows from last nite...not tested during cash hours...they often test those futures highs lows as we know

352
may need to wait for next week,,,but want higher... 8.62 remains trgt not 850...next week it will likely be higher level

352
MM aer NOT interested in selling uvxy at 8.50 fwiw..they want higher

350
MM dropped 20 cents, iwm bids...not much but dropped...

348
still buying russel pennies under here...watching...MM
this is susceptible to a pull the rug out drop bid...but for now holding it

345
some battling MM now: some trying to buy, some sell...if they keep selling then the buying MM will step out

344
MM have raised bids here...buying to hold up for now...watching to see if they continue or reverse to sell in next 15min

339
for a small gain....i prob will exit NUGT today before 4pm that i bought earlier todya....explain why later
...will post if i exit


327

i do like uvxy here for swing tho....held up well today, and ES is at resistance or near it...even a small pb now on es could send uvxy soaring next week

so holding half of it, exited half

327
NUGT now trying breakout b4 the close...watching

326
btw, 8.43 is a previously posted MM level on uvxy...notice how it stalled there, and this level does NOT correspond to any clear horizontal resist or prior high..they often stick their buy sell levels in between, to confuse... 851 is the prio hi but trying for an overshoot to 860 stop cleaner

322
have order to sell uvxy (half of it) at 8.60 if able, above the 8.43 trgt

322
uvxy just hit 842 or 1 cent under 843 stall area, a red candle now forming and expected...will stil give time to break...normally would take some off here...personal acct taking some profits.....vse port holding it all for now

320
LOL exactly what happnd...seconds later tza surges...
nasty those Market Makers


319
MM raised ask...will give short time,,,then will exit if doesnt move....often they will drop it again right after raising...games

319
MM still holding the ask down in russell...thus i give uvxy a lil longer

310
843 trgt on uvxy...may stall there but will give chance to break higher since its 3pm-ish

309
UVXY getting some vol now on these green 3min candles...

306
this looks BREAKABLE lower....

306
ES now at support test....they have RAISED ask again to give room to bounce,,,will watch to see if they start to sell again,,,for now have stepped aside, but have NOT raised bids to buy here

304
thats why we see ES moving lower here....:)  red candle 3min chart...watching now if it sustains

also notice how the MM dropped the ask when the candle was GREEN...to confuse ppl...takes a min for it to take effect...painting charts

302
Ask is near 1550 ES, fluctuating around there +-1pt

302
MM holding the ask here near price in russel...it wont move higher unless they raise the ask...bearish action,,,for tza up to .50--.55 trgt

258
72% rang...even tho a lil green candle formin in 3min ES chart....
at 1459 es

257
72% short ES almost ready to ring, not quite yet

255
GDX NUGT have a 60min bull flag that i'm trading...tho flag has NOT broken higher so early entry,,,and could still go lower and still be bullish flag

246
same trgt in tza: 950/955 higher

245
MM just   dropped their ask again...selling near here, tza may rise...
that's one action thats keeping me patient in uvxy...the Market Maker gentle selling vs dropping the bid only

234
actually, change mind,,,theres money avail in port,,,bought NUGT here 5.75 and may add more later, may sell half of it if it moves today...2000 shares in vse port

this is time of day when it can make a nice move

229
NUGT could work here but i'll wait, since have lot of positinos in port...if i didnt i'd build nugt again here with GDX 38.12...may break higher

227
may try up for 1552 first b4 lower

227
ES is at 70% sell short now intraday scalp, waiting for 72% is safer but lil moves up might be used to build a position short, here at 1549 ES then hgiher


207
uvxy creeeping higher toward its trgt 1

206
MM just raised sell levels to March 20 highs...may see some up here (down in tza), watching reaction

204
tza should test 950/955 higher per this MM selling russel

159
MM: they are selling russel here, at this price

151
look at US dollar...continues its move lower as we have been expecting

150
Difference: today, at least right here for a little, we see the Market Makers SELLING the russel a little (dropped the ask, and ask is near or at mkt price). this is much different than dropping the bids...both could result in lower prices in russel (higher tza) but the lowered ask is much more bearish (and active) than a lowered bid....yest we watched them drop bids but not ask....

148
MM: tza levels 935/950 buy/sell

129
interesting that ES is up here at 1550 but UVXY VXX have not made new lows

1234
well uvxy missed my sell order while gone by just a few pennies. I've now CANCELLED that order and raised the price...i'll sell at 8.47 or 8.53 if able////

949
if UVXY happens to move fast, and it could at this hour, then it may overshoot 8.35ish resist up to 8.43/4.49ish...why i set the sell order in between there...if stalls near 835 may exit there a lil lower,,,but order is in to catch a fast move...

Often is helpful to use limit orders when trading UVXY due to its fast moves (both to buy and sell)...more impt for scalps than longer term swing holds

940
SLW may be better than GDX nugt for a bit here...note slw is up today vs gdx nem down...slw had earnings yest...i do not have positions in any of them

938
MM on TZA: 913 buy, 949 sell...these early morning readings will often fluctuate quite a bit...atm it suggests MM are just on sidelines here

933
i exited oil UCO from yesterdays buy.
i think oil has more up, but i wanted to take this small gain and re-eval later...i did NOT enter at a great p[rice yesterday, tho a 1% gain was squeezed out...also want to reduce risk in the portfolio since there are a lot of open positions in it

923
oil is up a little this morning. i will be watching for a possible quick exit, small gain, from UCO bought yesterday...will see what it does first 15min, hour, and 5 hours


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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